Embarrassed citizens plan retaliation

The Australian - 1 December 2008

"A relatively small but well-funded group of middle-class Bangkokians have turned Thailand into an embarrassment internationally.

If you travel beyond the trendy enclaves of inner Bangkok, you'll find many Thais are embarrassed and angry about what the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) is doing to the country - hijacking airports and now threatening to do the same with sea ports if Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat doesn't resign.

There is so much anger that it feels like the country is about to erupt. It will take a miracle for there not to be widespread bloodshed in Bangkok this week.

Until now, pro-government supporters have been lobbing a few grenades, but there are rumours that they are arming themselves with more strategic weapons for an assault on Suvarnabhumi airport.

"We want to free the airport," one pro-government supporter told The Australian.

And they don't believe the police or army will stop them.

The situation has deteriorated so much that some commentators are now talking about civil war, as they believe the situation is beyond peaceful resolution.

And while the PAD protesters detest Mr Somchai and his links to former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, pro-government supporters are also growing increasingly frustrated with Mr Somchai's inability to solve the crisis.

The army and police don't support him either, with yet another round of rumours of a coup racing around Bangkok.

A coup, however, would need the tacit approval of King Bhumibol Adulyadej, but he is said to be ailing, with many decisions being made by Crown Prince Maha Vajiralongkorn. The prince is a good mate of Thaksin, so it is unlikely he will want to get rid of the Government that is seen as Thaksin's puppet.

This leaves a situation where pro- and anti-government supporters are set for a showdown.

But despite their country being in chaos, the sly sense of humour of the Thais is still evident.

"Let's go to Mumbai. At least they have an airport," is one the blackest examples of the many jokes circulating, and bringing albeit brief grins back to the land famous for its smiles."

Thaksin's Arabian Business interview

30 November 2008

This long interview was completed by Arabian business last weekend before the PAD's occupation of BKK airport.

If Thaksin Shinawatra is feeling the heat, then he's not showing it. Thailand has an arrest warrant out for its former prime minister. The UK has just revoked his visa, and some Western countries are distancing themselves from the man they once championed as their greatest ally in Asia. And yet all Shinawatra can do is shrug.

"Do you know how many countries there are in the world? There are 197. And only 17 have an extradition treaty with Thailand," he notes with a thin smile. "Better still, only 10 of those treaties are active. So, don't you worry about me, I still have many places to stay."

The poor have no choice but to live in a capitalist economy, but they have no capital. They have no access to it. If you give them that access, it changes everything.      One such place is Dubai, where Shinawatra is resting comfortably in one of the emirate's top five-star hotels. He might feel entitled to a break, too, as it has been a busy 2008 for the man first nominated to Thailand's top office in a landslide election victory in 2001.

Two years ago he was overthrown in a bloodless coup while visiting the UN in New York. Exiled after months of massive anti-government protests, he ended up in the UK, where he bought Premier League football club Manchester City.

After the 2007 election, in which his new People Power Party won a healthy majority, and the forming of a new democratic government by his allies, Shinawatra returned in early 2008 to face his corruption charges in legal courts. However, he and his wife skipped bail - they were convicted in absentia, and a lengthy stay in a Bangkok jail awaits them if they return.

The UK froze his reputed $4bn of assets, forcing him to sell Manchester City to Abu Dhabi's Sheikh Mansour. To add to his troubles, his UK visa was revoked - oh, and his wife divorced him last week.

"It's been a busy few months," he says, laughing at his own predicament. And it's about to get even busier, as Shinawatra reveals he intends to make a comeback in politics, tackle global poverty, reorganise the Middle East's healthcare system - and while he's at it, establish a sizeable foundation to look after Asians hit by the financial crisis.

The really tricky one on the above ‘Shinawatra to-do list' is return to politics. On October 21, 2008, five members of a nine-member special bench of the Supreme Court found him guilty of a conflict of interest and sentenced him to two years in jail.

The judges found that Shinawatra had ultimate oversight over the Financial Institutions Development Fund, a government-run agency that bought up bank collateral and mortgages. Shinawatra's wife won a competitive auction for a piece of land owned by the FIDF in 2003, and the judges found that his wife's purchase of the land was done on his behalf, thus constituting a conflict of interest.

Given the two-year jail term that awaits him upon his his return - not to mention a long list of political enemies who would like to see the back of him for good - a return to his homeland doesn't sound like the wisest move.

"I have no choice," he insists. "In the beginning after I was ousted, my wife asked me not to go back to politics. She didn't like politics, and the whole family went through a lot of hardship so I didn't go back.

"But now I have been cornered because the country is going down deeply," he continues. "The confidence is not there; the trust among the foreign community is not there; the poor people in rural areas are in difficulty.

With me at the helm I can bring confidence quickly back to Thailand, and that is why we have to find a mechanism under which I can go back into politics."

What does his wife think about this? "She has divorced me," he responds, bluntly - end of subject.

He admits that going back now would be too risky, but insists that "time is on my side". Last week tens of thousands of anti-government protesters marched on Thailand's parliament.

The protesters, from the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) blocked all streets leading to parliament and besieged other state buildings, forcing MPs to cancel their business, in response to a grenade attack on the protester's camp that killed one of their supporters earlier this month.

Violence flared and as Arabian Business went to press, the head of Thailand's army had asked the government to dissolve parliament and call new elections - circumstances hardly conducive to a return for the former prime minister.

"I can stay here and do some business, enjoy life a bit. But I have to go back for my people and my supporters, most of whom are poor or middle class," he says.

"In the past the poor didn't see the future - they only saw the bitter past and short present," he continues. "After I became PM I gave them hope, I brought them freshness. They saw a future for their children to go to school and for their crops. They were happy - even taxi drivers were happy - and I brought the economy back to normal."

But could he really be PM again? Shinawatra is adamant that it could happen.

"The coup is still there - it has been transformed from a military coup to a judicial coup," he explains. "I think a lot depends on the power of the people - if they feel they are in hardship and they need me to help them, I will go back.

"If the King feels I can be beneficial I will go back and he may grant me a royal pardon," he continues. "If they don't need me and the King feels I can make no difference then I will stay here and do business. I will live my life with friends."

Today Shinawatra is in the Gulf rekindling close friendships with business and political leaders in the region. He said he has been made to feel very welcome, unlike in the UK, where many were surprised by the British government's decision to revoke his visa. Now, he chooses his words carefully, but remains singularly unimpressed at the circumstances of his departure.

"I think the UK is a mature democratic country, and they should understand that I am the victim of the coup d'etat," he maintains. "I am the victim of dictatorship, even though there was a court verdict.

"But that is like the fruit on the poisoned tree - the whole tree has been poisoned and I am the fruit. The tree was planted by the military coup," he says, adding: "England must understand better but unfortunately they are now busy with their own problems so they forgot about democratic values.

"I don't care, though - I thank them because I went there, I bought a football club then sold it and made some money in the process," he says. "They gave me a place to stay, even though it was short-term. My children went to school there.

One day, they will understand better, and they will feel sorrow for what they have done because they have not respected their own democratic values."

So what next for Shinawatra? Putting his political problems aside, Shinawatra is focused on tackling poverty in Asia. He speaks passionately about the plight of the poor, and details the measures he took during his reign in Thailand - and how they worked. Top of his agenda is healthcare. During his premiership, Shinawatra wasted no time in introducing a new system of blanket healthcare insurance for the equivalent of just 3 dirhams a month.

"At least 18 million poor people can now enjoy full healthcare," he says proudly. "If they are having a baby they pay just 3 dirhams. For heart surgery, 3 dirhams. I re-managed the whole public health budget and allocated set amounts to every hospital.

"We added more equipment and built centres of excellence. Now they can get the same service as anyone else, regardless of how poor they are," he adds.

Does he plan to do the same here? "I think if I can re-manage for the UAE government, I will do exactly the same. I will bring in the same experts who used to work with me. I will not just give treatment but also preventive measures - for example, there is a lot that can be done with nutrition and other advice on healthy living."

Shinawatra insists that he would increase the number of family doctors available, and also establish clinics nearer to housing districts, in order to free up hospital resources and make life easier for the 80 percent of patients who do not actually require hospital treatment.

As well as improving healthcare services in the emirates, Shinawatra is also putting together his own detailed proposals for tackling poverty on a wider scale.

In particular, he wants governments to use their surpluses to create micro-loans for the poor, in the same way that they were pioneered by Nobel Prize winner Muhammad Yunus, in Bangladesh.

Thailand's People Bank, giving the poor small loans at just 2.5 percent, has been a huge success and Shinawatra wants to extend the principle across Asia.

In order to achieve this dream, he has launched a new foundation, named ‘Building a Better Future'.

"What does the capitalist economy mean? It means you need capital to create wealth," he explains. "The poor have no choice but to live in a capitalist economy, but they have no capital. They have no access to it. If you give them that access, it changes everything."

Shinawatra insists that the poverty issue is one that has been "misunderstood" in the past. "Most countries are run by veteran politicians who only have experience of politics," he points out. "What is missing is management. Politics is about power and law - politicians don't understand how to run an organisation.

"As an experienced businessman I think I bring some modern management to the government," he continues. "It proved to work well in Thailand but they didn't let me stay that long. If I had stayed the full eight years I think I could have made a big difference."

With so much on his agenda, it is hard to say what the future holds for Thaksin Shinawatra. He expresses deep gratitude to Abu Dhabi's HH Sheikh Mansour for engineering the takeover of Manchester City, saying he sold a club but gained "a great friend". Above all, though, he is looking to go home. He makes no apologies, and has no regrets, about the past.

"I cannot live in my own country. There were many assassination attempts, and my family has been broken up because we all have to live in different countries. I regret the result, but not what I have done. You see, I love the Thai people."

Constitutional Court may be a temporary resolution

30 November 2008

The pro-government camp has said that the Constitution Court may be used to end the airport closures in a secret deal. This may not be such a big secret and may well be a short term reality.

Veera Musigapong, a host of the pro-government "Today's Truth" programme, has claimed that the PAD was being secretly promised that if Suvarnabhumi and Don Muang airports can reopen, its enemies (the government) will be dealt with another way.

Veera pointed at what he claimed was the suspicious attempt to advancethe party dissolution cases involving three government coalition parties for final verdicts on December 2. He said the PAD was practically being told that if the movement gets protesters out of the airports, the verdicts could be in its favour. The verdicts are likely to be against the government anyway.

On Friday it was reported that the Constitution Court would not conduct any more trial and will issue verdicts on December 2. Ever since speculation has been rife that the ruling People Power Party would be certainly dissolved, and the coalition members, Chat Thai and Machima Thipataya, also appear doomed. 

If the Constitution Court rules to dissolve the parties, executives will be barred from politics for five years, including Prime Minister Somchai. PPP party members have already set up the Puea Thai party as the next rebirth of TRT/PPP.

But the dissolution of the government will not be enough for the PAD - nothing short of massive electoral reform to give them the government they want will be enough.

Latest update from Bangkok

30 November 2008 (Bangkok Post)

"The political situation could become more tense today when government supporters stage a mammoth rally in Bangkok as the anti-government People's Alliance for Democracy protesters continue to hold hostage the city's two airports.

The pro-government Democratic Alliance Against Dictatorship said yesterday that it would hold a massive rally at the Bangkok Metropolitan Administration's Lan Kon Muang ground this afternoon with as many as 100,000 people expected to take part. The rally venue was scheduled for Sanam Luang but changed later.


Police yesterday increased their presence near Suvarnabhumi and Don Mueang airports, which were seized last week by PAD protesters, but made no attempt to disperse them.

Meanwhile the PAD yesterday mobilised more supporters from the provinces to join its rally in Bangkok.

The PAD may also try to seize seaports on the Eastern Seaboard if the takeover of the airports fails to force the premier out of office, Suthi Atchasai, a PAD leader from the East, told protesters at Suvarnabhumi yesterday.

Hundreds of PAD protesters managed to force a group of policemen manning a checkpoint on King Kaew Road, which leads to Suvarnabhumi Airport, to move out of the area. The protesters said the checkpoint was aimed at cutting off their supplies by preventing vehicles with food and drink from entering the protest site.

The pro-government DAAD said yesterday that its planned rally today was necessary as it was highly probable that three coalition parties, including the core People Power Party, would face dissolution when the Constitution Court ruled on the electoral-fraud cases later this week. The DAAD said it would have to deal with the PAD protesters by itself as police appeared to have taken no action against them.

Prime Minister Somchai Wongsa-wat yesterday said he was willing to talk with the PAD leaders but would not resign or dissolve the House of Representatives, as demanded by the protesters. "House dissolution and resignation must not be the conditions. This matter is for the political side to implement in accordance with the Constitution," Somchai said.

He also called on the protesters to end their takeover of the city's two airports, for the sake of the country.

"Takeover of an airport is wrong. It is a severe threat to the country's security. The world community's confidence in Thailand is gone. If the takeover continues, Thailand will become isolated. This incident has caused much damage to the country's image as well as its revenue," said the prime minister.

"[The PAD] says the government is causing damage to the country in order to remain in office. My question is: what has the government done to create that damage? And what about the seizure of airports? Is that not damage to the country?" Somchai said.

Somchai said he would remain in Chiang Mai but did not say where the next Cabinet meeting tomorrow would be held.

PAD co-leader Chamlong Sri-muang said early yesterday he was ready to talk with the prime minister but not in Chiang Mai, where Somchai has been staying for fear of a coup. Chamlong said the PAD leaders would talk to Somchai only in person, not on the phone. The PAD co-leader said he expected the ongoing turmoil to end before His Majesty the King's birthday on December 5.

The prime minister gave a national address last night, calling on citizens to do good deeds in honour of His Majesty the King ahead of his birthday."

EK-EY merger rumours continue

29 November 2008

The Times newspaper - 29 November 2008

"You can be sure that the rumours have reached the boardrooms of airlines from London to Dallas to Chicago and beyond ... and you can be pretty sure what the reaction has been. Horror. Dismay. Alarm.

In an era when Western airlines are struggling, downsizing and preparing to battle for fewer customers in a shrinking economy, the chattering classes in the Gulf are talking up the prospect of a merger between Emirates Airlines and Etihad Airways.

No amount of denials has stopped speculation that has gripped the Gulf over the past month, speculation that the Government of Abu Dhabi, which owns Etihad, will buy a 30 per cent stake in Emirates, which is owned by Dubai, or that there will be a full merger of the carriers.

Doubt over Dubai's ability to meet its debt obligations has led many businessmen in the city-state to become convinced that the Government will have to sell assets such as Emirates to survive.

It is a huge asset. While Western airlines are shrinking, Emirates is on course to become the largest international airline in the world some time during the next decade, having carried 21 million passengers last year. It has $60 billion (£39 billion) of aircraft on order, including 58 of the double-decker Airbus 380s, and will begin A380 services from Dubai to London on Monday.

Etihad is also growing. Set up by Abu Dhabi only five years ago, it is already carrying six million passengers a year and it, too, has an order book that most Western airlines could only dream of.

At the Farnborough Air Show this year James Hogan, the chief executive, placed aircraft orders worth up to $43 billion.

Close rivals in more ways than one - they sit only 75km (45 miles) apart - the airline-building race between Dubai and Abu Dhabi is based on geography. The Gulf sits between Asia, Africa and Europe: it is estimated that 3.5billion people live within an eight-hour flight of Dubai.

Any two leading cities anywhere in the world can be connected via Dubai or Abu Dhabi, which makes the Gulf the perfect transit hub. Passengers flying from Glasgow or Dublin, for example, can fly direct to Dubai or Abu Dhabi and on to Sydney or Tokyo, rather than transiting through both Heathrow and Hong Kong or Bangkok.

By building up their airlines and their airports, the Gulf states believe that they can snap up this traffic. It is an ambitious plan, but if the Gulf carriers succeed, they will place the Middle East at the centre of people and trade movements in the 21st century. So great is their challenge that some European governments, keen to protect their flag-carriers, have blocked Emirates from gaining access to their cities.

“Our strategy is about reducing the length of journey times and making the trip from A to Z as smooth as possible,” Mr Hogan said. “If we can offer more efficient journeys, there will be a shift in traffic to our region.”

With Emirates, Etihad and Qatar all following essentially the same strategy, there are doubts that all three can achieve their goal, which is perhaps why the Emirates-Etihad rumours have seemed so plausible.

Mr Hogan said: “The Gulf carriers do have a similar strategy, but if you ask me who my competition is, I'd say European and Asian carriers who want passengers to go through London or Hong Kong and not the Gulf.”

There is a shadow over this grand plan. With the global economic slowdown taking hold, Emirates said last month that its profits had slumped 88 per cent, while Etihad's ambition to break even by 2010 looks optimistic.

Yet Tim Clark, president of Emirates, is not convinced that the downturn will have the devastating impact on the Gulf's carriers that some predict. “Perhaps I'm getting long in the tooth, but I've seen so many of these crises in the last 35 years that I'm not going to get into knee-jerk reactions,” he said.

“After the first Gulf war, we were the last carrier in the region standing. We've been through it before. Things will get worse, but by summer next year we should be through it.”

Although both Emirates and Etihad are stacked with executives from Britain and Australia, they have developed cultures that resonate with the region they are based in.

At Emirates, Mr Clark presides over a meeting of senior managers two or three times a week. There is no agenda, they simply talk - and argue - like a family sitting down to dinner. In a region where big families dominate politics and business, Emirates' corporate culture seems to reflect its environment.

Mr Hogan has tapped into another important feature of life in the Middle East: hospitality. Offering hospitality to a stranger is ingrained in Arabs and Etihad aspires to make that part of its culture, too. “I don't compare myself to other airlines, I compare us to the top hotels where service and hospitality are essential to success.”

As for rumours of their impending merger, Mr Clark was unequivocal: “What the ownership does with us is up to them, but we have been assured that no asset sale will take place.”

And yet ... the talk persists. European carriers such as British Airways, Air France and Lufthansa know already that Emirates and Etihad pose a significant challenge already. Whether they go on to do so as one huge combined entity may depend on how the credit crunch hits Dubai in the coming months.

-----

The captains' logbooks

Tim Clark

Emirates was founded by a small group of British expatriates in 1985 at the request of Dubai's ruling family. Tim Clark was one of that group, joining as head of airline planning, and he has been in Dubai ever since.

As president of one of the fastest-growing airlines in the world, Mr Clark is possibly the most influential person in the aviation industry.

The purchasing power of Emirates has allowed him to force Airbus and Boeing into designing aircraft that suit his needs rather than those of other carriers.

Mr Clark's magnificent office in the new Emirates headquarters overlooks Dubai's airport and he has been known to call up the air traffic control tower to demand that his aircraft be allowed to take off on time.

Mr Clark began his career with British Caledonian in 1972 and joined Gulf Air in 1975 in Bahrain. He is a fellow of the Royal Aeronautical Society.

James Hogan

The Australian-born James Hogan became chief executive of Etihad two years ago. He had previously been head of Gulf Air during a turbulent period for the Bahrain-based carrier, although Mr Hogan insists that his departure was amicable.

He joined Hertz Australia in 1984 and spent 13 years with the car rental company, which is where he says that he learnt to focus on customer service.

He joined bmi, the former British Midland, in 1997 and then had a brief period with Forte Hotels as worldwide sales director before returning to bmi as chief operating office in 1999.

Mr Hogan's management style could be described as “matey” and his generosity and concern for staff have made him a popular boss. He lives in Abu Dhabi and is a fellow of the Royal Aeronautical Society."

U-tapao chaos

29 November 2008

U-tapao navy airport in Sattahip yesterday was jam-packed with foreign tourists waiting to catch a flight home after Suvarnabhumi and Don Mueang airports were seized by anti-government protesters.

Rear Adm Surapong Ayasanond, deputy director of U-tapao airport, said trying to process so many travellers was causing a headache for officials as the facilities were inadequate.

The airport ramp can handle about ten jets. But there are very limited staff, baggage facilities, airport buses, and immigration facilities.

The crowds at the airport are being marshaled by Pattaya's infamous tourist police. They are a little more brusque that your average Thai policeman!

A number of countries are providing aircraft to get their people home from the airport which is about 160 kilometres southeast of Bangkok. Overnight there were planes from Aerosvit, Korean, Cathay Pacific, Singapore Air, Emirates, Thai AIrways and others. Asiana, EVA and Malaysian are also meant to be sending rescue planes.

The Emirates flight was due to leave at 4am. Passengers were bussed from Bangkok at 11pm. The flight departed at 8am this morning. A very long night for everyone.
 

The airport has only 2 or 3 scheduled flights a day, for Bangkok Airways to Koh Samui, and a few charter flights for Pattaya, mainly from Russia. There are only four check-in counters, two x-ray machines, six counters for customs services, one belt for arriving passengers and one crane to lift luggage into the planes.

Yesterday the airport had over 3,000 people with 12 departures and 16 arrivals, mostly international flights.

Meanwhile around 4,000 protesters continue to occupy Suvarnabhumi for the fourth day in a bid to topple Premier Somchai Wongsawat's government.
 

What happens next?

28 November 2008

The state of emergency has been declared. The Prime Minister says he must do something. But television interviews with police officers nominated to take charge of the state of emergency suggest that they have not received any instructions.

Meanwhile protesters laying siege to Bangkok's two airports are braced for a battle with security forces and People's Alliance of Democracy "security guards" have manned a series of road blocks of razor wire, crash barriers and plastic water bottles on the expressway leading to the capital's $4 billion Suvarnabhumi airport, shut since Tuesday.

The men, armed with sticks and metal bars, check all cars entering the area. There are similar scenes at Bangkok's Don Muang airport, whose closure late on Wednesday severed all air links between the city of 8 million and the outside world.

In a televised address from the government stronghold of Chiang Mai, 700 km (400 miles) north of Bangkok, Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat declared emergency law, saying the export and tourism-driven economy could not tolerate further disruption.

"I need to do something to restore peace and order," he said.

A similar declaration in September to dislodge PAD protesters occupying Government House was ignored by the army and, even though the PAD were preparing to repel a police assault, it was not clear when, or even if, one would materialise.

The PAD have refused to end their sit-ins, which have forced hundreds of flights to be cancelled, stranding thousands of foreign tourists in one of Asia's biggest air hubs and grounding millions of dollars of air cargo.

"We will not leave. We will use human shields against the police if they try to disperse us," PAD leader Suriyasai Katasila told Reuters.

Another PAD figurehead threatened to expand the movement's six-month campaign by bringing Bangkok's traffic network to a halt with flying protests at dozens of motorway intersections.

A government spokesman has even suggested that the siege could drag on for a month.

Rumours continue to swirl round the capital of the army preparing to launch what would be Thailand's 19th coup or attempted coup in 76 years of on-off democracy.

Tension has been rising elsewhere in the country, with a pro-government gang in Chiang Mai dragging a PAD activist from his car and shooting him dead.

There is a real possibility now of waking up in the morning to either a coup or to real and unpleasant violence. Both are depressing.

Emirates update - 2

28 November 2008

Schedule for 29th November

EK384/385 Dubai-Bangkok-Hong Kong-Bangkok-Dubai is cancelled.

EK372/373 Dubai-Bangkok-Dubai is cancelled.

EK418 Dubai-Bangkok-Sydney is operating non-stop to Sydney.

EK419 Sydney-Bangkok-Dubai is operating non-stop to Dubai.

Schedule for 28th November

EK384/385 Dubai-Bangkok-Hong Kong-Bangkok-Dubai is cancelled. Passengers bound for Hong Kong have been rebooked on EK380/381.

EK372/373 Dubai-Bangkok-Dubai is cancelled.

EK418 Dubai-Bangkok-Sydney is operating non-stop to Sydney.

EK419 Sydney-Bangkok-Dubai is operating non-stop to Dubai.

Affected passengers can choose to travel into or out of another airport that Emirates operates in the vicinity of Bangkok, such as Kuala Lumpur, Singapore or Hong Kong. Re-booking or re-issue charges will be waived, and the fare paid to/from Bangkok will be honoured for travel to/from the alternative airports. This re-routing is subject to seat availability and will be permitted until Emirates’ normal operations resume at Suvarnabhumi Airport.

Mumbai attacks are reminder of the terror threat

27 November 2008

The brazen terror attacks late last night in Mumbai are a frightening reminder of how vulnerable we all are every day. The attackers had clear objectives to attack seven high profile locations including three five-star hotels, a station, two hospitals and a popular pub. Many of these were in south Mumbai; the business center of the city and where most foreigners would work or stay.

Reports said a previously unknown group calling itself the Deccan Mujahideen had claimed responsibility for the attacks in emails to several media outlets. There is no way to verify that claim.

India saw 2,700 killed in terrorist attacks last year by a wide range of groups and individuals making it one of the worst hit countries in the world, if clearly its size plays a role in the statistics. But this attack was at the heart of Mumbai; and targeted Indians and foreigners. The death toll is currently 125 with hundreds injured and may fortunate to escape through luck, ingenuity and the response of the authorities.

The attack appears to have been more a mass guerrilla assault on a series of soft-targets than the standard spectacular blasts that we have come to associate with those strikes linked closely to the al-Qaida hardcore. Hostage taking is also not a usual feature of core al-Qaida attacks.

Putting together this jumble of tactics and the targeting of an Orthodox Jewish centre and the apparent singling out of UK and US and Israeli citizens may indicate a homegrown local Indian outfit; or at a minimum significant domestic assistance. The homegrown explanation fits, insofar as anything based on an unknown name of an unknown group, with the claim of responsibility from the Deccan Mujahideen who appear likely to be close to the fragmented but effective Indian Mujahideen movement.

This attack looks was dangerous and well planned, and although not directed against possible government targets it clearly sort out economic ones and of course the areas of western influence.
 

BKK airport closed until at least Saturday night

27 November 2008

Thailand's main Suvarnabhumi international airport will remain closed until at least 6 p.m. (1100 GMT) on Saturday because of a siege by anti-government protesters, Thai Airways said on Thursday.

The airline, passing on an announcement from Airports of Thailand AOT.BK, said the capital's old Don Muang airport would be closed until 6 p.m. on Friday.

The statement did not say why these times had been chosen.

The government declared a state of emergency at the two sites on Thursday, giving the army and police special powers to clear the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) protesters, who overran the $4 billion Suvarnabhumi site on Tuesday.

However, when a state of emergency was declared at another PAD protest site in September, the army failed to heed the order and did nothing.

It is unclear whether there will be any action to clear the airport tonight.

From airport to protest camp

27 November 2008 - AFP

With baggage trolleys converted into noodle stalls and check-in desks used as beds, all the signs at Bangkok's international airport are that protesters are in for the long haul.

Enterprising vendors have even moved in to sell the plastic hand-shaped clappers that have become the bizarre signature of Thailand's anti-government movement, which stormed Suvarnabhumi Airport on Tuesday night.

Built to wow the world and opened to much fanfare in September 2006, the new terminal is now overflowing with demonstrators who have taken a liking to the high-tech facilities.

'It is very convenient - we have clean toilets,' said 46-year-old businesswoman Chaleepun Parama.

Cleaning staff came in on Thursday to make sure that every aspect of the three-billion-dollar glass-and-steel structure, the third largest airport building in the world, is kept fresh.

Pranee Lampen, 52, said she was very pleased with the sleeping arrangements, which she preferred to another protest camp at the prime minister's occupied Government House offices.

'We don't have to build a place to sleep, we just use a mat and we can sleep,' she told AFP. 'My only complaint is that the air conditioning is too cold during the night.'

Thousands of supporters of the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) marched on the key Southeast Asian transport hub on Tuesday and forced its closure as they upped their campaign to topple the democratically elected government.

They mostly rallied outside, but as airport authorities began evacuating about 3,000 stranded tourists on Wednesday, the supporters - draped in yellow to show allegiance to the monarchy - started trickling in.

After spending the night sleeping on floor mats, chairs and by check-in desks, they had by Thursday morning dug in.

'We have fought for six months. We have almost reached our goal. We will stay here,' said Chaleepun, who had accessorised her grey shirt with yellow arm bands.

PAD protesters also shut down Bangkok's smaller Don Mueang airport on Thursday, despite calls by the powerful army chief Anupong Paojinda that they disperse.

Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat also refused Anupong's request on Wednesday that he dissolve the house and call new elections to solve the turmoil.

'If he (Somchai) stays, we stay,' said Chaleepun.

Demonstrators made sure that every need was catered for.

Pichsine Kitpakornsanti, who quit her job as a teacher to join the PAD protests, converted five baggage trolleys into food stores, giving out energy drinks, coffee and snacks.

'Those who are hungry, come my way!' she cried as protesters huddled around her wares. 'This is all for free - your payment is one smile.'

A delivery of 500 burgers were also on their way, she said.

Outside the cavernous departures hall, vendors sold headbands in the colours of the national flag and the clappers that have become a favourite of PAD loyalists.

They were put to vigorous use as protest coordinator Chaiwat Sinsuwong took to a makeshift stage and urged more supporters to join them at the airport - although they almost drowned him out.

The departures board was covered with banners calling Mr Somchai a 'tyrant', while others were more conciliatory, telling tourists 'If we have caused you any inconvenience, we sincerely apologise.'

A trickle of holidaymakers continued to show up. 'We just woke up today and we came to the airport. We were surprised that there were many people here,' said Mariuse Wisuiewski from Poland. 'We just learnt now that the airport is closed and there are no flights,' he said, before being herded away by an airport official.
 

Bangkok's Bizarre Power Struggle
Newsweek - 27 November 2008
By Jamie Seaton and George Wehrfritz

"Many Thais believe that a 100-year-old bronze likeness of King Rama V located in downtown Bangkok emits powerful magic. That is why, fully a century after it was cast in Paris, the likeness has become the object of struggle between top government leaders and a band of rightists seeking to oust them. A few weeks ago, anti-government agitator Sondhi Limthongkul, whose People’s Alliance for Democracy has occupied key official buildings for four months in an effort to topple a government he considers illegitimate, accused his opponents of employing wizardry to channel the statue’s protective forces their way. And to reverse that alleged sorcery, he deployed his own mystics to encircle the statue with used sanitary napkins (collected from the PAD’s rank-and-file) to form a shield of menstrual blood.

It’s no secret that Thailand’s democracy is embattled. But what’s less well known is the extent to which its rival camps have fallen back on astrology and mysticism as they seek to best their political foes. After deposed Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra returned from exile temporarily this year, for example, he toured 99 Buddhist temples in what was interpreted as an effort to garner merit for an anticipated political comeback. A month later, unidentified vandals smashed numerous statues at Phanom Rung, one of the shrines he visited, purportedly to nullify Thaksin’s powers. Sondhi frequently denounces one of Thaksin’s allies as a “Khmer wizard” and was caught on video recently clad in priestly white robes as he sprinkled holy water at a government complex occupied by PAD demonstrators and called on Thais to resist “evil magic.” Bangkok-based political scientist Chris Baker says supernaturalism ebbs and flows in Thailand, but “at times of crisis these things bubble to the surface.”

They did so dramatically this week when the PAD, mounting what it called its “final offensive” to oust a democratically elected government led by Thaksin’s brother-in-law from power, seized Bangkok’s international airport in an effort to thwart Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat’s return from the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Peru. Thousands of club-wielding thugs stormed the terminal and blocked traffic on the main airport expressway, stranding thousands of tourists, businessmen and triggering flight cancellations across Asia. “We sympathize with the passengers but this is a necessary move to save the nation,” PAD leader Sondhi said.

The PAD hopes its violent street actions will muster enough power to oust political opponents it can’t beat at the ballot box. Comprised mainly of conservative militarists, Bangkok’s old elite and royalists who see Thailand’s democracy as a threat to its monarchy, the anti-government coalition lost the last election but now seeks to reverse that result by claiming that the victorious People Power Party stole the contest – a claim for which there is scant supporting evidence. What really irks them is that the PPP is unabashedly pro-Thaksin and draws on his immense popularity in rural Thailand to dominate national polls. Their fear is that the party – should it ever fully consolidate power – would quickly return Thaksin to office despite his recent conviction on corruption charges stemming from his 2000-2006 rule.

The PAD’s methods are extreme. They’ve turned occupied government buildings into tent camps guarded by golf club-wielding thugs. They’ve closed several airports – Bangkok International is merely the latest – and urged state-owned airlines, power and transport companies to stage general strikes. Sondhi, a media tycoon-turned political raconteur, claims his movement is solely aimed at defending Thailand’s monarchy against a secret anti-royalist plot by Thaksin and his allies (who deny the claims and profess loyalty to the throne). The PAD advocates a limited form of democracy that, in essence, would disenfranchise rural voters who Sondhi has claimed “lack intelligence and wisdom.” His supporters believe their campaign has a supernatural subtext. Sondhi “uses [mystical] ceremonies to protect people,” says one female PAD supporter who is college-educated and works in an architectural firm in Bangkok. “I believe the spirits can help us sixty percent of the way, but that we must do the rest ourselves.”

Foreign observers agree that Thailand’s political landscape is unstable. As one Western diplomat in Bangkok puts it: “The PAD obviously has effective control of the airport and this is an issue of concern. But is this a general breakdown of law and order? Not yet.” On Wednesday Thailand’s army commander said Prime Minister Somchai should step down and call new elections. The prime minister – who returned from the APEC confab via a military airport late on Wednesday – quickly refused. Robert Broadfoot, managing director of the political risk consultancy PERC, warns that today’s crisis has the potential to “upset the [political] balance in the country,” and that the damage to Thailand’s democracy could take “years to repair.”

Few dispute the claim that Thailand is moving in reverse. Its economy, which grew robustly during Thaksin’s rule, thanks to rural reforms including village-level business loans and free medical care, is back in the dumps. Its multi-billion-dollar tourism industry has been dealt a staggering blow just as it enters the all-important winter holiday season. And the return of supernaturalism in politics, one could argue, marks a sardonic retreat from modernity. Thais revere King Rama V as a great modernizer who abolished slavery, forged diplomatic ties with Western powers and prevented the kingdom’s colonization during his 42 years on the throne. Yet with little apparent irony, today’s leaders seek to channel the powers of a legendary monarch who embraced new ideas using sorcery, holy water and menstrual blood."

Emirates Bangkok update

26 November 2008

From the Emirates website:

Emirates flights have been affected due to the closure of Suvarnabhumi Airport in Bangkok.

Yesterday, 25th November 2008
Emirates flight EK385 Hong Kong-Bangkok-Dubai returned to Hong Kong and EK419 Sydney-Bangkok-Dubai was diverted to Kuala Lumpur. Both flights are now returning non-stop to Dubai and are expected to land in the evening.

Today, 26th November
Emirates flight EK419 from Sydney to Dubai via Bangkok will instead fly directly to Dubai with a technical stop in Singapore.

Emirates flight EK384/385 Dubai-Bangkok-Hong Kong is cancelled.

Emirates flight EK418 Dubai-Bangkok-Sydney will overfly Bangkok. The return flight is planned to operate via Singapore.

Tomorrow, 27th November
Emirates flight EK384/385 Dubai-Bangkok-Hong Kong is cancelled.

Emirates flight EK418 Dubai-Bangkok-Sydney will overfly Bangkok. The return flight is planned to operate via Singapore.

Emirates flight EK372/373 Dubai-Bangkok-Dubai is cancelled.

Customers are advised to call their local Emirates office or return to emirates.com for further updates.

Emirates Airport Services is ensuring that passengers are well looked after. All passengers bound for Bangkok will be rebooked on the first available flight when the airport re-opens.

Future flights will be held until we receive confirmation that the situation has improved and is stable. The safety of our passengers and crew is of utmost importance.

Emirates regrets the inconvenience caused

One Two Die is back on 5 December

26 November 2008

Thailand's aviation credibility should be further damaged by the return of One-Two-Go Airlines which is preparing to resume flights on December 5, after being grounded since July 22 for safety and operational deficiencies.

Executives of the privately owned budget carrier, which suffered one of Thailand's worst air crashes in Phuket, yesterday confirmed the re-launch and have begun accepting reservations.

The airline has apparently passed a series of rigorous audits by the Department of Civil Aviation (DCA) of various aspects including safety, quality assurance systems and organisational structure. There is no transparency to this process and no evidence available to suggest that these audits were both thorough and of international standards.

The suspension coincided with a wave of litigation in US courts against the airline by relatives of victims of the Sept 16, 2007 Phuket crash. An MD-82 jetliner operated by the carrier crashed in strong winds and heavy rain after attempting to land at Phuket International Airport, leaving 89 dead and 41 injured.

One Two Go will initially offer seven daily flights between Bangkok and five major domestic cities;  Chiang Mai, Chiang Rai, Phuket, Hat Yai and Nakhon Si Thammarat. The flights will be operated by MD-80 series jetliners with 172 seats.

The airline's web site has been re-launched with the tagline in English of "Do it by heart" and with a nauseating message from the Chairman.

Meanwhile there are 6,300 online signatures to a website - http://www.investigateudom.com/timeline.php - as families continue action against the airline and its owner.  Lawyers for the British and US families of the 90 victims are seeking Bt8.32 billion in compensation in US courts.

The Thai Civil Aviation Authority (DCA) has neither completed its investigation of the Phuket crash or released its findings from public review.

The best way to send a message to the owners of One-Two-Go and to the DCA is simply to avoid flying on this airline.
 

PAD takes over the airport

26 November 2008

The PAD has completely taken control of Suvarnabhumi Airport so any airline that wants to take off or land must seek permission from us directly,'' said Chaiwat Sinswuwong, one of the leaders of the People's Alliance for Democracy.

Truly bizarre. Who does the airline call? And the phone number ?

A spokesman of the People's Alliance for Democracy also announced today that the protesters would occupy and shut down the Suvanarbhumi International Airport until Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat resigns. This could be a very long occupation until force is used to remove the protestors.

An airport official said the Flight IR809 of the Iran Airlines  would leave the Suvarnabhumi International Airport at 11:10 am Wednesday to fly 416 Thai Muslims to Teheran. Earlier the day, a PAD leader announced at the rally site at the airport that the flight would take off at 9:20 am to fly the pilgrims to Teheran before flying to Saudi Arabia

Why was the airport unprotected?

26 November 2008

It can hardly have been a surprise when the PAD mob occupied Bangkok's new international airport. Thousands of PAD protestors in yellow shirts, and many carrying weapons had to be bussed to the main access road to the airport and then march towards the terminal building down the two kilometre highway into the airport.

It is only two months ago the the PAD occupied runways at Phuket and Hat Yai forcing those airports to close.

But yesterday the police were outnumbered and offered the traveling public and airport staff no protection.

It is hard to imagine any other major international airport that could be shut down by a mob of protestors or allowed to be shut down.

The reality of the situation is that many people will have been intimidated, scared and many more badly let down by the inept responses of the airport and the authorities.

Passengers trying to access the terminal last night had to drag their bags through a gauntlet of screaming, clapper waving, PAD supporters. There are reports this morning of three explosions at the airport. The situation is out of control. The public deserved protection and security. They got none.

Overnight thousands of passengers slept at the airport, many complaining airport and airline staff had disappeared when the PAD demonstrators, dressed in their movement's yellow shirts, invaded the airport late on Tuesday.

Many passengers had checked in for their flights and were at the departure gates when their flights were cancelled. Having cleared immigration they are now marooned in an airport that the authorities have lost control of. The mob have now accessed secure parts of the airport and taken control.

Suvarnabhumi is one of Asia's busiest airports and gateway for nearly 15 million visitors to Thailand each year. But police did nothing to prevent the occupation by the protesters eye witnesses say that barely any officers are visible early on Wednesday.

Passengers say they have no information on what is happening. Television screens have been turned off. Air conditioning turned off in parts of the airport and the mob roam wherever they wish at the airport.

Airlines such as Emirates are badly affected. Emirates has ten arrivals and departures a day at Bangkok bringing over 4,000 passengers a day. Two flights were diverted last night. 385 returned to Hong Kong and is still there; 419 diverted to Kuala Lumpur and continued to Dubai from there. Bangkok bound passengers will be taken from Kuala Lumpur by other flights when the airport opens.

The 385 crew will be inconvenienced. The flight is operated as a turnaround from BKK to Hong Kong and back to BKK. The crew have cabin bags only. All their clothes and personal effects are in Bangkok; the crew are now stuck in Hong Kong until order is restored. There will be many such stories.

So how did this happen; why was the airport not protected. Why were the mob allowed to take over the airport and access secure areas. How much damage has been done at the airport?

The government looks incapable of any action. The military don't know which side of the fence to fall on. In trying to avoid confrontation the authorities may have positioned themselves for a much more serious battle.

This morning the PAD is saying that it will occupy the airport until Somchai and his government resigns. He will not resign. A state of emergency is more likely.

Villain or Victim?

26 November 2008

Former Thai prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra has claimed he is the "victim of dictatorship" - as violent anti-government riots broke out on the streets of Bangkok.

"I am the victim of dictatorship, even though there was a court verdict. But that is like the fruit on the poisoned tree - the whole tree has been poisoned and I am the fruit. The tree was planted by the military coup," Shinawatra said in an exclusive interview in Dubai with Arabian Business to be published on Sunday.

Shinawatra, who faces a two-year jail term for fraud if he returns to Thailand, insisted he would eventually return to "save the poor".

He had been living in the UK since 2006 but flew to Dubai from Hong Kong on Nov. 16 after the British government revoked his visa.

"I have to go back for my people and my supporters, most of whom are poor or middle class. In the past the poor didn't see the future - they only saw the bitter past and short present.

"After I became prime minister I gave them hope, I brought them freshness. They saw a future for their children to go to school and for their crops.

"They were happy - even taxi drivers were happy - and I brought the economy back to normal."

The full, exclusive interview with Shinawatra will be published in Arabian Business on Sunday Nov. 30, and from midnight on Sunday Nov. 30 online at ArabianBusiness.com.

Thailand sinks into hopeless anarchy

25 November 2008

The PAD took their biggest gamble today as their mob marched in Bangkok's international airport and forced their way into the terminal building leading to a complete shutdown of the airport at about 9pm.

The day started with violence in the northern part of the capital on the main Vibhavadee Rangsit Road, when supporters of the pro-government United Front of Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD) threw stones at a truck carrying PAD members heading from the temporary parliament building at the old Don Muang airport.

From their truck, the PAD members then fired slingshots and at least two pistols at the UDD members. The PAD truck apparently turned to pursue the several dozen UDD supporters, firing at them. Two of the fleeing UDD members were shot in the incident.

The PAD truck was apparently on the way to join PAD protesters who gathered in front of the Armed Forces headquarters on Chaeng Wattana Road on Tuesday They aim to prevent a cabinet meeting rumoured to be scheduled for the building on Wednesday.

The entrance and exit gates of the command headquarters were closed.

Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat is on his way back from the Apec summit in Peru. He will have to find new office space again; the PAD have seized his offices in both Government House and at Don Muang. The government is basically being stopped from holding any sort of physical meeting.

There is no sign that the government will resign. It may be non-functional but there is no sign (yet) that the protests will force it to step down as the PAD has called for.

PAD protesters also clashed this evening with a group of pro-government taxi drivers on Vibhavadi Road, which left at least 11 injured. Two of the taxi drivers suffered gunshot wounds.

According to the police, the PAD demonstrators attempted to break into the Khon Rak Taxi (Taxi Lovers) radio station on Vibhavadi Road, Soi 3, but a group of taxi drivers prevented them. As a result, both sides exchanged blows and threw things at each other until more than 60 policemen arrived to settle the situation.

The radio station is known for supporting the coalition government led by the People Power party (PPP).

Meanwhile at Suvarnabhumi airport, groups of taxi drivers and supporters of the PAD armed with weapons, including slingshots, fought each other before the police broke up the violence.

PAD's big push on Tuesday evening was to take over the Suvarnabhumi Bangkok international airport. The timing was probably triggered by Prime Minister Somchai's scheduled return from Lima but is also part of the PAD's final push to topple the government.

Protesters, many masked, and many armed with wooden and metal rods, were allowed to break through police lines and flowed into the busy terminal. Meanwhile cars and trucks to block the only highway with access to the airport. The access roads were clogged with thousands of protestors marching to the airport.

Acting Airports of Thailand (AoT) president and Acting Suvarnabhumi Airport Director Serirat Prasutanont announced shortly after 9pm that the airport was cancelling all departing flights. Flights are currently cancelled until 7am. Assuming the protestors are still at the airport the cancellations will continue long into tomorrow and the rest of the week.

Some incoming flights are still arriving, but when passengers and crew disembark there is no way currently to leave the airport safely. Emirates Airline wisely returned one flight to Hong Kong and diverted another to Kuala Lumpur.

Thai Airways reported that more than 21 flights, to Japan, India, Iran, Europe, among others, were cancelled Tuesday night. This affected up to 6,000 travellers. Overall, up to 10,000 travellers could be affected Tuesday night alone, according to airline sources. Many passengers are stranded in the airport unable to either leave for their destination or return to home or hotels.

Thai Airways have no mention of delays or cancellations or of airport violence on their web site. Pathetic really. The AOT and Bangkok Airport sites are equally useless.

AOT also has provided a hotline number for inquiries: 02-1321882 and 02-1321888. However, an AOT official said the lines soon became jammed.

For Thai flight information, the following number 02-3561111 has been provided. Expect the number to be permanently engaged and then you wont be disappointed.

British Airways web site reports that BA009 British Airways service from London Heathrow to Bangkok and Sydney on 25 November 2008 has been cancelled.

The BA010 from Sydney via Bangkok to London Heathrow on 25 November is now operating from Sydney via Singapore to London Heathrow

The BA010 from Sydney to Bangkok and London Heathrow on 27 November 2008 has been cancelled.

With the closure of the main access to the airport closed some passengers had to walk with their luggage for up to two kilometres and through the threatening hordes to reach the terminal.

The increasingly power crazed PAD leader Sondhi Limthongkul announced at the anti-government stage at Government House that Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat must resign without any condition to pay for its guilt in the Oct 7 violence which killed a demonstrator and injured many at the occupied Government House.

How we got to this point probably does not matter. What does matter is that anyone watching the scenes from BKK today will see anarchy. Mobs are shooting at each other and throwing grenades while the Police stand-by and watch. Thailand's image and economy are at stake. 

The government cannot afford to let this situation continue if only to show that it is not impotent. But a violent solution gives the PAD exactly what they want. It is very hard to tell what will happen next.

"The birth of an Icon?"

21 November 2008

Hardly an icon - just a rather extravagant hotel surrounded by a building site! But the lavish late night party was heralded as the birth of an icon! The fireworks did not start until about 00.40am after dinner, see below, and the Kylie gig.

We thought we would watch the fireworks from the poolside balcony at the top of Falcon Tower.

But the access doors had been locked. Our security desk told me that they were under instructions from the Dubai Municipality that all rooftop building access had to be locked. There was no explanation. Just an instruction. Bizarre. So the only way to see the fireworks was through an apartment window or by joining all the other traffic down at Beach Road.

Dinner:

Prepared by chefs Nobu Matsuhisa, Giorgio Locatelli, Michel Rostang and Santi Santamaria

Aperitif - 5,000 bottles of Veuve Clicquot and cocktails

Hors d'oeuvre - 4,000 oysters, 5,000 pieces of sushi and 300kg of smoked salmon

Entrée - Black cod; 1.7 tonnes of lobster; Baba ghanoush, tabouleh, saffron marinated chicken, lamb kofta and other Middle Eastern cuisine; Caesar salad

Dessert - "A fantasy of desserts": crême brulée, pastries, fresh fruit and ice cream; Catalan and French cheeses

Wine - Shiraz and chardonnay Tahbilk 2006 from Victoria, Australia

Crisis takes hold in Dubai

21 November 2008

How quickly sentiment changes. Dubai shifted into crisis mode this week as its breakneck building boom stalled, its lending bonanza evaporated and the government pondered wider steps to rescue banks.

Has the Dubai boom ended or stalled?

Dubai's growth was based on a property market which became a full-scale frenzy in which speculation went largely unchecked until it was very late.

Dubai's response has been to call in advisors and to set up a committee of business and government leaders charged with steering the emirate through the crisis and perhaps throwing its high-debt business model out the window.

Big developers have started firing staff and paring projects, banks like Emirates NBD ENBD.DU have blocked consumer credit to employees of companies at risk, and at least one major mortgage company (Amlak) has stopped lending altogether.

Investors fear that individuals and corporations alike will have trouble paying back Dubai's non-bank foreign currency debt estimated at just under $70 billion, according to estimates by ratings agency Fitch.

Shares in the region have lost around $1 trillion since the beginning of the year as investors fled. The UAE finance ministry said last month it would inject 70 billion dirhams ($19 billion) into the banking system, and is already looking at doing more to keep interbank liquidity flowing.

Many had hoped that the six countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) would escape the crisis due to their massive current account surpluses from energy exports. But Dubai is the most vulnerable, as it has little oil.

Dubai Inc., the name applied to the emirate because it is run more as a business than a state, now faces a major overhaul. The emirates made its name by housing banks, retail, media, shipping and logistics enterprises and by billing itself as a safe haven in a volatile region for investors. But its breakneck growth was funded by debt not from oil revenues.

There will be mergers of banks and property firms and an even more rapid slow down in new developments. Will this leave the empty shells of part contrsucted buildings that were evidence of the 1997 Asian crisis.

Dubai will pull through; but it will need help from Abu Dhabi and that may change the perceived balance of influence in the UAE.

The result, in the end, may be the sustainable growth model that Dubai has sought all along.

Crisis what crisis

20 November 2008

It wont look too much like crisis time in Dubai tonight as the Atlantis hotel (perhaps the gaudiest building to open anywhere on our planet) has its formal opening with a party of the local and global rich, famous and notorious.

Tonight's party has been variously costed from US$20 million (local reports) to gbp23 million (Sky News).

After the dinner party, and a private Kylie Minogue concert, there will be a lavish firework show. The firework display, which will begin at about midnight, was planned by Grucci, an American firm that has promised to light up 43km of the palm-shaped shoreline. Avoid all roads around the waterfront tonight. Dubai Police are anticipating heavy traffic along Jumeirah Beach Road.

At the Atlantis, Kylie Minogue will be performing her debut concert in the Middle East to 2,000 guests including Lindsay Lohan, the US actress, Robert De Niro, the Hollywood actor, as well as talk show host Oprah Winfrey, the Hollywood actors Denzel Washington and Gerard Butler, the model Petra Nemcova, the British singer Lily Allen, the Lebanese singer Nawal Zoghbi, the Bollywood actress Priyanka Chopra, the American singer Janet Jackson and Michael Jordan, the basketball player.

Additional guests include Wesley Snipes, Ben Affleck, Shirley Bassey, Quincy Jones and Richard Branson. And others than are apparently not being names for "sensitive" reasons.

Elaborately boxed invitations were sent to celebrities by Sol Kerzner, chairman of Kerzner International, and Sultan Ahmed bin Sulayem, executive chairman of Nakheel, the developers and operators of the Atlantis.

The guest list of 2,000 people will also include business leaders, politicians, actors and musicians and members of the Dubai Royal Family.

My invitation appears to have been lost on the post.

GM should not be bailed out

20 November 2008

The US car industry is in trouble.

They are in so much trouble that the CEO's of the three US carmakers (GM, Ford and Chrysler) had to fly into Washington to plead for a US$25 million bail out. But in keeping with the austerity needed in all three companies, all three executives flew into Washington on their private jets. Really! Back of the plane on JetBlue would have sent a better message to the US taxpayer.

Few companies more deserve failure that General Motors which continues to overproduce cars that few people want to buy, propping up demand with financial incentives that result in consistent losses.

The company is weighed down by massive overhead and crippled by unsustainable labor contracts. General Motors was the first company in the world to make $1 billion in a year (1955) and is now losing nearly $1 billion a month.  GM should declare bankruptcy. With its creditors in charge, GM could restructure, sell off assets and perhaps emerge on the other side a leaner, more competitive company. A government bailout, in this view, would only reward mediocrity and delay the inevitable.

But bankruptcy for GM presents unique challenges. Most Americans would probably buy a microwave oven from a company in bankruptcy. But would they buy a car and warranty from such a company? One of the primary considerations in purchasing an automobile is service and support during future years. In reality the bankruptcy of GM would probably mean the end of GM.

It is unlikely that any resolution will be reached under the Bush administration.  So it will fall to Obama's new government. If he props up the auto unions that helped elect him and protects a failing industry then he will start his presidency on a note of weakness. If he insists on a serious restructuring that creates sustainable companies there will be large pay and benefit cuts, and massive downsizing. Maybe only one US car maker can survive. Ford is the strongest. 

The argument against subsidizing money-losing companies to preserve employment is that it would be impossible to think up a more expensive way of helping people.

But maybe rather than a bail out money can be spent on unemployment compensation that can be expanded to ensure those losing their jobs will not lose their houses or their health insurance. Helping people on that scale will not be cheap, but helping them by propping up corporate losers is infinitely more costly: sooner or later people will find other employment, but the US automobile companies will never turn a collective profit.

The George Bush legacy;  GM goes bankrupt and dies; the credit collapse; the real estate collapse; the stock market collapse; wars without end in Iraq and Afghanistan.

The new government has a mountain to climb.

Thaksin's turn to start a foundation?

18 November 2008

Thailand's homeless ex-Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra has launched a foundation that aims to nurture Asia's future leaders.

There appears to be inspiration from Bill Clinton's successful foundation; and indeed the new web site refers to Thaksin as the Clinton of Asia.

The Building a Better Future Foundation opened offices Monday in Hong Kong and Dubai, said Pongthep Thepkanjana, a Bangkok-based spokesman.

Thaksin was in Dubai and planned to travel elsewhere next week, said Pongthep. He declined to say where.

In an open letter on the foundation's Web site, Thaksin said he wants to recruit Asia's "rising stars" to tackle the economic crisis in the region and confront other pressing issues faced by developing nations.

"Together we can uncover potential and help address the financial, economic and social challenges of developing nations," Thaksin said in his letter titled "Finding an opportunity in crisis."

The foundation's objective is to address the financial, economic and social development of Asia's developing nations; but it is seen as Thaksin's attempt to win back his international image tarnished by the UK government's denial of his visa and a 2 year prison conviction back in Thailand.

Britain revoked Thaksin's visa earlier this month, preventing him from returning to London where he had been living in self-imposed exile. British authorities acted after a Thai court in October convicted Thaksin of conflict of interest in a 2003 land deal and sentenced him to two years in prison.

Thaksin decided Tuesday not to appeal the conviction and would reveal the reason to supporters later, defense attorney Khamnuan Chalopratam told reporters.

Over the weekend, Thaksin and his wife, Pojaman, announced their divorce in Hong Kong after a 32-year marriage, prompting speculation that the move was aimed at protecting the family's considerable assets, which are held mostly in Pojaman's name.

The foundation's Web site gives no addresses or phone numbers for its offices in Hong Kong and Dubai but provides an e-mail address for interested applicants. It says the foundation will "underwrite the activities of a carefully selected think tank of promising Asians" but does not specify where its funding will come from.

Link:

Building a Better Future Foundation: http://www.buildingbetterfuture.org

The Misalignment Of Dubai, Abu Dhabi

18 November 20008 - Oxford Analytica

"UAE cities will feel the global financial crisis in very different ways.

In past years, there has been a significant misalignment of the economic development strategies of Dubai and Abu Dhabi, largely due to the differences in the endowments of the two centers but also affected by differences in attitude, especially in terms of risk taking. This means that the global crisis impacts Dubai and Abu Dhabi in very different ways.

Asymmetric vulnerability. Abu Dhabi is well placed to ride out the crisis:

Oil and gas revenues are enormous, providing 80% of government revenues and 90% of total exports in 2008; the energy sector accounts for around 60% of gross domestic product.

Oil reserves are sufficient to sustain the current rate of production for at least four decades.

The emirate has accumulated enormous sums from past oil revenues, approaching a trillion dollars, with the largest slice going to the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority.

The accumulated wealth dwarfs debts and is such as to provide a comfortable cushion even in the event of a complete collapse in oil prices.

Dubai, on the other hand, is highly vulnerable:

Tourism, retail and real estate, which all show signs of being strongly affected by the present world downturn, together contribute around 30% of GDP.

Financial services, hit heavily by the global crisis, contribute around 10% of GDP.

The energy sector contributes only around 6% of GDP.

Wholesale, transport and storage, which are also likely to be negatively affected, also contribute heavily to the economy.

The emirate's debt is estimated at roughly 100% of GDP.

Common approach. Despite Dubai's precarious position, financing should not be a problem as long as competition with Abu Dhabi gives way to cooperation. This will reveal that the two centers are, in reality, on the way to becoming one. Increased harmonization between Dubai and Abu Dhabi is likely to bring advantages that render obsolete the two-lane approach of past decades:

Matched objectives. The combination of Abu Dhabi's very large accumulated wealth and Dubai's sophisticated, diversified sectors make the pair ideally matched. A move by Abu Dhabi to prop up the Dubai model would also serve its own long-term ambitions to diversify its economy away from reliance on oil revenues.

Resilience. Centers that weather the current crisis will see their reputations gain. Nothing builds confidence more than a history of stability amid the storm. One of the chief impediments to further development in the financial sector has been the perception of unreliability by non-Gulf investors. While asset managers from the GCC, for instance, would have seen no problem with investing within London or New York frameworks, the same was not true vice versa; this will likely change as the old stalwarts show their vulnerabilities and the power of hard currency reasserts itself.

The global crisis presents an opportunity for Abu Dhabi and Dubai to cooperate, weathering the storm and emerging as more closely intertwined, resilient players. However, the more severe the crisis and the larger the rescue needed, the more dominant Abu Dhabi is likely to become."
 

Macau's boom may be bust

17 November 2008

Macau has become the latest victim of the credit crunch. Work was halted last week was on sections five and six of a huge casino development for which the Las Vegas Sands Corporation run by Sheldon Adelson, the casino billionaire, had borrowed heavily.

Funding problems mean the future of the complex is in the balance. Sands, fast running out of cash and unable to find more in the usual credit markets, has said that it will cut as many as 11,000 construction jobs as it halts work on parts of its planned $12 billion development in the former Portuguese territory.

Many other building sites are at a standstill.

Many investors bought into a vision of Macau as the far east gambling resort mecca.  Income from gaming grew nearly 30 per cent in the past year, but did so while Macau enjoyed a golden era of liberal travel rules, roaring economic growth and soaring wage packages. The golden era has ended and confidence is slipping.

Edmond Ho, the chief executive of Macau, used his annual address last week to declare that the Government would take over any bankrupt casino. Analysts in Hong Kong said the comments suggest that the authorities have come to view the casinos like Wall Street banks, as edifices on the brink of implosion.

The real money in Macau is moving around behind the closed doors of the VIP rooms, whose occupants represent 80 per cent of Macau's gaming income. Macau's future turns on what is happening at its invisible tables.

Many believe that after its astonishing growth over the past four years, Macau will now behave as a straight proxy for mainland Chinese consumer sentiment. The chief threat in the current conditions, say analysts, arises because Macau's development tracked the general market excitement about Chinese economic growth.

American and domestic investors and casino operators loved the numbers.  100 million Chinese live within a three-hour drive of Macau. Steve Wynn's Macau casino and hotel makes about five times the quarterly operating income of his Las Vegas flagship, but with less than a quarter of the hotel rooms.

In one corner of that property is a branch of Louis Vuitton which, until last month, raked in more money than any of the brand's concessions anywhere else in the world.

But with global recession hitting China there are factory closures at the rate of 20 per day. Tens of thousands of workers are being laid off, and even if they were never Macau's target audience, the VIP gaming tables will soon be losing the custom of the factories' senior management.

On top of this, travelling restrictions imposed by Beijing in the autumn are about to hit the high-roller market hard: mainland visitors will be limited to just six visits per year.

Another number. 1.4. That is the number of nights, on average, spent by visitors to Macau. The tens of billions invested in Macau, especially by the likes of Mr Adelson and the other Las Vegas operators who arrived when the monopoly of Stanley Ho, the local gambling kingpin, was broken in 2002, assume that the critical number of nights stayed will reach 3.5.

Luring Chinese men to the gambling tables is no great challenge, even in a downturn. But persuading them to bring the family and stay for a week is necessary to sustain Macau's investment.

Is it time for the UAE airline merger?

17 November 2008

One of the lessons of previous recessions is that they create an environment to accelerate cost saving plans and mergers.

At the moment there is a lot of talk that Emirates airline may be merged with Abu Dhabi based Etihad under Abu Dhabi ownership and that this may be in part exchange for Abu Dhabi helping out in Dubai's financial crisis.

Abu Dhabi of course is oil rich (Dubai is not).

As a merger it probably makes sense. It certainly makes more sense than having two major international airlines serving the UAE and based within 100 miles of eachother. The new Jebel Ali airport could effectively be the UAE's hub being well on the road from Dubai to the capital.

Etihad is the newer and smaller airline, some six years old but was established with a charter to be bigger than Emirates and quickly. This was the Abu Dhabi response after Dubai rejected a proposed 51% purchase of Emirates from Abu Dhabi some years ago.

A single airline serving both cities and operating from a yet to be built terminal at the new airport at Jebel Ali is the most sensible long term option for both cities and for the UAE. This will be a huge step for rulers on both emirates but it is inevitable. And the financial crisis focuses the mind of the cost saving and consolidation required.

It would not be an easy transition.  But a strong national carrier would be created with the means to weather any economic downturn, to outgrow and outperform the other GCC airlines and to be a world leading carrier.

In terms of branding the airline would probably keep the Emirates name. The authorities should end discussion of terminal 4 at DXB and the planned expansion of Abu Dhabi and focus future growth on Jebel Ali (JXB).  

Etihad means Unity in Arabic. I think it is just a matter of when and how.

What next in Thailand?

16 November 2008

Thailand's protracted political crisis has gone into a lull ahead of the cremation of the king's elder sister this weekend and the revered monarch's birthday on Dec. 5.

However, the basic conflict remains between the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD), which has occupied the prime minister's compound since August, and the government, which the PAD says is the puppet of former leader Thaksin Shinawatra.

Operating out of temporary offices in an old airport, the elected administration has all but given up on policy-making, intensifying investors' concerns about the export-dependent economy's ability to cope with global recession.

So what happens next . Here from Reuters (with my additional thoughts) are some broad scenarios. None is likely to heal the fundamental rift between the rural and urban poor who support Thaksin, ousted in a 2006 coup, and the Bangkok middle and upper classes who despise him.

CRISIS DRAGS ON, SPORADIC VIOLENCE

The crisis is likely to rumble on for months, with outbreaks of street violence as the PAD, anti-PAD groups and the police trade ritual, and sometimes real, punches.

Small grenades will be thrown and people will occasionally be shot -- there is some form of violence almost every day -- but the bloodshed will not be enough to trigger intervention either by the military or King Bhumibol Adulyadej.

COURTS DISBAND RULING PARTY

The Election Commission has already found the ruling People Power Party (PPP) guilty of vote buying and, if the Supreme Court agrees, it will be disbanded.

A decision is expected in December or January, and there is little doubt it will be against the PPP.

Top figures, such as Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat -- Thaksin's brother-in-law -- will be barred from politics, but it will not mean the end of the road for the pro-Thaksin forces.

Most MPs will simply switch to Puea Thai (For Thais), a "shell" party lined up for such an eventuality, and as long as the ruling coalition holds together, it will stay in power. Maybe with Thaksin's sister, Yinglak Shinawatra, as the party leader and PM designate.

Even if there was an election, Puea Thai would be likely to win due to the solid rural support for Thaksin.

Emotions will run high as the ruling nears.

PAD CAMPAIGN FIZZLES OUT

Opinion polls show waning public support for the PAD campaign, which has been snarling up traffic in central Bangkok for six months, and the number of people at its Government House sit-in is dwindling.

However, it is inconceivable that it will simply wither and die -- especially as it now has the explicit backing of Queen Sirikit, who attended the funeral of a 28-year-old female PAD supporter killed in clashes with police last month.

MILITARY LAUNCHES A COUP

It is never wise to rule out a coup in a country that has had, on average, one successful or attempted putsch every four years since the overthrow of absolute monarchy 76 years ago.

Army chief Anupong Paochinda has put public pressure on Somchai to stand down, but he has also consistently said the army would not take power as it is powerless to heal Thailand's basic political rift.

KING INTERVENES

Regarded as semi-divine by many Thais, the King carries huge informal political clout and in six decades on the throne has intervened in several disputes, favouring at various times both elected and military administrations.

However, the 80-year-old has stepped in previously only after major bloodshed, and his advancing years and deteriorating health raise doubts about his ability to calm any new outburst of violence.

From democracy to dictatorship

15 November 2008

The new Russia looks very like the old. Is Putin a new Lenin? Russian MPs yesterday took the first step in changing the constitution to pave the way for Vladimir Putin to make a comeback as president.

Putin stepped down in May as he was barred constitutionally from seeking a third successive term as president, and became prime minister. He was succeeded by his protege, Dmitry Medvedev, although Putin, a former head of Russian intelligence, is considered the power behind the throne.

The Duma, Russia's lower house of parliament, voted 388-58 to make changes to the constitution that would extend the presidential term from four to six years. The chamber, dominated by the pro-Kremlin United Russia party, also voted to extend its own term to five years from four.

The amendments need to pass through two more readings to change the constitution. Earlier this week Putin said he backed a longer term for the next president but said it was too early to say who that might be. The Kremlin said the constitutional change will not apply to the term Medvedev is serving now.

There is speculation that Medvedev would resign early, allowing Putin to become acting president and pave the way for new elections. If Putin wins the election - and he would be the overwhelming favourite - he could be in office for a further two six-year terms.

Before the vote, the Communist party leader, Gennady Zyuganov, condemned the changes and said his faction would not back them. He is in a small and endangered minority. His opposition party controls just 57 seats in the Duma.

Increasingly there appear to be few checks and balances in Russian politics. Putin is popular domestically. He has put sabre rattling back on the agenda. Critics practice heavy self censorship in an increasingly controlled media.

Emirates 380 to greet the Queen

12 November 2008

A flypast by an Emirates Airbus A380 is planned as part of celebrations to mark the arrival of the Cunard liner Queen Elizabeth 2 at its new home in Dubai later this month.

The QE2 left Southampton, UK, on her last voyage yesterday. She is due to arrive in Dubai after a passage through the Mediterranean and the Suez Canal on 26 November where she will eventually be preserved as an attraction alongside a specially constructed dock at the Palm Jumeirah island.

According to Emirates, a major event is planned to celebrate her arrival in Dubai. When she arrives at the Gulf port, she will be greeted by a flotilla of boats and ships led by the world's largest yacht, the Dubai, owned by the ruler of Dubai, Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al-Maktoum. Topping off the arrival celebrations will be a flypast by one of Emirates' newly-delivered A380s.

The ceremony echoes that for the RMS Queen Mary off the coast of California 40 years ago as she steamed towards her new home at Long Beach in December 1967. The ship was greeted by a DC-9 flown from the nearby Douglas Aircraft plant, which dropped red and white carnations on her decks.

A meek British Lamb

From The Asia Sentinel, 10 November 2008

"The sudden decision of the British government to cancel ousted Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra’s visa when he was out of the country was extraordinary. It has a nasty smell about it which suggests either that the British government is hoping for some business quid pro quo or that its diplomats in Bangkok are in thrall to the monarchists, deluded democrats and assorted thugs behind the People’s Alliance for Democracy.

Britain is well known for being host to many controversial persons wanted in their home countries for alleged crimes. They currently include a large contingent of rich Russians headed by one-time oligarch and former friend of Vladimir Putin, Boris Berezovsky. In the past they have included another former Thai Prime minister, Chatichai Choonhavan after his overthrow by the palace-approved military coup of 1991.

In earlier times the British helped democratic leader Pridi Panamyong escape into exile from the clutches of military strongman Pibul Songgram who organized the 1947 coup. (In a farcical trial Pridi was subsequently convicted of plotting regicide and spent the rest of his life in exile in France).

More recent Asian refugees have included such controversial figures as Malaysian banker Lorrain Osman, kept for years at public expense on remand in London while he fought, and eventually lost, the longest extradition case in British history. Indeed there are so many political refugees in the UK that its capital has become known to some as Londonistan.

So what is it that has induced London to pull Thaksin’s visa when he was out of the country and issue statements to airlines not to allow him on flights to the UK? The withdrawal of an existing visa and the demand to airlines seems to have been deliberately designed to humiliate Thaksin.

The British so-called defenders of democracy seem to have forgotten that Thaksin was overthrown in a coup and that his supporters won a subsequent election that the Bangkok elite declines to accept because it threatens their status and power to exploit the poorer classes, notably those in the countryside whose only political weapon is the ballot box.

It is well known that when in office Thaksin abused his powers and in a more perfect world should be held accountable. However, only the blindly ignorant or the intellectually dishonest could imagine that Thaksin and his wife were prosecuted for any other than political reasons. His case is not dissimilar to that of Anwar Ibrahim, jailed by Mahathir’s stooge judges to remove him from the political arena.

The British move is certainly good cheer for those who want to hand power to an unelected elite headed.... quite what motivated it is unclear. British diplomats in Asia have a reputation for living in a world of their own, ignoring their own country’s values as they seek to ingratiate themselves with local elites.

Noted one veteran British correspondent with many years experience in the region: “They are stand-offish towards those (including journalists) they like to think beneath them but grovel before people they believe have status. Few have any backbone”.

But the move cannot have done much to endear Britain to its large Thai community. Many of those doubtless oppose Thaksin but London’s place as a second home, a comfortable refuge, for many Thais out of favor at home, will surely be damaged by this move. It may not matter much to jobs-for-life British diplomats but it will do scant good to a London economy already reeling from the collapse of financial institutions.

In the Thaksin case it must also be asked whether the British government would have dared do this if he still owned the Manchester City football club, which he sold earlier this year to Arab interests from the Gulf. It will not be surprising if mercenary considerations are not eventually found to have driven the British decision, whether the driving force came from London or from its representatives in Bangkok. After all this is a government which abused its own powers and trashed the rule of law to shield British Aerospace from prosecution for corrupt payments on sales to Saudi Arabia.

That at any rate makes more sense than imagining that Queen Elizabeth intervened at the behest of King Bhumibol, or that British diplomats honestly believe in the independence of the Thai judiciary in cases involving prominent politicians."


Anti democracy in Thailand

11 November 2008

Thongchai Winichakul, Professor of History, University of Wisconsin-Madison

"Thailand is facing one of its biggest threats to its still-fledgling democracy. The anti-democratic movement led by the militant People’s Alliance for Democracy (PAD) - a misnomer if ever there was one - is pressing for the end of traditional electoral democracy. The succession crisis looming once King Bhumibol Adulyadej passes makes the turmoil a “perfect storm” with no end in sight.

The turmoil began with the unprecedented success of Thaksin Shinawatra, a billionaire politician whose party won landslide election victories twice, in 2001 and 2005 (and again in 2006 but was nullified by a dubious court’s ruling). His success was due primarily to his “populist” policies that benefited the lower-class majority of the country. Thaksin’s administration, however, was marred by human rights violations and corruption scandals, exacerbated by demagoguery and intolerance of criticism.

The PAD emerged in early 2006 to fight Thaksin. It supported the return of power to the monarchy - usually seen as the highest moral authority in the land - to clean up corrupt politics. The instability created by the PAD’s protest paved the way for a military coup in September 2006. The coup regime took various actions aiming at preventing Thaksin and his people from returning to power, including questionable legal actions and court rulings, a new constitution and a closely-monitored general election in December 2007.

Despite those measures and a barrage of anti-Thaksin sentiment in the media, Thaksin’s party easily won that 2007 poll. The PAD took to the streets again, this time occupying the grounds of the prime minister’s offices, vowing to stay and fight until the elected government was ousted and a new political system implemented.

The PAD is the convergence of at least four socio-political forces, with different reasons for hating Thaksin so much.

The first is, generally speaking, the Bangkok and other urban elite. These people fought the military for parliamentary democracy at various points from 1973 to 1992. They have enjoyed political influence over several governments, exercised through the mainstream media and politically active intellectuals. But the strong economic boom of the 1980s and 1990s, and indeed the blossoming of electoral politics, has brought forth the rising power of the rural and urban poor, and the lower middle class, who form the electoral majority.

Elections and politicians representing them are their channel to get a fair share of the country’s resources and power. Thaksin’s success reflected this social change, as his party built up its strong mass support among the rural folks despite the increasing scorn poured on him and his supporters by academics and the media. The disgruntled urban elite believe that the rural folks are, in their words, too ignorant and stupid for democracy. Electoral democracy, to the elite, is not suitable for Thailand because money can allegedly buy a ruling majority. This “class” factor is the reason for strong support to the PAD among the urban middle and upper class, including the mainstream media and academics, many of whom become fanatics of the PAD.

The second political force is the “bureaucratic power.” Before 1973, under military rule, the country was run by soldiers and technocrats who dominated the upper echelon of the bureaucracy. They believe that they represent the public interest better than elected representatives, because they consider the latter to be naturally corrupt. Democratization and elections since 1973 have opened the door to people outside the circle of these bureaucrats, who consequently have lost some of their power. They believe that democracy breeds endemic corruption and that Thaksin was taking the country down to the abyss.

The third force that operates the PAD is activists from various civil society and labor organizations, and a media empire owned by the leader of the PAD, Sondhi Limthongkul. Led by former leftist radicals who are veterans of the struggles for democracy of the 1970s and 80s, these activists bring an anti-capitalist ideology into the 21st century with a conservative twist, rooted in nationalism. They consider Thaksin emblematic of “evil capitalism” and globalization that would harm the country. Fighting the “evil capitalism” has been one of the PAD’s slogans, and radical songs of the 1970s were common at the PAD gathering, although Sondhi’s Manager Media Group, which includes a daily newspaper both in print and on-line, a radio broadcast and a satellite television (ASTV) is highly influential. Not only does it often set the headlines for the entire country, but the PAD also builds up its base of supporters via the ASTV. The PAD’s propaganda runs around the clock every day, feeding the public with their ideology, concocted news and information, and rumors and lies that serve their political agenda and viciously destroy their critics. The PAD’s demagoguery is more dangerous than Thaksin’s by far. But it is effective; the PAD is now like a cult, with hard-core followers who think and speak alike close-mindedly, and becomes increasingly militant. As they claim political righteousness, they defied laws, dehumanized critics and opponents and intimidated them too, and armed.

The last but perhaps most important element of the PAD is the monarchists. They are a network of the powerful conservative, royalist elite with varying vested interests in having a strong and active monarchy steering the country’s political life. They are responsible for empowering the politically influential monarchy of the past 40 years, while promoting the image of a semi-divine monarchy “above” politics. The much-revered monarchy is in fact very political but masquerades as being above self-interest, and is unaccountable, thanks in part to the severe lese-majeste laws.

The monarchists saw Thaksin as a serious threat at various levels: a patron of some royals in line for the throne and therefore a dangerous kingmaker (literally speaking); a competitor to the monarchy for popularity and a pretender himself; and the mastermind plotting a republic. The general belief in Thailand is that the president of the Privy Council, if not the king himself, was behind the 2006 coup. As the succession looms, given the health problems of 80-year-old King Bhumibol, the paranoia among these powerful monarchists escalates. They cannot allow Thaksin, or any politician, to be in an advantageous position. At the same time, various factions among the monarchists are jockeying for advantageous positions for the upcoming transition. The monarchists and the succession concern turn the brewing hatred against Thaksin among the other groups into a perfect political storm. The PAD is probably honest when they say that they are fighting for the monarchy, except the former leftists in its leadership who can sing the royal anthem louder than the royalists if doing so helps them achieve short-term goals.

Some of the allegations against Thaksin are justified, while others are specious. Yet Thaksin opponents have gone all out to get rid of Thaksin, his political machine, and his mass base. The judiciary went out of their way to destroy Thaksin by several questionable rulings including one that relied on a dictionary rather than laws, and one that involved a serious violation of the proper judicial process. In doing so, they damaged their credibility and put the future of the justice system at risk. The PAD also instigated the nationalist hostility against Cambodia that led to clashes between the two countries. The Queen publicly offers her support to the PAD, giving royal cremations to honor those who died in a violent confrontation with the police, one of whom while transporting bombs for the PAD.

The PAD makes clear that its goal is to replace one-man, one-vote electoral democracy with their “New Politics,” aka “Thai-style Democracy,” with only 50 percent of the country’s lawmakers being elected. The PAD is clear in their intent to dilute the voice of the majority. Some power would be given to the monarch or the Privy Council, in order to balance the power of corrupt politicians. This idea of “Thai-style Democracy” was originally hatched in 1906 when King Chulalongkorn, an absolute monarch, argued against the emerging ideas of democracy. The elite’s distrust in people never goes away. The PAD does not realize that if this approach is implemented, the monarchy might be headed down a dangerous path, because a powerful monarchy is bound to eventually become unpopular, and rarely lasts long.

The PAD’s strategy and tactics are to provoke violent confrontations, with unrest to serve as the pretext for military or royal intervention. Despite its violations of laws and highly aggressive actions, the PAD’s accumulation of arms and its increasing militancy have been condoned and excused by academics, the media and several human rights organizations, including the National Human Rights Commission, because their common enemy is Thaksin. They help provide an intellectual shield for the group.

The PAD behaves as if they are above the law because, after all, as many in the country know but cannot openly say, their ultimate supporters are among those in the highest places in the nation."

Bangkok bomb warnings

11 November 2008

More bad news for the tourism industry in Bangkok today as the Thai PM warned the public of bomb threats

Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat on Tuesday warned the public in the capital to avoid crowds and public areas such as parks based on advice from the city police that violence and explosions could occur in a number of locations.

The police, he said, had warned that bombings could erupt in many places throughout Bangkok after November 16 and the government has been watching after several groups had come out on streets and created chaos recently.

Police arrested several people possessing explosives in the past four days, Mr. Somchai said, adding that the public should avoid travelling in areas where troubles could occur.

The government is concerned because the royal cremation ceremonies of the late Princess Galyani Vadhana, elder sister of King Bhumibol Adulyadej, will still be underway on November 16, he said.

Emirates profits fall on oil prices

10 November 2008

To no one's surprise Emirates Airline produced a greatly reduced net profit of Dh284 million (US$77 million) for the first six months of its current financial year ending September 30, 2008. This is down 88 per cent compared to Dh2.36 billion (US$643 million) net profits for the same period in 2007, showing the impact of the record fuel prices earlier this year.

The profit fall is despite an increase in operating revenues of 31% to $6bn.

Shaikh Ahmed bin Saeed Al Maktoum, Chairman and Chief Executive, Emirates Airline and Group said: "The first half of the year has been very tough for the airline industry, with record fuel prices forcing many carriers to shut shop or consolidate. Emirates has worked hard to manage the impact of high fuel prices on our unit costs, while continuing to grow our business and provide our customers with a quality product and service."

Crude oil prices averaged $122 per barrel for the first six months of the financial year, up from an average of $67 for the same period last year, whilst the differential between crude and aviation fuel was also up from an average of $16 per barrel to $28. Overall, Emirates' fuel costs were higher than budgeted by Dh1.7 billion ($469 million).

The drop in profits reflect a 40 per cent increase in airline unit costs per tonne kilometre, with fuel spend more than doubling from last year's Dh4.1 billion ($1.1 billion) to Dh9.2 billion ($2.5 billion).

In the first-half of its financial year 2008-09, Emirates continued to post strong business growth, with operating revenues increasing by 31 per cent to Dh22.1 billion ($6 billion). Passenger traffic (RPKM) was up 11 per cent, cargo tonnes up 13 per cent, and passenger yield increased by 20 per cent.

Seat factor averaged 78.3 per cent, down slightly on 79.7 percent for last year, against a 13 per cent increase in capacity (ASKMs) due to the delivery of new planes, including the A380.

Thaksin caged in no man's land

10 November 2008

Thaksin Shinawatra, the deposed Thai Prime Minister and former owner of Manchester City Football Club, is now about as popular as Gary Glitter. No one wants them.

Thaksin told Reuters today that he had been “pushed into a corner” after the British government abruptly withdrew his visa, effectively placing the billionaire politician in international no man's land. 

"I will keep travelling,” he told the Reuters news agency by telephone. “I'm leaving Beijing at the moment . . . I dropped the asylum bid [in Britain] because I don't think it is necessary. I don't like the term asylum. I want freedom because I am a champion of democracy. I don't like anything that restricts freedom.”

Thaksin as a champion of democracy. You have to laugh. The trouble is he believes it. Buying votes was for him just a part of that democratic process. But then again he was elected. Which puts him a long way ahead of the

So what next for our caged hero. The Philippines became the latest country to deny him sanctuary after reports that he would travel there from China. “We will courteously tell Thaksin that we will not allow him to come to the country to seek political asylum,” Jesus Dureza, spokesman for President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo said.

The Bahamas are rumoured to have offered citizenship. Maybe he will make use of his home and connections in China.

But beware the caged hero. Thaksin told Reuters that “I will phone in and talk to the people who love and have faith in me...I will make a longer speech and start naming names because they have pushed me into a corner.” He is angry. In a rage. And he knows enough to bring others down with him.

The British decision was a surprise. The PAD will somehow claim that the British government's decision vindicates their anti-Thaksin stance and shows respect to the Thai courts' decisions. Nonsense. There is clearly reasoning behind the Home Office decision; but it has little to do with the Thai courts and less to do with the PAD. It is more a rather unsubtle way of avoiding political embarrassment.

The PAD claims supernatural threats

10 November 2008

Chang Noi remains the one reason to read the Nation newspaper - his commentaries are unusual in that they often deal with issues that are topical in teh Thai newspapers and in Thai online web communities but which are often ignored by the rest of Thailand's English language media. In his most recent column he tries to explain the rather alarming link between superstition, black magic and the current Thai political stand-off.

Unusually for the Bangkok English press it is clear that Chang Noi is no fan of the PAD or of Sondhi Limthongkul.

"On October 29, Sondhi Limthongkul gave a speech from the People's Alliance for Democracy stage, broadcast over ASTV, about a new front in his fight to "save the nation". He said:

"For many years in the past, the powers of many sacred things including the spirit of the City Pillar, the Equestrian Statue of King Rama V, Phra Sayam Thewathirat, and the Emerald Buddha, have been suppressed by evil people using magic. 'Suppress' does not mean destroy, because sacred objects cannot be destroyed, as they have too much power. But 'suppress' means not allowing them to emit their power, by encircling them. This is true. So we have just finished rectifying this in the last two to three weeks. Like at the statue of the Emerald Buddha.

"Behind it there is a stone. Evil-minded people had allied with some in the Royal Household Bureau to allow a Khmer adept to go behind the Emerald Buddha and take the stone away, because that stone is the important thing for emitting power."

The idea of protective forces is a major part of saiyasat or supernaturalism. It has nothing to do with Buddhism but reaches back to older folk beliefs. Most villages have a shrine for a protective spirit. Cities have a pillar. No new house is erected without a ceremony.

Sondhi has selected sites that are closely associated with the Chakri dynasty.

The Emerald Buddha is the Palladian statue of the dynasty. The City Pillar was erected by King Rama I to mark the founding of Bangkok. King Rama IV invented Phra Sayam Thewathirat because he felt Siam needed more protection in the colonial era. The Equestrian Statue of King Rama V has been converted into a guardian spirit by popular acclaim. Sondhi claims this complex of monuments that protects the nation and monarchy has come under sustained attack.

In old Siam, there were laws permitting the use of supernaturalism for defensive, protective purposes, but outlawed any usage with aggressive and malicious intent. Today there are no such laws but the same distinction remains in conventional practice. Wearing protective amulets is fine; cursing is questionable; rites to cause harm are unacceptable. This distinction is expressed by describing aggressive and malicious usage as "Khmer". In fact, there is no evidence that Cambodian supernaturalism is aggressive. Here "Khmer" is just a Thai word for "nasty". But of course this vocabulary reflects a bundle of narrow-minded, bad-neighbour prejudices.

Earlier Sondhi openly accused Thaksin of being behind the destruction of the Erawan Brahma statue in March 2006. Sondhi said Thaksin wished to thwart political forces rising up against him. Thaksin called the accusation "insane". Sondhi does not need to be so explicit this time but he seems to imply the same thing on a grander scale - a massive attempt to disrupt the spiritual forces protecting nation and monarchy.

Sondhi went on to describe his efforts in defence of the country. "The [base of the] Equestrian Statue is like this [draws hexagon with his hands] with the statue inside. Tacks had been inserted at the six corners so that the statue of the revered king could not emit its power. We drew out the tacks from all six places."

Presumably these tacks or nails are supernatural, imaginary articles anchoring an imaginary magical wall around the statue to pen in the spiritual forces. Presumably too, Sondhi's team used rituals to remove them rather than digging up the tarmac. He mentioned that "masters and adepts pulled out each of them". He went on to describe preventive measures for the future. Here the actions seem to have been real rather than imaginary.

"I must thank the women of the PAD because after [the tacks] were pulled out, to ensure they would not be replaced, they took sanitary napkins from menstruating women and placed them on the six points.

"Experts said the spirit adepts were furious because they could not send their spirits back; their magic was rendered ineffective."

Ideas about the fearful power of female sexuality are fundamental to a structure of male supremacy. In both Buddhism and supernaturalism, males are privileged in acquiring superior spiritual status. Only men can become Buddhist monks. Only men can draw yantra diagrams, activate amulets, utter incantations and use all the other techniques of saiyasat.

But female sexuality poses a terrifying threat to these powers. Thus monks have to remain celibate and avoid contact with women. Serious adherents of saiyasat also practice celibacy. Casual users remove their amulets before lovemaking to prevent their efficacy from getting annulled.

Menstrual blood is the most powerful symbol of this terrible, destructive power. There are rules and conventions about avoiding contact with this fearful force. In the past there were many restrictions involving women's underwear. But Sondhi is possibly breaking new ground by making active use of this substance as a weapon.

Since the clip of this speech made it to YouTube (search for "Sondhi"), contributors to several blogsites have concluded that Sondhi is "mad". Certainly he seems befuddled. Clearly he is espousing narrow-minded chauvinist prejudices about Thailand's neighbours and about women. Possibly his efforts to defend the capital's sacred sites are a form of desecration. The police, Fine Arts Department and Bangkok governor's office went to inspect the Equestrian Statue on the day after Sondhi's revelation, but no proceedings have been launched.

Sondhi concluded this part of his speech by asking: "We're talking about saving the nation. Is this part of saving the nation?"

How do his PAD colleagues and supporters feel about this new front in the fight to "save the nation" and about Sondhi's weapons of choice?

Somsak Kosaisuk, Somkiat Pongpaibun, and Pibhop Dhongchai seem to be hard-headed rationalists. Chamlong Srimuang's Santi Asoke Buddhism sect belongs to a purist tradition, which is highly antagonistic to saiyasat, though Chamlong might share some of Sondhi's male chauvinism.

How far can someone go as a self-appointed defender of religion and nation? When does the weaponry exceed some frontier of acceptability - slingshots, used golf clubs, guns, menses? What comes next?"

Another election first

9 November 2008

In Samut Prakan north of Bangkok a transvestite has won a village head election after decades of service to the community.

Choochat Dulayapraphatsorn, 46, beat three other candidates during the village head election in his community and is now the village chief of Ban Moo 3, tambon Tai Ban Mai, Muang district.

Mr Choochat, called ''Je Kob'' or older sister Kob by villagers, said he decided to run for the post after serving as an assistant. The election was held after the previous village head resigned.

Mr Choochat said he believes the residents voted for him because they have witnessed what he has contributed to their community over many years. Anyone who helps catch pythons would get my vote !

Over years of community service, Mr Choochat has been involved in community crime prevention activities and has assisted neighbours with tasks such as catching pythons which have entered their houses and injecting their pet dogs with rabies vaccine. ''Even though I am a transvestite, I can do hard, physical jobs just as well as the men, if not better,'' he said.

Mr Choochat is now the only transvestite village chief in Samut Prakan or anywhere else that I know of. He said he wants to be a role model to children for his hard work in the community, irrespective of his gender identity.

Obama is now President - elect - what next ??

Cash Crisis averted in Newton Ferrers

9 November 2008

The small South Devon village of Newton Ferrers has just saved itself from its own modern financial crisis.

The Co-operative Bank has made a U-turn on its decision to take away the community's only free cash machine, after publicity by the local newspaper.

The cash machine in the Co-Op shop in Newton Ferrers, on the outskirts of Plymouth, was emptied on Tuesday last week. The Co-op is at the top of the  hill leading down to the harbour, next to the Church.

The Co-operative Bank had previously said it was removing the machine because it was "uneconomical to run due to extremely low usage".

But this week, after protests by local people in The Herald, the bank suddenly reversed its decision.

The bank said that "the level of transactions for the Newton Ferrers cash machine was considerably below that required to sustain the service, and therefore the difficult decision was made to remove it. However, after campaigning by community members the positive move has been taken to continue to offer this valuable service.

"Plymouth and South West Co-operative Society and the Co-operative Bank have agreed to underwrite the current losses in the hope that the community will support the service and usage will increase."

Tim Pearce, Plymouth and South West Co-operative Society food chief operating officer, said: "We have been very aware of customers' concerns and we recognise that this is an important service to the community.

"I am hopeful that our customers will be very supportive of the service in the future, and that we will see an increase in the transactions in order to secure its longer term future in Newton Ferrers."

South Hams district councillor Suzie Cooper, who first highlighted the issue in The Herald, welcomed the change of heart.

"It's nice to win one occasionally," she said. "People have to use the machine now."
 

America is cool again

9 November 2008

It is remarkable how one day can change a nation and its perception around the world.

Barack Obama has made America cool again. There is a transition period before the January inauguration. The only wish is that Obama could start earlier. Bush is now the ultimate lame-duck President.

Reports are that Bush is even having trouble selling his memoirs to publishers. No one wants to know.

Bush leaves office with an economy in crisis, two foreign wars, a vast budget deficit and some of the lowest popularity ratings in history,

The White House for the first time in decades looks American. A family home; two bright young kids; a soon to be delivered, hypo-allergic, puppy.

There was humor and honesty in Obama's first press briefing as President-elect.  He was thoughtful, intelligent and used long words. Where has this been for the last eight years?

Obama Fever is global; across Africa, Asia and Europe he, and his family, are being embraced. Why, because he is young, energetic, articulate and because he gives us all hope. There has always been so much that is admired about America. But the nation lost its way and lots its position on the world stage.

Others have seen America's weakness and have been emboldened. From some South American nations, Russia and in the Middle East, America's influence has been challenged. But America now looks like replying with engagement rather than threats.

It is a great democracy that can so emphatically say that we know it is time for a change.

Has the UK cancelled Thaksin's visa?

8 November 2008

Under pressure not to provide shelter to ex Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra the British government has apparently revoked the visas of both Thaksin Shinawatra and his wife. Thaksin settled in the UK has a businessman, and that now he has sold Manchester City he no longer has any UK based business interests. This appears to have given the UK the justification to cancel his visa.

It is unclear whether Thaksin has in fact applied for asylum in the UK. If no application has yet been made then he will not be able to re-enter the UK.

Thaksin travels on a Thai passport which will limit him in respect of where he will be able to travel to, or settle in, around the world.

The British embassy had informed all airlines in an email on Friday not to allow the couple to board flights to Britain.

Thaksin, ousted in a 2006 coup, fled to Britain in early August and has since been sentenced in absentia to two years in prison for corruption.

While his exact whereabouts are unknown, he is thought to have been staying in China (Hong Kong) and was reported to be travelling from China to the Philippines for a meeting with PPP members.

Quantum of Gloom

7 November 2008

Quantum of Solace opened last night in the UAE. It is not a good film. And worse still the heavy hand of the UAE censor makes it even less watchable Leave in all the killing; but take out anything resembling a kiss.

The film is noisy from start to end. Migraine inducing. Much of the action is filmed in close up so you really have not got a clue what is happening

The plot, if there is one, makes little sense. The link of the bad guy, Mr. Green, to the old girlfriend, Vesper, is tenuous at best. Even Judi Dench looks a bit lost in this one.

The movie is one long chase; more Jason Bourne than James Bond. There is a foot chase, a car chase, a motorbike chase, another car chase, a boat chase, and an airplane chase. And lots of people die.

At the end Mr. Green is left in he desert with just a bottle of motor oil. He says to Bond; why are you doing this to me. I told you everything about Quantum. Now I am lost. We are 100 minutes into the movie and this is the first mention of Quantum. Green does not look like someone who would talk. But the scene before is missing. They have suddenly gone from the burning wreck of the hotel to the middle of the desert and this whole scene is missing. The censor? and what was it that was taken out?.

Worse still there is no humour. Bond always had a dry wit. That was part of the charm. Not here. Craig is a good actor. It is the character that is now miserable. The title song is dire. The product placement is blatant but not that effective. Virgin Atlantic gets a big plug. Since when did they fly to La Paz, Bolivia (they dont!). And the Sony phone gets used far more than is necessary.

Saving the film; Ms. Olga Kurylenko is easy on the eye. That's it.

Elton John gives up on Watford

7 November 2008

It should have been a lifelong love affair. Elton John grew up in Watford. From the age of 7, as Reg Dwight, he stood on the terraces the faithful and watched Watford through the 1960s and 1970s. Then as fame and fortune came, he was able to buy "his" team.

And he transformed the club.

In 1976 he became chairman for the first time. Though then in the old fourth division, Watford rose in six years to the top flight under the management of Graham Taylor, finishing runners-up to Liverpool in 1983, and reaching the FA Cup Final in 1984, when they lost 2-0 to Everton at Wembley Stadium. A tearful John sat in the Royal Box. I sat in the stands. 

It was a wonderful time. We were playing in Europe. The football was exhuberant; we scored a lot of goals. And conceded a few. Picking a team from that time is fun: seeing this side playing together would have been great entertainment.

Coton; Gibbs, Sims, McClelland, Rostron, Taylor, Jackett, Callaghan, Jenkins, Blissett, Barnes. - and a few subs: Sherwood, Johnston, Bolton, Rice, Bardsley.

There is an exhibition of those golden years at the Watford Museum with an online tribute  here!

Elton then sold the club in 1987 before buying it back in 1997, again becoming chairman. He stepped down from that role in 2002 after the ITV digital crisis but although no longer the majority shareholder, he retained a keen interest and held at concert at Vicarage Road in 2005 to raise funds for the club.

The second period of ownership was less auspicious and included the ill-fated reign of Gianluca Vialli as manager. Vialli was dismissed, shortly after John had stepped down, 12 months into a three-year contract. Watford had finished in fourteenth place in the first division, player wages had soared and, the next season, they only narrowly avoided going into administration.

Elton's latest and it appears final resignation is just just days after manager Aidy Boothroyd was axed.

'Elton wishes the team every success for the future,' said a statement. 'However, in the light of developments over the past few months, he feels he cannot remain in any formal position within the club.'

It is Boothroyd's sacking which is likely to have prompted the decision; the two are friends and regularly discussed football matters over the phone as Sir Elton liked to be kept informed of the team's progress. 

Last month the singer released a statement expressing his 'deep dismay at what is happening at the club' while giving his 'full backing to the manager and players'.

He also hit out at the board and chairman Graham Simpson for selling the club's leading players while questioning where the money spent from player sales and Premier League parachute payments had gone.

“Elton affirmed that he would always be a fan of Watford,” a press release said today. “He wishes the team every success for the future. However, in the light of developments over the past few months, he feels he cannot remain in any formal position within the club.”

For Watford FC - sorry indeed seems to be the hardest word.

Emirates continues Australia growth

7 November 2008

Emirates says that while demand is softening in some markets the outlook for Australia remains positive and the airline's plans continued expansion.

Future plans include the addition in February of a non-stop Brisbane-Dubai Airbus A340-500 service, a non-stop A340-500 Melbourne-Dubai flight, and the start of an A380 superjumbo Dubai-Sydney-Auckland service.

By February EK will have 63 flights a week from Dubai to Australia and 28 will continue trans-Tasman.

Long-term plans will depend on aircraft deliveries and markets, but Emirates expects to start A380 services to Melbourne late in 2009.

By the end of 2009 a third Sydney service is also expected.

Thai Airways in trouble

7 November 2008

Thai Airways is a mess. A state owned company run ny politicians not professionals and competing in a hard nosed global business. The latest casualty is that Mr. Chaisawasd Kittipornpaiboon, Chairman and member of the Board of Directors has resigned from his position. He had been with THAI for just 11 months

The airline recently reported its biggest quarterly losses in 10 years and the situation seems to be getting worse.

The airline will need to drastically slash costs more in order to weather the slump in travel demand caused by the worsening global financial crunch and the political standoff in Thailand.

Thai's problems are a high cost structure, lack of fleet commonality, too many people, slumping demand on intercontinental services where it must fill at least 70% of its seats to break even, and a sharp fall in passengers on several regional routes to China, Korea and Japan.

The airline still plans to acquire six Airbus A380 superjumbos, eight A330-300 wide-body jets and 20 A320 regional jetliners. They should seek to defer some of these purchases.

The airline is handicapped on retrenching staff due to complicated state-enterprise protection rules, but 400 personnel recently accepted voluntary early retirement costing THAI 700 million baht. There are 26,000 people on payroll. Actually it is less about state-enterprise protection rules and more about employees who are relatives, friends, cousins, maids of generals, colonels, politicians and other officials.

Singapore Airlines has 99 airplanes and 14 000 employees and Thai Airways has 88 airplanes and 26 000 employees.

The nine-month net loss was 6.61 billion baht (3.89 baht a share), compared with a profit of 2.53 billion (1.49 baht a share) in the same period last year. The results were partly saved by a forex gain of 4.73 billion baht in the third quarter versus a loss of 3.36 billion a year earlier, mostly due to the conversion of a loan into baht.

Third-quarter passenger revenue rose 10% to 43 billion baht, but it posted a loss from operations of 3.2 billion baht versus a profit of 2.43 billion a year earlier.

Analysts expect weak earnings in the fourth quarter as passenger volume is likely to be hurt by political instability in Thailand and the global financial crisis.

Emirates to complete Terminal 3 move

7 November 2008

Dubai-based airline Emirates will transfer its remaining flights to Dubai International Airport's new Terminal 3 on Tuesday 11 November.

Emirates said it will start using the terminal for flights to the Indian subcontinent, East Asia and Australasia, around 40 percent of the airline's total operations, at which point all the airline's flights will arrive and depart from Terminal 3.

The airline said the first flights to depart from the terminal under phase four would be EK584 to Dhaka at 1.15pm local time and EK502 to Mumbai at 1.20pm. The first flight to arrive will be EK658 from Male/Colombo at 3.00pm.

Obama's transcendence is beyond race
By RON FOURNIER – Associated Press

5 November 2008

 The elevation of Barack Obama to the White House is a transcendent moment, for what this election says about a nation where blacks were once considered property.

And that might be the least of it.

This is a once-in-a-lifetime event. At odd intervals — 1800, 1860, 1932, 1980 — the nation reaches a "pivot point," an election that draws the line between the past and the future. And 2008 appears to be just such a line in the shifting sands of our convulsive times.

Reagan-style conservative supremacy? Over. The era of baby boomer leadership? Waning.

And maybe, just maybe, something new has arrived: a post-partisan approach to governing, founded on the Obama Coalition, fueled by young and minority voters, powered by the 21st century technologies that helped turn a first-term senator from Illinois into a historic lodestone.

From the beginning, Obama had his sights on something bigger than the "50 percent plus one" approach championed by Karl Rove. He wanted a larger statement.

"Even if other candidates are able to eke out a victory, I think they are less likely to pull in independents and Republicans and new people who are currently not voting," Obama told The Associated Press 15 months ago.

"I think what people are looking for right now is somebody who can bring the country together and maybe shape the kind of majority that will actually deliver on health care, that will actually deliver on a bold energy strategy, that can actually do something about serious education reform."

On Tuesday, he received the huge wave of support he sought. But will he be able to do all that he promised? Will his ecstatic supporters be satisfied with anything less?

And did Obama really receive a mandate, or was he the beneficiary of the nation's disgust with President Bush, and its unease with America's course?

These are the questions that will be answered over the next four years. But for the moment, some astounding things are certain:

Our next president will be a man who identifies himself as black, but was raised by his white mother — a man who reflects the multiracial society America has become.

He was born in the 1960s, and was too young to experience the Vietnam era that left scars on the nation's psyche for decades. And his lack of experience, central to his opponents' campaigns against him in the primaries and general election, means that he is not necessarily invested in the way things have always been done.

Exit polls indicated that Obama's triumph was built on his overwhelming success with blacks, Hispanics, 18-to-34-year-olds and new voters.

This is the future of the U.S. electorate.

History shows that once a young voter casts ballots twice for a given party, he or she is unlikely to ever turn away. Hispanics are the nation's fastest-growing voting bloc. Indeed, the government recently reported that white people will no longer make up a majority of Americans by 2042, eight years sooner than previous estimates.

About one in 10 voters said this was the first year they had cast ballots, and 70 percent of them backed Obama. To cap it off, Obama won the female vote.

"From this day forward," says historian John Baick of Western New England College in Springfield, Mass., "politics, politicians and the people they serve will never be the same."

Obama takes over after 16 years of leadership by presidents born in the thick of the baby boom. In this fast-moving society, the worlds in which George W. Bush and Bill Clinton governed are so out of date they seem almost quaint.

Consider this: There were just a few hundred Web sites when Clinton took office and virtually no blogs when Bush entered the White House in January 2001.

Obama, of course, raised millions of dollars via the Internet. He tried to announce his selection of Joe Biden as his running mate with a text message. One of his favorite platforms, YouTube, did not exist when Bush began his second term.

When Obama needs help on Capitol Hill, the world's largest lobbying shop — millions of supporters strong — is a mass e-mail away. His campaign Web site, a virtual community, could evolve into the 21st century version of a political headquarters — the place you go to help the party or ask it to help you.

To some degree, Obama succeeded by turning the concept of micro-politics on its head. Founded by Clinton and perfected by Bush, micro-politics relies on the dark arts of data mining, voter segmentation and polling.

Micro-politicians divide the country into like-minded groups, then peel off their rivals' votes — a few from here, a few more from there — to cobble together narrow victories. They divide — or polarize — and conquer.

While Obama borrowed micro-targeting tactics from Bush and Clinton, the Illinois senator used them to find and motivate unregistered voters rather than to slice and dice the traditional crop.

"This is a realigning election because folks who are going to vote from here on out are people who don't have a strong partisan connection," says political scientist Natalie Davis of Birmingham Southern College in Birmingham, Ala. "They don't see things in terms of red and blue. They see things more in terms of solving problems."

But parties still matter, and with gains in the House and the Senate, Obama takes office with more political capital than perhaps any president since Lyndon Johnson defeated Barry Goldwater in 1964. That landslide produced a House with 295 Democrats and a Senate with 68 Democrats.

In addition, many Democrats who won seats in U.S. statehouses Tuesday night will play a role in drawing the next decade's political maps, a process that can cement the power of the ruling party.

Obama will need all the help he can get, as an inexperienced chief executive handed the burdens of a recession, a trillion-plus dollars in new government debt, an aging society, rising health care costs, failed energy policies and two foreign wars.

After a generation of politics based on promises of less government and lower taxes, Obama will ask Congress to expand government's reach and tackle the nation's massive problems. He even ran saying he would raise some people's taxes.

Again, those are tomorrow's tasks. For now, we can marvel at this moment, when we can look back and see the past, and look forward at a sharply drawn future.

Baick, the Western New England College historian, likens 2008 to 1960, and the victory of John F. Kennedy.

"He managed to convince Americans through popular memory and myth that we are good again," Baick says, "that we are different and young."

Echoes of Obama.

In 1960, the question that loomed over the campaign was whether a Catholic could get elected president. Voters answered yes. Nearly five decades later, that milestone is a mere footnote to the Kennedy presidency.

The question this time was whether a black man could win the presidency. Forty percent of all white Americans hold a negative view of blacks, according to polling by The Associated Press, and two-thirds of white Democrats express racial misgivings.

Yet on Election Day, Obama won more than four of every 10 white votes. Americans said yes, we can overcome our original sin.

Fifty years from now, President Obama will be remembered for more than the color of his skin.

And this moment will never be forgotten.

 

Prediction Time - Obama by 154 !

4 November 2008

I am more than a little bored with McCain's constant fight for America; he sounds like Boo Weekley at the Ryder Cup. McCain's constant invoking of a military theme; of the threats to America are tedious. So many of those threats were of America's own making or were the result of massive sleight of hand. The linking of Saddam to Al Qaeda should have been impeachable.

The war on terror is old news. The economy is today's news. Obama seems to understand that.

So time for a landslide win for Obama.

Predictions - Barack Obama will win a decisive electoral victory.

Obama will win the existing Democratic states and the previously Republican states of Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, Ohio, Virginia, Nevada, Florida and North Carolina.

With 270 delegates needed I am predicting 346 for Obama leaving 192 for McCain.

McCain meanwhile looks exhausted. He is a decent man. But the Republicans look likely to have to rebuild and they should do so without McCain or Palin.

China and Taiwan agree closer links

4 November 2008

While there are many in Taiwan who want true independence from China today's agreement s may represent reality. China will never allow Taiwan complete independence. But they do have common interests in commerce and trade. Maybe the over riding financial ambitions of the people of both countries will take precedence over politics and allow China and Taiwan to grow separately but together. One country, two systems sounds familiar.

There will be a cost to Hong Kong from today's new agreements. Particularly to Cathay Pacific and to the shipping sector. China and Taiwan will establish direct flights across the Taiwan Strait and agreed on shipping and postal links.

108 weekly flights will no longer have to go through Hong Kong airspace. In addition the two sides also agreed to direct shipping links between 63 Chinese ports and 11 Taiwanese ports. The transport links will take effect within 40 days, according to the Web site of Taiwan's Straits Exchange Foundation.

By boosting ties with China, the island's biggest trading partner, Taiwan President Ma Ying-jeou hopes to revive the economy. Supporters of the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party staged a rally in Taipei yesterday evening, protesting against what they call Ma's sellout of the island's sovereignty in exchange for economic benefits.

The timing is almost inevitable when Taiwan's hi-tech export led economy is getting clobbered by the global financial crisis. Taiwan needs the access to China's markets to sustain its own growth.

Until this agreement was signed all cargo and passenger flights over the Taiwan Strait have been, forcing goods and people to travel via a third port, usually Hong Kong, (also Macau) extending travel time and increasing cost.

Flights between the mainland and Taiwan will no longer have to go via Hong Kong, said Zheng Lizhong, the deputy to China's top Taiwan envoy, at a separate briefing. Only companies from Taiwan and China can manage the transportation services, according to the agreements.

China and Taiwan will discuss financial ties in the coming months, including allowing Taiwan banks to directly buy stakes in or units of banks and securities brokerages in China.

Politics will become an issue one day in the future; but for now economics matters more than sovereignty. And China's softer approach to Taiwan may win it far more friends than decades of sabre-rattling.

Race and the race for the White House

2 November 2008

It is hard to say this - but if Barack Obama was white - a male Clinton for instance, this election would have been over long ago.

But Obama is mixed. And this makes many Americans scared, defensive and in some cases hostile.

Why is race such an issue in a nation of immigrants? I don't intend to try a huge historical analyisis here.

America is riddled with the burdens of racial inequality, ghetto isolation, horrendous rates of incarceration, and economic disparity based upon race. This will not change overnight even with an Obama win.

But it is a move toward the goals that Martin Luther King dreamt of.

It was in 1956 that Rosa Parks was pictured sitting in the front of a city bus in Montgomery, Alabama. She was arrested for refusing to give up her seat for a white man. Her defiance subsequently launched the era of protests that lasted through the 1960s

It was in the 1960s that Brown v. Board of Education ended legal segregation in schools. But it still took an order from President Eisenhower and the summoning of federal troops to get black students into schools.

Yet these were children of men and women who had fought for America in the Second World War.

Then in 1963 Martin Luther King delivered his searing 'I have a dream' speech at the March on Washington. Two weeks after that, four little girls died when white supremacists bombed their church in Alabama; and two months after that, President Kennedy was assassinated.

These events put political pressure on President Johnson, as well as on Congress, to sign and pass the Civil Rights Act of 1964, which allowed outlawed discrimination based on race, colour, religion and national origin; and the Voting Rights Act of 1965, striking down literacy tests, poll taxes and other barriers designed to disfranchise black citizens. Johnson also issued Executive Order No. 11246, which required that 'affirmative action' be taken to hire more minorities in all realms of public employment.

In 1967, the last formal legal barrier fell - the case of Loving v. Virginia overturned the anti-miscegenation laws that had made it illegal for blacks and whites to marry one another in 16 states. That is only 41 years ago !

The Civil Rights movement moved from integrating schools to a broader movement for fair housing, equal pay, dignity and respect. Black Americans  were appointed to cabinet-level posts, military commands and the Supreme Court. There were sufficient numbers of African Americans elected to Congress that the Congressional Black Caucus was founded.

Today, there are hundreds of black mayors in all parts of the United States, including the Deep South. And as the demographics of the United States have changed, so-called piggy-back coalitions have intersected with the core of the movement: other ethnic and religious minorities, immigrants, farm workers, women, gays, disabled and the elderly have all participated in pursuing the dream.

There is still discrimination; economic hardship and prejudice. But as as symbol of a modern integrated America few things there can be nothing more resounding than the prospect and vision of President Barack Obama.

'The election of Obama would, at a stroke, refresh our country's spirit'

2 November 2008

The New Yorker magazine is one of the USA's leading journals of politics and culture. Here, in their leader column ahead of the election, the editors of the magazine offer their detailed analysis of the choice facing America, deconstruct the strengths and weaknesses of the candidates and finish with a powerful endorsement of Barack Obama as the man best suited to answer the grave challenges facing the next President.

This is a critical election for the USA and its role in the world, perhaps more so than any time in modern history. Americans, and the international community, need a rebranding of  America after a presidency has - at the levels of competence, vision and integrity - undermined the country and its ideals?

A change is needed. There is risk in placing too much expectation on Obama's presidency. Change will not be immediate. But change is a must and he can deliver that change. The negativity of the McCain campaign; the sheer incompetence of the decision to appoint Ms Palin as his running mate. The legacy of the Bush years. The sense of A Republican Fortress America railing against the world. It is all too depressing to consider.

On November 4th we should all be encouraging all our American friends to vote for Obama, and hope for the landslide win that will send a huge message of hope domestically and internationally.

The New Yorker: "Obama has returned eloquence to its essential place in American politics."

"The incumbent administration has distinguished itself for the ages. The presidency of George W Bush is the worst since Reconstruction, so there is no mystery about why the Republican party - which has held dominion over the executive branch of the federal government for the past eight years and the legislative branch for most of that time - has little desire to defend its record, domestic or foreign. The only speaker at the convention in St Paul who uttered more than a sentence or two in support of the President was his wife, Laura. Meanwhile, the nominee, John McCain, played the part of a vaudeville illusionist, asking to be regarded as an apostle of change after years of embracing the essentials of the Bush agenda with ever-increasing ardour.

The Republican disaster begins at home. Even before taking into account whatever fantastically expensive plan eventually emerges to help rescue the financial system from Wall Street's long-running pyramid schemes, the economic and fiscal picture is bleak. During the Bush administration, the national debt, now approaching $10 trillion, has nearly doubled. Next year's federal budget is projected to run a $500bn deficit, a precipitous fall from the $700bn surplus that was projected when Bill Clinton left office. Private-sector job creation has been a sixth of what it was under President Clinton. Five million people have fallen into poverty. The number of Americans without health insurance has grown by seven million, while average premiums have nearly doubled. Meanwhile, the principal domestic achievement of the Bush administration has been to shift the relative burden of taxation from the rich to the rest. For the top 1 per cent of us, the Bush tax cuts are worth, on average, about a thousand dollars a week; for the bottom fifth, about a dollar and a half. The unfairness will only increase if the painful, yet necessary, effort to rescue the credit markets ends up preventing the rescue of our healthcare system, our environment and our physical, educational and industrial infrastructure.

At the same time, 150,000 American troops are in Iraq and 33,000 are in Afghanistan. There is still disagreement about the wisdom of overthrowing Saddam Hussein and his horrific regime, but there is no longer the slightest doubt that the Bush administration manipulated, bullied and lied the American public into this war and then mismanaged its prosecution in nearly every aspect. The direct costs, besides an expenditure of more than $600bn, have included the loss of more than 4,000 Americans, the wounding of 30,000, the deaths of tens of thousands of Iraqis and the displacement of four and a half million men, women and children. Only now, after American forces have been fighting for a year longer than they did in the Second World War, is there a glimmer of hope that the conflict in Iraq has entered a stage of fragile stability.

The indirect costs, both of the war in particular and of the administration's unilateralist approach to foreign policy in general, have also been immense. The torture of prisoners, authorised at the highest level, has been an ethical and a public diplomacy catastrophe. At a moment when the global environment, the global economy and global stability all demand a transition to new sources of energy, the United States has been a global retrograde, wasteful in its consumption and heedless in its policy. Strategically and morally, the Bush administration has squandered the American capacity to counter the example and the swagger of its rivals. China, Russia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and other illiberal states have concluded, each in its own way, that democratic principles and human rights need not be components of a stable, prosperous future. At recent meetings of the United Nations, emboldened despots like Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of Iran came to town sneering at our predicament and hailing the 'end of the American era'.

The election of 2008 is the first in more than half a century in which no incumbent President or Vice-President is on the ballot. There is, however, an incumbent party and that party has been lucky enough to find itself, apparently against the wishes of its 'base', with a nominee who evidently disliked George W Bush before it became fashionable to do so. In South Carolina, in 2000, Bush crushed John McCain with a sub rosa primary campaign of such viciousness that McCain lashed out memorably against Bush's Christian Right allies. So profound was McCain's anger that in 2004 he flirted with the possibility of joining the Democratic ticket under John Kerry. Bush, who took office as a 'compassionate conservative', governed immediately as a rightist ideologue. During that first term, McCain bolstered his reputation, sometimes deserved, as a 'maverick' willing to work with Democrats on such issues as normalising relations with Vietnam, campaign finance reform and immigration reform. He co-sponsored, with John Edwards and Edward Kennedy, a patients' bill of rights. In 2001 and 2003 he voted against the Bush tax cuts. With John Kerry, he co-sponsored a bill raising auto fuel efficiency standards and, with Joseph Lieberman, a cap-and-trade regime on carbon emissions. He was one of a minority of Republicans opposed to unlimited drilling for oil and gas off America's shores.

Since the 2004 election, however, McCain has moved remorselessly rightwards in his quest for the Republican nomination. He paid obeisance to Jerry Falwell and preachers of his ilk. He abandoned immigration reform, eventually coming out against his own bill. Most shockingly, McCain, who had repeatedly denounced torture under all circumstances, voted in February against a ban on the very techniques of 'enhanced interrogation' that he himself once endured in Vietnam - as long as the torturers were civilians employed by the CIA.

On almost every issue, McCain and the Democratic party's nominee, Barack Obama, speak the generalised language of 'reform', but only Obama has provided a convincing, rational and fully developed vision. McCain has abandoned his opposition to the Bush-era tax cuts and has taken up the demagogic call - in the midst of recession and Wall Street calamity, with looming crises in social security, Medicare and Medicaid - for more tax cuts. Bush's expire in 2011. If McCain, as he has proposed, cuts taxes for corporations and estates, the benefits once more would go disproportionately to the wealthy.

In Washington the craze for pure market triumphalism is over. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson arrived in town (via Goldman Sachs) a Republican, but it seems that he will leave a Democrat. In other words, he has come to see that the abuses that led to the current financial crisis - not least, excessive speculation on borrowed capital - can be fixed only with government regulation and oversight. McCain, who has never evinced much interest in, or knowledge of, economic questions, has had little of substance to say about the crisis. His most notable gesture of concern - a melodramatic call to suspend his campaign and postpone the first presidential debate until the government bail-out plan was ready - soon revealed itself as an empty diversionary tactic.

By contrast, Obama has made a serious study of the mechanics and the history of this economic disaster and of the possibilities of stimulating a recovery. Last March, in New York, in a speech notable for its depth, balance and foresight, he said: 'A complete disdain for pay-as-you-go budgeting, coupled with a generally scornful attitude towards oversight and enforcement, allowed far too many to put short-term gain ahead of long-term consequences.' Obama is committed to reforms that value not only the restoration of stability but also the protection of the vast majority of the population, which did not partake of the fruits of the binge years. He has called for greater and more programmatic regulation of the financial system; the creation of a National Infrastructure Reinvestment Bank, which would help reverse the decay of our roads, bridges and mass-transit systems and create millions of jobs; and a major investment in the green-energy sector.

On energy and global warming, Obama offers a set of forceful proposals. He supports a cap-and-trade programme to reduce America's carbon emissions by 80 per cent by 2050 - an enormously ambitious goal, but one that many climate scientists say must be met if atmospheric carbon dioxide is to be kept below disastrous levels. Large emitters, such as utilities, would acquire carbon allowances and those which emit less carbon dioxide than their allotment could sell the resulting credits to those which emit more; over time, the available allowances would decline. Significantly, Obama wants to auction off the allowances; this would provide $15bn a year for developing alternative energy sources and creating job-training programmes in green technologies. He also wants to raise federal fuel-economy standards and to require that 10 per cent of America's electricity be generated from renewable sources by 2012. Taken together, his proposals represent the most coherent and far-sighted strategy ever offered by a presidential candidate for reducing the nation's reliance on fossil fuels.

There was once reason to hope that McCain and Obama would have a sensible debate about energy and climate policy. McCain was one of the first Republicans in the Senate to support federal limits on carbon dioxide and he has touted his own support for a less ambitious cap-and-trade programme as evidence of his independence from the White House. But, as polls showed Americans growing jittery about gasoline prices, McCain apparently found it expedient in this area, too, to shift course. He took a dubious idea - lifting the federal moratorium on offshore oil drilling - and placed it at the centre of his campaign. Opening up America's coastal waters to drilling would have no impact on gasoline prices in the short term and, even over the long term, the effect, according to a recent analysis by the Department of Energy, would be 'insignificant'. Such inconvenient facts, however, are waved away by a campaign that finally found its voice with the slogan 'Drill, baby, drill!'

The contrast between the candidates is even sharper with respect to the third branch of government. A tense equipoise currently prevails among the justices of the Supreme Court, where four hardcore conservatives face off against four moderate liberals. Anthony M Kennedy is the swing vote, determining the outcome of case after case.

McCain cites Chief Justice John Roberts and Justice Samuel Alito, two reliable conservatives, as models for his own prospective appointments. If he means what he says, and if he replaces even one moderate on the current Supreme Court, then Roe v Wade will be reversed and states will again be allowed to impose absolute bans on abortion. McCain's views have hardened on this issue. In 1999 he said he opposed overturning Roe; by 2006 he was saying that its demise 'wouldn't bother me any'; by 2008 he no longer supported adding rape and incest as exceptions to his party's platform opposing abortion.

But scrapping Roe - which, after all, would leave states as free to permit abortion as to criminalise it - would be just the beginning. Given the ideological agenda that the existing conservative bloc has pursued, it's safe to predict that affirmative action of all kinds would likely be outlawed by a McCain court. Efforts to expand executive power, which in recent years certain justices have nobly tried to resist, would be likely to increase. Barriers between church and state would fall; executions would soar; legal checks on corporate power would wither - all with just one new conservative nominee on the court. And the next President is likely to make three appointments.

Obama, who taught constitutional law at the University of Chicago, voted against confirming not only Roberts and Alito but also several unqualified lower-court nominees. As an Illinois state senator, he won the support of prosecutors and police organisations for new protections against convicting the innocent in capital cases. While McCain voted to continue to deny habeas corpus rights to detainees, perpetuating the Bush administration's regime of state-sponsored extra-legal detention, Obama took the opposite side, pushing to restore the right of all US-held prisoners to a hearing. The judicial future would be safe in his care.

In the shorthand of political commentary, the Iraq war seems to leave McCain and Obama roughly even. Opposing it before the invasion, Obama had the prescience to warn of a costly and indefinite occupation and rising anti-American radicalism around the world; supporting it, McCain foresaw none of this. More recently, in early 2007, McCain risked his presidential prospects on the proposition that five additional combat brigades could salvage a war that by then appeared hopeless. Obama, along with most of the country, had decided that it was time to cut American losses. Neither candidate's calculations on Iraq have been as cheaply political as McCain's repeated assertion that Obama values his career over his country; both men based their positions, right or wrong, on judgment and principle.

President Bush's successor will inherit two wars and the realities of limited resources, flagging popular will and the dwindling possibilities of what can be achieved by American power. McCain's views on these subjects range from the simplistic to the unknown. In Iraq, he seeks 'victory' - a word that General David Petraeus refuses to use, and one that fundamentally misrepresents the messy, open-ended nature of the conflict. As for Afghanistan, on the rare occasions when McCain mentions it he implies that the surge can be transferred directly from Iraq, which suggests that his grasp of counterinsurgency is not as firm as he insisted it was during the first presidential debate. McCain always displays more faith in force than interest in its strategic consequences. Unlike Obama, McCain has no political strategy for either war, only the dubious hope that greater security will allow things to work out. Obama has long warned of deterioration along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border and has a considered grasp of its vital importance. His strategy for both Afghanistan and Iraq shows an understanding of the role that internal politics, economics, corruption and regional diplomacy play in wars where there is no battlefield victory.

Unimaginably painful personal experience taught McCain that war is above all a test of honour: maintain the will to fight on, be prepared to risk everything and you will prevail. Asked during the first debate to outline 'the lessons of Iraq', McCain said: 'I think the lessons of Iraq are very clear: that you cannot have a failed strategy that will then cause you to nearly lose a conflict.' A soldier's answer - but a statesman must have a broader view of war and peace. The years ahead will demand not only determination but also diplomacy, flexibility, patience, judiciousness and intellectual engagement. These are no more McCain's strong suit than the current President's. Obama, for his part, seems to know that more will be required than will power and force to extract some advantage from the wreckage of the Bush years.

Obama is also better suited for the task of renewing the bedrock foundations of American influence. An American restoration in foreign affairs will require a commitment not only to international co-operation but also to international institutions that can address global warming, the dislocations of what will likely be a deepening global economic crisis, disease epidemics, nuclear proliferation, terrorism and other, more traditional security challenges. Many of the Cold War-era vehicles for engagement and negotiation - the United Nations, the World Bank, the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty regime, the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation - are moribund, tattered, or outdated. Obama has the generational outlook that will be required to revive or reinvent these compacts. He would be the first postwar American President unencumbered by the legacies of either Munich or Vietnam.

The next President must also restore American moral credibility. Closing Guantánamo, banning all torture and ending the Iraq war as responsibly as possible will provide a start, but only that. The modern presidency is as much a vehicle for communication as for decision-making and the relevant audiences are global. Obama has inspired many Americans in part because he holds up a mirror to their own idealism. His election would do no less - and likely more - overseas.

What most distinguishes the candidates, however, is character - and here, contrary to conventional wisdom, Obama is clearly the stronger of the two. Not long ago, Rick Davis, McCain's campaign manager, said: 'This election is not about issues. This election is about a composite view of what people take away from these candidates.' The view that this election is about personalities leaves out policy, complexity and accountability. Even so, there's some truth in what Davis said - but it hardly points to the conclusion that he intended.

Echoing Obama, McCain has made 'change' one of his campaign mantras. But the change he has provided has been in himself and it is not just a matter of altering his positions. A willingness to pander and even lie has come to define his presidential campaign and its televised advertisements. A contemptuous duplicity, a meanness, has entered his talk on the stump - so much so that it seems obvious that, in the drive for victory, he is willing to replicate some of the same underhanded methods that defeated him eight years ago in South Carolina.

Perhaps nothing revealed McCain's cynicism more than his choice of Sarah Palin, the former mayor of Wasilla, Alaska, who had been governor of that state for 21 months, as the Republican nominee for Vice-President. In the interviews she has given since her nomination, she has had difficulty uttering coherent unscripted responses about the most basic issues of the day. We are watching a candidate for Vice-President cram for her ongoing exam in elementary domestic and foreign policy. This is funny as a Tina Fey routine on Saturday Night Live, but as a vision of the political future it's deeply unsettling. Palin has no business being the back-up to a President of any age, much less to one who is 72 and in imperfect health. In choosing her, McCain committed an act of breathtaking heedlessness and irresponsibility. Obama's choice, Joe Biden, is not without imperfections. His tongue sometimes runs in advance of his mind, providing his own fodder for late-night comedians, but there is no comparison with Palin. His deep experience in foreign affairs, the judiciary and social policy makes him an assuring and complementary partner for Obama.

The longer the campaign goes on, the more the issues of personality and character have reflected badly on McCain. Unless appearances are very deceptive, he is impulsive, impatient, self-dramatising, erratic and a compulsive risk-taker. These qualities may have contributed to his usefulness as a 'maverick' senator. But in a President they would be a menace.

By contrast, Obama's transformative message is accompanied by a sense of pragmatic calm. A tropism for unity is an essential part of his character and of his campaign. It is part of what allowed him to overcome a Democratic opponent who entered the race with tremendous advantages. It is what helped him forge a political career relying both on the liberals of Hyde Park and on the political regulars of downtown Chicago. His policy preferences are distinctly liberal, but he is determined to speak to a broad range of Americans who do not necessarily share his every value or opinion. For some who oppose him, his equanimity even under the ugliest attack seems like hauteur; for some who support him, his reluctance to counterattack in the same vein seems like self-defeating detachment.

Yet it is Obama's temperament - and not McCain's - that seems appropriate for the office both men seek and for the volatile and dangerous era in which we live. Those who dismiss his centredness as self-centredness or his composure as indifference are as wrong as those who mistook Eisenhower's stolidity for denseness or Lincoln's humour for lack of seriousness.

Nowadays almost every politician who thinks about running for President arranges to become an author. Obama's books are different: he wrote them. The Audacity of Hope (2006) is a set of policy disquisitions loosely structured around an account of his freshman year in the United States Senate.

Though a campaign manifesto of sorts, it is superior to that genre's usual blowsy pastiche of ghostwritten speeches. But it is Obama's first book, Dreams from My Father: A Story of Race and Inheritance (1995), that offers an unprecedented glimpse into the mind and heart of a potential President. Obama began writing it in his early thirties, before he was a candidate for anything. Not since Theodore Roosevelt has an American politician this close to the pinnacle of power produced such a sustained, highly personal work of literary merit before being definitively swept up by the tides of political ambition.

A presidential election is not the awarding of a Pulitzer prize: we elect a politician and, we hope, a statesman, not an author. But Obama's first book is valuable in the way that it reveals his fundamental attitudes of mind and spirit. Dreams from My Father is an illuminating memoir not only in the substance of Obama's own peculiarly American story but also in the qualities he brings to the telling: a formidable intelligence, emotional empathy, self-reflection, balance and a remarkable ability to see life and the world through the eyes of people very different from himself. In common with nearly all other senators and governors of his generation, Obama does not count military service as part of his biography. But his life has been full of tests - personal, spiritual, racial, political - that bear on his preparation for great responsibility.

It is perfectly legitimate to call attention, as McCain has done, to Obama's lack of conventional national and international policy-making experience. We, too, wish he had more of it. But office-holding is not the only kind of experience relevant to the task of leading a wildly variegated nation. Obama's immersion in diverse human environments (Hawaii's racial rainbow, Chicago's racial cauldron, countercultural New York, middle-class Kansas, predominantly Muslim Indonesia), his years of organising among the poor, his taste of corporate law and his grounding in public-interest and constitutional law - these, too, are experiences. And his books show that he has wrung from them every drop of insight and breadth of perspective they contained.

The exhaustingly, sometimes infuriatingly, long campaign of 2008 (and 2007) has had at least one virtue: it has demonstrated that Obama's intelligence and steady temperament are not just figments of the writer's craft. He has made mistakes, to be sure. (His failure to accept McCain's imaginative proposal for a series of unmediated joint appearances was among them.) But, on the whole, his campaign has been marked by patience, planning, discipline, organisation, technological proficiency and strategic astuteness. Obama has often looked two or three moves ahead, relatively impervious to the permanent hysteria of the hourly news cycle and the cable news shouters. And when crisis has struck, as it did when the divisive antics of his ex-pastor threatened to bring down his campaign, he has proved equal to the moment, rescuing himself with a speech that not only drew the poison but also demonstrated a profound respect for the electorate.

Although his opponents have tried to attack him as a man of 'mere' words, Obama has returned eloquence to its essential place in American politics. The choice between experience and eloquence is a false one - something that Lincoln, out of office after a single term in Congress, proved in his own campaign of political and national renewal. Obama's 'mere' speeches on everything from the economy and foreign affairs to race have been at the centre of his campaign and its success; if he wins, his eloquence will be central to his ability to govern.

We cannot expect one man to heal every wound, to solve every major crisis of policy. So much of the presidency, as they say, is a matter of waking up in the morning and trying to drink from a fire hydrant. In the quiet of the Oval Office, the noise of immediate demands can be deafening. And yet Obama has precisely the temperament to shut out the noise when necessary and concentrate on the essential.

The election of Obama - a man of mixed ethnicity, at once comfortable in the world and utterly representative of 21st-century America - would, at a stroke, reverse our country's image abroad and refresh its spirit at home. His ascendance to the presidency would be a symbolic culmination of the civil- and voting - rights acts of the 1960s and the century-long struggles for equality that preceded them. It could not help but say something encouraging, even exhilarating, about the country, about its dedication to tolerance and inclusiveness, about its fidelity, after all, to the values it proclaims in its textbooks. At a moment of economic calamity, international perplexity, political failure and battered morale, America needs both uplift and realism, both change and steadiness. It needs a leader temperamentally, intellectually and emotionally attuned to the complexities of our troubled globe. That leader's name is Barack Obama."

Looking for the Fat Controller

2 November 2008

Thailand is rather belatedly searching for a Fat Controller to run Thomas the Tank Engine and his new fleet of trains on the new rail link to Bangkok Airport.

Construction of the rail link will be completed in May 20009. One technical oversight; no one has yet appointed a company to run the rail service. Given that construction on the rail link started in 2005 this does appear to be something of an oversight. But given the complete stagnation of all government projects since the 2006 coup this may not be a surprise.

The State Railway of Thailand (SRT) board has now proposed that a private company operates the new Airport Rail Link until a subsidiary can be set up to handle the service.  Implying that the SRT has no resource or plans to run the rail service when the link is completed.

The Airport Rail Link runs from Suvarnabhumi airport to Makkasan station. After construction is complete, the new link will be tested for about three months. The SRT had planned to open the service on Aug 12 next year, to mark Her Majesty the Queen's birthday.

The SRT board have now said that if SRT management cannot form the subsidiary in time, it should hire a company experienced in railway operations to run the link initially. During that period, the SRT could hire the operator to train its staff to allow the subsidiary to take over operations.

Basically there is no plan. And there are 9 months to opening date!

Beware of what you post online

2 November 2008

I am in a quiet spell of writing at the moment. I do have some personal news to share but it will wait until I am ready to comment.

In the meantime 13 Virgin Atlantic staff are now jobless after the airline sacked the flight attendants for criticising the airline's flight safety standards and describing its passengers as "chavs" on a social networking website.

The staff were dismissed yesterday as Sir Richard Branson's company said their behaviour was "totally inappropriate" and had "brought the company into disrepute". In a statement, the airline said: "Virgin Atlantic can confirm that 13 members of its cabin crew will be leaving the company after breaking staff policies due to totally inappropriate behaviour.

"Following a thorough investigation, it was found that all 13 staff participated in a discussion on the networking site Facebook, which brought the company into disrepute and insulted some of our passengers."

Virgin Atlantic launched its investigation last Thursday after the messages were posted by members of the Facebook group, which has now been removed, about flights from Gatwick. The online messages also reportedly claimed the airline's jet engines were replaced four times in one year and that planes were full of cockroaches.

Thaksin stars at Bangkok rally

1 November 2008

Thaksin Shinawatra is still the star attraction on Thai politics, even from self imposed exile. And he remains the one man who has the star quality to attract a huge crowd of supporters including 90,000 in Rajamangala, Bangkok's national football stadium, tonight. And after a dramatic build up the great man called in to say hallo and that he missed them !

And the 90,000 were all in red and by all account were having a grand night out. The red colour is meant to symbolise their pro-government and pro-Thaksin stance. A far larger crowd than has attended any PAD rally.

It was Thaksin's first address to supporters since leaving the kingdom and being sentenced in absentia on October 21 to two years in jail for violating corruption laws.

His fans, calling themselves the United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD), come mostly from the country's majority rural poor and say they are upholding democracy. His fans incidentally are largely responsible for the election of the current government.

Meanwhile the anti-government People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) who have never been elected and yet have assumed the mantle for the opposition have occupied the grounds of the prime minister's offices since August calling for the government to step down.

UDD core member Veera Musikhapong, who co-hosts the Truth Today political talk show, received the former premier’s phone call at around 8.50pm.

“Good evening fellow citizens who love democracy. Can you remember my voice? I miss you…I cannot return yet because they have ordered me to serve two years in prison. However, I could not return so they now want to keep me for ten years. Do you want me to stay abroad for 10 years?” Mr Thaksin asked.

He told the crowd that he is a former prime minister with the most votes in Thai history who faced assassination attempts and had been ousted by a coup when public members were praising his government. The coup of September 19, 2006 aimed to deal with only one person, he added.

“I have received a two year sentence. Charges were made against my family and even my secretary was not excluded. My family was left shattered…but my troubles are minor when compared to yours. I can bear it, but the country will be in ruins,” he said.

Mr Thaksin further claimed many countries had invited him to be their citizen of honour (somehow this seems most unlikely), but he felt sad because he could not return to Thailand.

“No one can make me return to the country apart from His Majesty the King’s sympathy and the power of the people,” he remarked.