Dubai announces its resurgence

31 December 2012 - The Financial Times

For the two years since it opened in the wake of a humiliating financial crisis, the New Year’s eve celebrations surrounding Dubai’s Burj Khalifa building have been fairly muted. But this year developer Emaar is putting on a huge show combining a dancing fountain, the Prague Symphony Orchestra and plenty of fireworks. The message: The emirate is back with a bang.

Three years after Dubai shocked global markets with a warning it would be unable to repay its debts on time, the emirate wants to let the world know that its slump is history and that it is now embarking on its second economic boom in a decade.

Dubai’s government is revelling in a recovery led by trade, tourism and the flight of expatriates from the violence of the Arab spring and the tax demands of European and Indian authorities.

Dubai may not be reducing its $110bn debt mountain, almost half of which matures between 2014 and 2016, but cash is flowing through the system, calming bankers’ fears about the city’s solvency.

Non-oil trade in the first 10 months of 2012 surpassed Dh1tn for the first time.

Passenger numbers through the airport are growing steadily towards 5m a month, fuelled by the fast-expanding Emirates airline, which is competing with global players as the Middle East becomes an increasingly important global transit node.

Western tourists are descending on the city to spend Christmas on the beach; early next year they will be replaced by Russians celebrating the Orthodox holiday; and later in January Chinese New Year will see a boost in the growing numbers of Asian visitors.

In response to this new-found optimism, the government has unveiled a series of grand real estate projects and some districts in the city have seen prices rise again on stronger demand from regional buyers in Saudi Arabia and India.

Nakheel, the indebted developer at the heart of Dubai’s crisis, is launching new projects to take advantage of the recovering market. The developer says house prices on its reclaimed Palm island are back at 2008 levels, not far from their peak.

“We are seeing good demand – not quite a boom, but a recovery,” says Ali Rashid Lootah, chairman of Nakheel, which completed a $16bn restructuring deal last year.

Emaar has even teamed up with Dubai Holding, a deeply indebted company owned by the ruler, Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, to launch a new city named in his honour that will house a Universal Studios theme park.

The city will include the so-called Mall of the World, a world record-beating shopping centre even larger than the massive Dubai Mall, which last year claimed to have more visitors than New York City.

“Now is the time Dubai will evolve yet again to become the world’s city,” reads the advertising slogan for Mohammed Bin Rashid City.

But beneath the hyperbole redolent of the debt-fuelled frenzy that ended in the collapse of 2008, some voices are warning that Dubai may be destined to repeat the mistakes of its recent history.

Many Nakheel customers are angry that the company is launching new projects while some of them have been paying mortgages for years on properties that are four years late.

“Yet again, it is thoroughly disappointing that a Dubai government-owned company should be launching new projects before completing existing ones, and still not delivering to homeowners what has been owed to them for years,” said homeowner Nancy Zabaneh, whose property is already more than three years late.

The new Universal Studios project is a reminder that the company was an anchor tenant of Dubailand, one of Dubai Holding’s failing projects that planned numerous theme parks and attractions in the desert outskirts of the city.

Many of these now lie half-complete or dormant on the drawing board, leaving investors stranded in the sand.

Dubai officials dismiss concerns that the city is lurching back to its pre-crisis days, when various executives close to the ruler – many of them now back in power – competed with one another to launch ever gaudier projects or buy crazier trophy assets with borrowed money.

They say their can-do attitude will save the city from the dour functionaries who because of the crisis were given the task of cleaning up corruption and restructuring failing companies.

“This city is about positivity, about allowing people to rise up,” says one senior official. “Mohammed Bin Rashid City is not one project. This is Dubai 3.0.”

Retirement age increased in Dubai

31 December 2012

For a city that depends on foreign labour this is a good move. It will also be welcomed by many people who have made Dubai their long term home.

The UAE has raised its retirement from 60 to 65, giving expatriates leave to work for a further five years, a Ministry of Labour official said last Thursday.

The move, which forms part of a widespread change in labour laws across the country, will allow expats (basically 80% plus of Dubai's population) to secure work visas up to the age of 65.

The Ministry will start accepting requests from January 1 to issue the over-60 permits. He said the same fees would apply as to permits for workers 60-and-under.

“After 65 you’re considered post-retirement, and it’s a different rate,” he said. “You’re also on a one-year visa [term] instead of a two-year.”

It is the latest in a series of work visa changes affecting the UAE’s expat population, including an announcement last week that as of January 1, labour card validity will be reduced from three years to two years.

This is not such a good move - as it increases the workload at the labour ministry and extracts yet more fees from UAE companies.

Emirates 2013 - time to speculate

28 December 2012

EK has just taken ownership of its 30th ad 31st Airbus A380; there are approximately 15 more to be delivered next year. The 777s keep arriving on a regular basis as well with some 15 77Ws dues next year.  So why isn't the network expanding as quickly as the fleet grows?

EK will be taking up to four 380s out of service at a time to fix wing crack problems for up to two months at a time in 2013. So the A380 route expansion is limited to the lower number of available machines.

It also looks like some of the 343s, and 332s will stay in service though 2013 to provide capacity. The long awaited opening of Concourse A will also help DXB and Emirates as well as improving the airport's mage. Passengers do not like buses from and to remote gates.

At the moment Ek has not made any additional new route announcements for 2013. Just Warsaw and Algiers so far. EK has announced some capacity increases on existing routes; one of EK's strengths is that it flies to many destinations at least double daily giving passengers greater flexibility of timing.

So what will be the 2013 new route announcements:

My list: Miami, Boston, Atlanta, Chicago, Brussels, Stockholm, Mexico (maybe via Madrid due to MEX's altitude), Bali, Abuja (Nigeria), Ankara (Turkey). I suspect we will see A380s to Mumbai and Bangalore sometime in 2013.

No new routes will be announced to China as China so far refuses to extend new landing rights to Emirates....this is a missed opportunity for EK with Chinese tourists flooding into Dubi and onto Europe - Chengdu. Chongqing, Kunming, Xiamen, Xian and a third daily to Beijing must all be on the EK wish list.

The Dubai Air Show is next year at its new Al Maktoum location. Symbolic for the new airport I expect Emirates will place a number of new airplane orders....including more extended range A380s. Boeing could also launch its long awaited 777X program at the show with EK placing a substantial.

Assuming all the A380 wing crack issues are solved by the end of 2013 then growth in 2014 could be significant and annoucements and planning in 2013 maybe for 2014 operations.

Construction has started on Concourse D. All airlines, with the exception of Emirates and Terminal 2 carriers, will move to Concourse D when it opens in 2014, allowing the refurbishment of Concourse C to take place. The changes in Concourse C will (formerly Terminal One) will make it a dedicated Emirates facility linked to Terminal 3.

Thunderbirds are gone

26 December 2012

Gerry Anderson, best known as the creator of Thunderbirds, has died at the age of 83. The film and television producer, whose credits also included the puppet shows Captain Scarlet and Joe 90 had suffered for several years with mixed dementia and died in his sleep, his son announced on Wednesday.

The news was announced on his son Jamie Anderson's website. He wrote: "I'm very sad to announce the death of my father, Thunderbirds creator, Gerry Anderson. He died peacefully in his sleep at midday today (26th December 2012), having suffered with mixed dementia for the past few years. He was 83."

He requested that any fans wishing to make donations in honour of his father should contribute to the Alzheimer's Society.

His website also included a tribute written by his fan club, known as Fanderson. Nick Williams, chairman of the club, said: "To those who met him Gerry was a quiet, unassuming but determined man. His desire to make the best films he could drove him and his talented teams to innovate, take risks, and do everything necessary to produce quite inspirational works. Gerry's legacy is that he inspired so many people and continues to bring so much joy to so many millions of people around the world."

Gerald Alexander Anderson – famous for the use of "Supermarionation", or the use of modified puppets – was born in 1929 in Hampstead, north London, and began his career as a film trainee at the Ministry of Information before starting work at Gainsborough Pictures. He later set up AP Films with some friends.

With commissions thin on the ground Anderson and his team were eager to produce their first puppet show The Adventures Of Twizzle. Others including Torchy The Battery Boy, and Supercar followed. Success continued with Fireball XL5 and Stingray. But it was Thunderbirds, filmed on the Slough Trading Estate in Berkshire and first broadcast in 1965 that made his name. With the catchphrase "Thunderbirds are go!", the programme revolved around International Rescue, a secret emergency service run by the Tracy family aided by London agent Lady Penelope and her butler, Parker.

In 1966, Thunderbirds was made into a major feature film for United Artists, Thunderbirds Are Go, which was followed by a sequel, Thunderbird 6.

Anderson moved towards live action productions in the 1970s, producing Space: 1999. In the 1980s, a burst of nostalgia for his Supermarionation series led to the commission of new productions, including a remake of Captain Scarlet. New Captain Scarlet, a CGI-animated reimagining of the 1967 series, premiered on ITV in the UK in 2005. He also worked as a consultant on a Hollywood remake of his 1969 series UFO, directed by Matthew Gratzner.

Anderson was a one-of-a kind film and television producer, who had far-reaching influence, according to his fan club dedication. "Anderson's unique style of filmmaking influenced the imaginations and careers of countless creatives that succeeded him, and his productions continue to be shown around the world to new generations of fans," it read.

Television presenter Jonathan Ross praised his work, tweeting: "Sad news. Gerry Anderson RIP. For men of my age his work made childhood an incredible place to be."

The producer was diagnosed with mixed dementia two years ago and his condition had deteriorated over the past six months and he had moved into a care home in October. He also worked as an ambassador for The Alzheimer's Society, to raise awareness and money for the treatment of the disease. Gerry Anderson leaves three children from former marriages, Joy, Linda and Gerry Junior, his son Jamie and widow Mary.

The NRA shames America

22 December 2012

NRA leader Wayne LaPierre made his first press conference since the Sandy Hook shooting and managed to point the finger of blame at everyone except the NRA; the tragedy was the fault of gun-free school zones, video games and Obama for the tragedy.

It was shameful. And it is even more shameful that people accept this hokum.

It was an extraordinary press event; LaPierre called for a conversation but refused to take any press questions.

Credit to protestors at the NRA event, led by CREDO Action, who carried signs that read "Stop the NRA," and tried to deliver a petition signed by some 285,000 citizens that reads: "In the wake of the massacre at Sandy Hook Elementary School, the NRA must stand down and stop blocking Congress and the President from passing gun control legislation."

Once upon a time the National Rifle Association was an organization for hunters and law enforcement officers; among its main aims was public education on the safe use of firearms. But that was decades ago, before the NRA found more lucre in its current role trade association and lobby for manufacturers of firearms and ammunition, a business sector that, these days, shows no shame in being among the nation's foremost merchants of death.

Worse still there is a natural alliance between the arms merchants and the political right. You wont hear Fox News calling for a repeal of the Second Amendment.

At the press conference, LaPierre laid down, in no uncertain terms, that a ban on assault rifles or large-capacity magazines, such as that being suggested by Sen. Dianne Feinstein, D-Calf., is unacceptable. He complained that the media "demonized" gun-owners, and claimed that a ban on particular weapons such as assault rifles would do nothing to avert future tragedies.

And his solution. Just bizarre. A program to arm school personnel called The National Shield. "The NRA is going to bring all of its knowledge, dedication and resources to develop a model National School Shield Emergency Response Program for every school that wants it," LaPierre said. "From armed security to building design and access control to information technology to student and teacher training, this multi-faceted program will be developed by the very best experts in their fields."

Let's educate our kids in fortresses with armed guards for every classroom.

Utter, utter nonsense.

Take this to its next step and we will arm every passenger on an airplane in order to thwart a hijack attempt.

Lets use guns to stop guns. LaPierre actually suggested that the only way to stop a ban guy with a gun is a good guy with a gun. How about taking away both their guns?

So this is the new America - a nation of prep-school Rambos - parents that instead of coaching their kids soccer team are patrolling the school armed with rifles.

With uncharacteristic subtlety by New Jersey Governor Chris Christie suggested that "I don't necessarily think having an armed guard outside every classroom is conducive to a positive learning environment." Exactly.

The press conference's opening promised: "This is the beginning of a serious conversation" – only to cut off the part of speaking that makes something a conversation: "We won't be taking any questions." This is the rhetoric of men who don't see other people as human beings to be won over or reasoned with, but view them as merely obstacles.

The NRA's solution to gun violence - put more guns in schools. What worries me most is that some people may actually believe that this is a solution.

Incidentally a defense of the second constitution in Forbes magazine is appalling and is why that magazine is unreadable and its owners reprehensible. The article condemns "the rights-violating, knee-jerk gun-controller who wishes to further deprive innocent, law-abiding Americans of their constitutional right to self-defense, and to bear arms" (that's me and most other sane people). The second amendment of the US constitution is archaic nonsense from 1791, the days of the wild west and muskets; the days of a lawless land. It was not written to allow public access to semi-automatic weapons.

The Second Amendment reads, "A well regulated militia, being necessary to the security of a free state, the right of the people to keep and bear arms, shall not be infringed."

The amendment reflected the founders' intent to allow for a citizen's army to stand up against tyranny. A militia. Not deranged, deadly, individuals.

Single-fire weapons are widely used for hunting, personal protection and target shooting. They may have some legitimate purpose. Assault weapons, wielded by civilians.

Assault weapons have one legitimate purpose - to deliver carnage quickly in war. Assault weapons are a threat to every man, woman and child. It is time that the American people rise up and ban them once and for all.

The Second Amendment is about a right that comes with personal and collective responsibilities. It is time to exercise that repsonsibility.

And if the NRA wants an armed guard in every schoolroom how about a teacher in every gunshop

Bangkok grand prix's dubious backers

21 December 2012

A Formula One race on the streets of Bangkok is finally a reality, as F1 CEO Bernie Ecclestone has announced that the 2015 Grand Prix calendar will include a race in the Thai capital.

Speculation about a race in Bangkok has been growing for months.

In October, governor of the Sports Authority of Thailand Kanokphand Chulakasem reportedly said that Bangkok would host a race in 2014 – but head honcho Ecclestone said in the announcement that Thai motor fans will have to wait one more year.

“They say 2014 and I say 2015. It is serious and it is good,” Ecclestone said, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Despite any confusion about the dates, Bangkok has definitely been chosen to host an F1 race and the Thai government is understood to be covering about 60% of the USD27 million (THB826 million) annual fee.

The rest of the bill will be footed by big local companies like Singha and Red Bull.

Ecclestone said that the race is backed by Chalerm Yoovidhya, one of Thailand’s richest men and a 51% shareholder of Red Bull.

Chalerm’s son Voruyuth Yoovidhya, ironically enough, is currently facing charges for killing a police officer in Bangkok in a hit-and-run accident while traveling at high speeds in a Ferrari.

Thailand recently hosted the World Fusball championship and could not complete the main stadium in time. With the government creating record levels of borrowing through its payments for rice and its first car program it does make you wonder how the F1 will, or should be financed. Lets see if the US$25 million rights fee ever gets paid up first.

EK-Qantas deal gets cautious go-ahead

20 December 2012

The Australian competition regulator has given a tentative nod of approval to Qantas’s close alliance with Emirates but knocked the airlines back on their request for a 10-year timeframe for their deal.

In a boost to the Australian airline’s fortunes, the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission today released a draft ruling proposing to allow the airlines to co-operate on passenger and freight operations across their networks.

But the regulator has proposed to limit the deal to five years because of concerns about the impact of the alliance on airline competition between Australia and New Zealand.

It warned that their main competitors, Air New Zealand and Virgin Australia, were "unlikely to sufficiently constrain the alliance in the event that the alliance decided to reduce or limit growth in capacity", resulting in rising air fares on the trans-Tasman routes.

However, the ACCC’s chairman, Rod Sims, said overall the alliance was likely to result in ‘‘material, although not substantial benefits’’ to Australian consumers.

The main benefit was an improved product and service offering by the two airlines, which included increased customer access to each others’ flights, destinations and frequent flyer programs.

But Mr Sims said the alliance was likely to result in ‘‘some public detriments’’ through its effect on competition where Qantas and Emirates had overlapping services.

Competition on many routes on which the two flew would ‘‘mitigate the public detriment" but Mr Sims said the ACCC was particularly concerned about its impact on the trans-Tasman route.

‘‘On the overlapping routes between Australia and New Zealand, the ACCC is concerned that the alliance may have an increased ability and incentive to reduce or limit growth in its capacity in order to raise airfares,’’ he said.

‘‘Therefore, the ACCC is proposing a condition to restrict the ability of the alliance in this regard.’’

As a result, the regulator has proposed to grant the alliance for five years, not the 10 years that the airlines had requested in their application.

Qantas and Emirates have guaranteed that they will not reduce combined capacity on the trans-Tasman. The pair’s market share on the route is about 40 per cent.

Qantas shares rose 1.5 cents to a six-month high of $1.465 in early trade following the ACCC's draft ruling. Investors had expected the regulator to indicate its approval of the deal.

Analysts have estimated that the deal is worth as much as $150 million in pre-tax earnings to Qantas.

The regulator will not release its final ruling until March, but the so-called draft determination gives a clear idea of the competition regulator’s position on the proposed tie-up.

Welcoming the draft ruling, the Qantas chief executive, Alan Joyce, said the airlines put a strong case to the competition regulator that outlined the benefits of the alliance.

‘‘We will now focus on responding to the issue raised by the ACCC in relation to the trans-Tasman as we move to securing final approval of this landmark partnership,’’ he said.

Aspects of the deal still needs approval from regulators in New Zealand and Singapore.

New Zealand’s Transport Minister, Gerry Brownlee, will also decide whether the two airlines can form an alliance on the trans-Tasman route.

Qantas’s revenue-sharing agreement with British Airways on the kangaroo route to Europe was also approved for five years, while Virgin Australia and Air New Zealand’s tie-up on the trans-Tasman routes has anti-trust approval for three years – two years less than the airlines had sought.

The Qantas-BA alliance will end in March, just before the Australian airline officially teams up with Emirates (provided they gain final approval from the ACCC).

75 years of open skies

18 December 2012

Dubai has had a muted celebration of 75 years of open skies aviation policy which all started when Captain Hickinbotham, the then British Political Agent in the Trucial States signed the “Dubai Commercial Air Agreement” on July 22, 1937.

The history is interesting, arguably even visionary. And it is told in part in the above video. “During the mid-1930s, His Majesty’s government had been in search of landing bases in the Trucial States for the flying boats of Imperial Airways, largely for the Empire Air Mail Scheme,” Mohammad Ahli, Director-General of the Dubai Civil Aviation Authority, said while talking about Dubai’s aviation history on Thursday to commemorate the first flight to Dubai at an event held at the La Meridien Dubai.

“The officials of His Majesty’s government approached His Highness Shaikh Saeed Bin Maktoum, then Ruler of Dubai, who maintained cordial relationship with the British Government, to secure landing permission for the flying boats.

“Shaikh Saeed had received resistance from the community against granting permission to Imperial Airways flying boats to land in the Dubai creek. Shaikh Saeed had thought otherwise. He had been confident that this decision, in addition to generating revenue for the benefit of the Emirate of Dubai and its people, would help in Dubai’s commercial activities.”

This beginning and the long journey after was not a coincidence, Ahli says.

“It is a result of the vision, foresight, courage and the commitment of the Rulers of Dubai,” he said.

Foreseeing its potential, Shaikh Saeed’s successor, His Highness Shaikh Rashid Bin Saeed Al Maktoum, the then Ruler of Dubai, commissioned the construction of Dubai International Airport in 1959. That year, the government created Dubai National Air Travel Agency (Dnata) to manage the airport and ground handling. A year later, Dubai International Airport opened for business — opening doors for a new beginning.

The Open Skies policy is of course rather creatively used in Dubai to justify the simple fact that the domestic UAE market does no support an aviation business in its own right. So the UAE calls for the liberalisation of the rules and regulations of the international aviation industry—especially commercial aviation—in order to create a free-market environment for the airline industry.

In 1985, Dubai International Airport handled only 2 million passengers, which grew to become 47 million in 2010. This year, it is projected to handle 57 million passengers — becoming the world’s third biggest gateway for international passengers.

Between 2005 and 2007, the Dubai government made two significant announcements. The first one was to develop the world’s largest greenfield airport — Al Maktoum International — with a future capacity to handle 160 million passengers annually, and the launch of flydubai — a budget airline for Dubai. By 2009, flydubai started to carry passengers while Al Maktoum started operating freighter services in 2010.

According to a latest report by the Oxford Business Group (which of course was commissioned by Emirates), the aviation sector contributes $22 billion (Dh80.7 billion) — or 28 per cent to Dubai’s economy.

Dubai International is now poised to overtake both Charles de Gaulle and Heathrow in the next few years, to become the world’s biggest international passenger hub. There is no domestic traffic. The whole business model is about moving people from A to C via B - in this case Dubai.

Defining moments

17 December 2012

President Obama’s presidency could be defined by the action he takes, or the inaction he accepts, following the Newtown shooting.

This is his outstanding and heartfelt speech at last night's multi-faith prayer vigil for the victims of the shooting at Sandy Hook Elementary School in Newtown, Conn.

Obama's speech is 18-and-a-half minutes long. Watch it. It may be Obama's most powerful speech, despite the many grand occasions he has had to speak in the past and despite the relative modesty of this one.

It was Obama at his best, yet somehow better than his best: it was a more clipped, spare speech than his usual rhetorical style. And its point was more blunt than usual:

"Can we say that we're truly doing enough to give all the children of this country the chance they deserve to live out their lives in happiness and with purpose?

I've been reflecting on this the last few days, and if we're honest with ourselves, the answer's no. We're not doing enough. And we will have to change."

Obama obviously didn't want to overtly politicise an event such as this. But perhaps he was stung by Michael Bloomberg's taunt made earlier in the day, that he could not just be "consoler-in-chief". In this address, Obama managed to do both, which takes some doing.

The Governor's of Texas and Florida are shamefully silent - but there may just be enough cross-party momentum to do good. There has to be.

 

OBAMA: Thank you, Governor. To all the families, first responders, to the community of Newtown, clergy, guests, scripture tells us, “Do not lose heart. Though outwardly we are wasting away, inwardly, we are being renewed day by day.

“For light and momentary troubles are achieving for us an eternal glory that far outweighs them all, so we fix our eyes not on what is seen, but on what is unseen, since what is seen is temporary, but what is unseen is eternal.

“For we know that if the earthly tent we live in is destroyed, we have a building from God, an eternal house in heaven not built by human hands.”

We gather here in memory of 20 beautiful children and six remarkable adults. They lost their lives in a school that could have been any school in a quiet town full of good and decent people that could be any town in America.

Here in Newtown, I come to offer the love and prayers of a nation. I am very mindful that mere words cannot match the depths of your sorrow, nor can they heal your wounded hearts.

I can only hope it helps for you to know that you’re not alone in your grief, that our world, too, has been torn apart, that all across this land of ours, we have wept with you. We’ve pulled our children tight.

And you must know that whatever measure of comfort we can provide, we will provide. Whatever portion of sadness that we can share with you to ease this heavy load, we will gladly bear it. Newtown, you are not alone.

As these difficult days have unfolded, you’ve also inspired us with stories of strength and resolve and sacrifice. We know that when danger arrived in the halls of Sandy Hook Elementary, the school’s staff did not flinch. They did not hesitate.

Dawn Hocksprung and Mary Sherlach, Vicki Soto, Lauren Russeau, Rachel Davino and Anne Marie Murphy, they responded as we all hope we might respond in such terrifying circumstances, with courage and with love, giving their lives to protect the children in their care.

We know that there were other teachers who barricaded themselves inside classrooms and kept steady through it all and reassured their students by saying, “Wait for the good guys, they are coming. Show me your smile.”

And we know that good guys came, the first responders who raced to the scene helping to guide those in harm’s way to safety and comfort those in need, holding at bay their own shock and their own trauma, because they had a job to do and others needed them more.

And then there were the scenes of the schoolchildren helping one another, holding each other, dutifully following instructions in the way that young children sometimes do, one child even trying to encourage a grownup by saying, “I know karate, so it’s OK; I’ll lead the way out.”

As a community, you’ve inspired us, Newtown. In the face of indescribable violence, in the face of unconscionable evil, you’ve looked out for each other. You’ve cared for one another. And you’ve loved one another. This is how Newtown will be remembered, and with time and God’s grace, that love will see you through.

But we as a nation, we are left with some hard questions. You know, someone once described the joy and anxiety of parenthood as the equivalent of having your heart outside of your body all the time, walking around.

With their very first cry, this most precious, vital part of ourselves, our child, is suddenly exposed to the world, to possible mishap or malice, and every parent knows there’s nothing we will not do to shield our children from harm. And yet we also know that with that child’s very first step and each step after that, they are separating from us, that we won’t -- that we can’t always be there for them.

They will suffer sickness and setbacks and broken hearts and disappointments, and we learn that our most important job is to give them what they need to become self-reliant and capable and resilient, ready to face the world without fear. And we know we can’t do this by ourselves.

It comes as a shock at a certain point where you realize no matter how much you love these kids, you can’t do it by yourself, that this job of keeping our children safe and teaching them well is something we can only do together, with the help of friends and neighbors, the help of a community and the help of a nation.

And in that way we come to realize that we bear responsibility for every child, because we’re counting on everybody else to help look after ours, that we’re all parents, that they are all our children.

This is our first task, caring for our children. It’s our first job. If we don’t get that right, we don’t get anything right. That’s how, as a society, we will be judged.

And by that measure, can we truly say, as a nation, that we’re meeting our obligations?

Can we honestly say that we’re doing enough to keep our children, all of them, safe from harm?

Can we claim, as a nation, that we’re all together there, letting them know they are loved and teaching them to love in return?

Can we say that we’re truly doing enough to give all the children of this country the chance they deserve to live out their lives in happiness and with purpose?

I’ve been reflecting on this the last few days, and if we’re honest with ourselves, the answer’s no. We’re not doing enough. And we will have to change. Since I’ve been president, this is the fourth time we have come together to comfort a grieving community torn apart by mass shootings, fourth time we’ve hugged survivors, the fourth time we’ve consoled the families of victims.

And in between, there have been an endless series of deadly shootings across the country, almost daily reports of victims, many of them children, in small towns and in big cities all across America, victims whose -- much of the time their only fault was being at the wrong place at the wrong time.

We can’t tolerate this anymore. These tragedies must end. And to end them, we must change.

We will be told that the causes of such violence are complex, and that is true. No single law, no set of laws can eliminate evil from the world or prevent every senseless act of violence in our society, but that can’t be an excuse for inaction. Surely we can do better than this.

If there’s even one step we can take to save another child or another parent or another town from the grief that’s visited Tucson and Aurora and Oak Creek and Newtown and communities from Columbine to Blacksburg before that, then surely we have an obligation to try.

In the coming weeks, I’ll use whatever power this office holds to engage my fellow citizens, from law enforcement, to mental health professionals, to parents and educators, in an effort aimed at preventing more tragedies like this, because what choice do we have? We can’t accept events like this as routine.

Are we really prepared to say that we’re powerless in the face of such carnage, that the politics are too hard?

Are we prepared to say that such violence visited on our children year after year after year is somehow the price of our freedom?

You know, all the world’s religions, so many of them represented here today, start with a simple question.

Why are we here? What gives our life meaning? What gives our acts purpose?

We know our time on this Earth is fleeting. We know that we will each have our share of pleasure and pain, that even after we chase after some earthly goal, whether it’s wealth or power or fame or just simple comfort, we will, in some fashion, fall short of what we had hoped. We know that, no matter how good our intentions, we’ll all stumble sometimes in some way.

We’ll make mistakes, we’ll experience hardships and even when we’re trying to do the right thing, we know that much of our time will be spent groping through the darkness, so often unable to discern God’s heavenly plans.

There’s only one thing we can be sure of, and that is the love that we have for our children, for our families, for each other. The warmth of a small child’s embrace, that is true.

The memories we have of them, the joy that they bring, the wonder we see through their eyes, that fierce and boundless love we feel for them, a love that takes us out of ourselves and binds us to something larger, we know that’s what matters.

We know we’re always doing right when we’re taking care of them, when we’re teaching them well, when we’re showing acts of kindness. We don’t go wrong when we do that.

That’s what we can be sure of, and that’s what you, the people of Newtown, have reminded us. That’s how you’ve inspired us. You remind us what matters. And that’s what should drive us forward in everything we do for as long as God sees fit to keep us on this Earth.

“Let the little children come to me,” Jesus said, “and do not hinder them, for to such belongs the kingdom of heaven.”

Charlotte, Daniel, Olivia, Josephine, Ana, Dylan, Madeline, Catherine, Chase, Jesse, James, Grace, Emilie, Jack, Noah, Caroline, Jessica, Benjamin, Avielle, Allison, God has called them all home.

For those of us who remain, let us find the strength to carry on and make our country worthy of their memory. May God bless and keep those we’ve lost in His heavenly place. May He grace those we still have with His holy comfort, and may He bless and watch over this community and the United States of America.

There are more details of this awful crime here. A Methodical Massacre: Horror And Heroics

America’s drone war is out of control

15 December 2012 Financial Times - Gideon Rachman

What is worse? Locking somebody up for years, without trial, while you try to find proof he is a terrorist? Or killing somebody whose name you don’t even know because his pattern of behaviour suggests to you that he is a terrorist? The first strategy, internment without trial at the Guantánamo Bay prison camp, was a signature policy of the George W. Bush administration. The use of drone strikes to kill suspected terrorists has become a trademark of the Obama administration. Yet while Guantánamo attracted worldwide condemnation, the use of drones is much less discussed.

It is hard to avoid the impression that Barack Obama is forgiven for a remarkably ruthless antiterrorism policy simply because his public image is so positive. He won the Nobel Peace Prize for goodness sake!

Yet President Obama’s free pass on drones may be running out. America’s expansion of this secretive programme is finally attracting legitimate criticism and concern – and not just from the usual civil-liberties types. Kurt Volker, a former US ambassador to Nato for George W. Bush, asked recently in The Washington Post: “What do we want to be as a nation? A country with a permanent kill list? ... A country that instructs workers in some high-tech operations centre to kill human beings on the far side of the planet because some government agency determined that those individuals are terrorists?”

Mr Volker’s diatribe reflects the moral uneasiness that many feel at the remote, computer-game-like quality of drone warfare. But, while drone strikes may make killing too easy and tempting, the remoteness of the method is probably the least coherent objection to the campaign. Most countries would be delighted to find a way of minimising casualties among their own troops. And civilian deaths or mass casualties are just as likely to be caused by the methods of conventional warfare – such as a piloted aircraft or an artillery shell.

The more serious objection to drones is that they have blurred the line between war and assassination. Somebody suspected of plotting a terrorist attack on the soil of the US or the UK would be subject to arrest and prosecution. But if the suspects are in the tribal areas of Pakistan, they can simply be blown away.

While most strikes have been undertaken by the US military in recognised theatres of war, such as Afghanistan or Iraq, there is also a large covert programme of drone attacks in Pakistan, Yemen and Somalia run by the CIA. Some are aimed at known terrorist suspects, such as Anwar al-Awlaki, a radical Islamist with a US passport, who was killed in Yemen. Others are so-called “signature strikes”, in which unnamed suspects are targeted, based on their pattern of behaviour.

America argues that even signature strikes are precisely targeted and that civilian casualties are minimal. But that is disputed. A recent study by Stanford and New York University law schools endorsed the claim that between 474 and 881 civilians, including almost 200 children, have been killed by drone strikes in Pakistan. One case – in which a meeting of tribal elders called to discuss a mining dispute was hit, killing 42 people – is now the subject of legal action in Pakistan and Britain. (The British are accused of providing intelligence to the US.)

The Obama administration’s legal justification for these strikes depends on a literal reading of the phrase “war on terror”. In a war, it is routine to attack concentrations of enemy forces. Thus, it is argued, is legitimate to attack al-Qaeda forces in Pakistan. Yet many lawyers regard this argument as something of a stretch. No war has been declared in Pakistan and the campaign is being conducted covertly, by an intelligence agency – not by the US military. The legal basis for drone strikes looks even more tenuous when they are conducted in Somalia, thousands of miles away from the battlefields of Afghanistan.

The niceties of international law are probably of little concern to many citizens, who are happy to be protected from terrorism and to zap “bad guys”. But the precedents set could come back to haunt the US and its allies.

During the presidential election campaign, this thought began to worry some members of the Obama foreign policy team. One recalls that “we realised that if we lost, we would be handing over an industrial strength killing machine to Mitt Romney”. Yet efforts led by the state department to introduce more rules and transparency to the drones campaign were effectively pushed back by the CIA and the Pentagon.

Now that Mr Obama has been re-elected, it seems more likely that the drones campaign will be expanded rather than reined in. But the precedents set should still worry the US. Many countries – from Turkey to Russia and China – claim to be waging a war on terrorism. What if some of them follow the example set by America and decide to start eliminating enemies on foreign soil through the use of drone strikes? The technology involved is not hugely expensive or hard to master.

To make the spread of drone warfare less likely – and to prevent abuses in America’s own programme – drones need to be reclaimed from the realm of covert warfare. The CIA may relish its conversion into a paramilitary force. But wars should be fought by the military and openly scrutinised by politicians and the press. Anything else is just too dangerous for a free society and for international order.

Newtown shootings: if not now, when is the time to talk about gun control?

15 December 2012 The Guardian - Gary Younge

Friday's mass shooting at Sandy Hook school in Newtown, Connecticut is shocking and horrifying – the time and the place of these massacres inevitably catch us unawares. But the fact that another mass shooting has occurred is not shocking, any more than the last one was, or the next one will be.

Just as with the mass killings earlier this year at a Sikh temple in Wisconsin and the Aurora movie theater, near Denver, Colorado, the chorus of empathetic responses that will follow these tragic shootings in Newtown, Connecticut marks a stubborn refrain in a perennial American elegy. Different singers mouthing different words, but basically singing the same song.

Psychological profiles of the shooter emerge, along with portraits of the victims, while the political class closes ranks so that the nation can heal. Incanted tones to sooth a permanent scar.

All rituals serve a purpose. And this one is no different.

This Friday, 28 people are currently reported shot dead, including 20 children. Their families must be given space to mourn, and that space should be respected.

But it does not honour the dead to insist that there must be no room in that space for rational thought and critical appraisal. Indeed, such situations demand both. For one can only account for so many "isolated" incidents before it becomes necessary to start dealing with a pattern.

It is simply not plausible to understand events in Connecticut this Friday without having a conversation about guns in a country where more than 84 people a day are killed with guns, and more than twice that number are injured with them.

Amid all the column inches and airtime now being devoted to these horrific slayings, though, that elephant in the room will remain affectionately patted, discreetly fed and politely indulged. To claim that "this is not the time" ignores the reality that America has found itself incapable of finding any appropriate time to have this urgent conversation. The victims in Newtown, Connecticut deserve at least that. And these tragedies take place everyday, albeit on a smaller scale.

America's president, Barack Obama, understands this. The number of homicide victims in his home town of Chicago this year has outnumbered the fatalities among US troops serving in Kabul.

In response to the Aurora shootings in July, President Obama was right to suspend the routine campaign rhetoric and play the statesman. Nobody wanted to hear about Mitt Romney's tax records and stimulating the economy on that day. There were other days for electioneering, true, but he was wrong to insist on this:

"There are going to be other days for politics. This is a day for prayer and reflection."

Yet that "other day" for debating gun laws never came – not at any point in the three months that remained before the election. Even now, right on cue, the president's spokesman, Jay Carney, has intoned the familiar strain that "now is not the time" to talk about gun control.

For what are we to reflect on if not how this, and so many other similar calamities, came about. Those who insist that we should not "play politics" with the victim's grief conveniently ignore that politics is what caused that grief. Not party politics. But a blend of opportunism on the right that flagrantly mischaracterises the issue, and spinelessness on the left that refuses to address it.

Americans are no more prone to mental illness or violence than any other people in the world. What they do have is more guns: roughly, 90 for every 100 people. And regions and states with higher rates of gun ownership have significantly higher rates of homicide than states with lower rates of gun ownership.

The trite insistence that "guns don't kill people, people kill people" simply avoids the reality that people can kill people much more easily with guns than anything else that's accessible. Americans understand this. That's why a plurality supports greater gun control, and a majority thinks the sale of firearms should be more tightly regulated.

The trouble is that people feel powerless to do anything about it. The gun lobby has proved sufficiently potent in rallying opposition to virtually all gun control measures that Democrats have all but given up on arguing for it. In the meantime, the country is literally and metaphorically dying for it.

Gun control is possible. There are both a constituency for it and an argument for it. But it can't happen without a political coalition prepared to fight for it.

If America can twice elect a black president, it can do this.

Missing in BKK - Thai Air Asia

13 December 2012

The only evidence that you will see of Thai Air Asia at Bangkok's international airport is a few advertisements and the airline name emblazened on luggage trolleys.

The airplanes are missing.

They have all moved to Don Muang; the old airport in the north of the city; about 90 minutes transit from BKK's main international gateway.

Now if you are traveling domestically or from nearby Asian destinations then maybe this does not matter. But if you are coming from Europe, Australia or the Middle East to Thailand and want to travel beyond Bangkok - then guess what - your only choice or onward travel at BKK is Thai Airways or its lower cost subsidiary Thai Smile. Similarly if you are flying from say Chiang Mai to Europe - Thai Air Asia is really not an option now.

The trouble is that long haul arrivals into BKK do not even see an Air Asia airplane - out of sight is out of mind. No one will sensibly connect between Bangkok's airports. One rainstorm could turn an already long journey into a traffic nightmare.

This is great for government owned Thai Airways but can only be damaging Thai Air Asia. The other beneficiary is Bangkok Airways which has been allowed to remain at Don Muang.

The intention was that all the LCCs would move to Don Muang; this clearly does not apply to Thai Smile which is rapidly acquiring airplanes and appears intent on building a network that will match Thai Air Asia.

 I have no idea what financial incentives were given to TAA to move to Don Muang - I also do not know what if any impact that move has had on the load factor. But it has taken an important market from TAA.

Shouting out

12 December 2012

I probably upset an old friend today after I was asked to have a look at @shouttravel on twitter...this turned into not such a good idea.

Setting up a twitter account that has a link to a website saying "coming soon" appears to me to be a complete waste of time. Twitter is all about immediacy...it is not about waiting.

My analogy was that it is like announcing you are pregnant before your have tried to conceive. @shouttravel does not seem to think that this a concern and argued in its defence that Scoot Airlines had many followers on twitter and facebook before their web site was launched. True enough, except that everyone already knew that Scoot was set up as a new long haul LCC subsidiary of Singapore Airlines; it was not exactly short of advance media publicity. Who is @shouttravel - no idea?. What do they do - no idea? The comparison to Scoot simple smacks of either wishful thinking or arrogance.

It would probably have been easier if @shouttravel had suggested that I just wait and see what was coming soon but he/she/they decided that I was being grouchy - clearly my problem and not theirs. Not at all. I was told to look at something; I did; I responded; and they have lost a potential customer (or maybe even a little goodwill from this site for what little that may be worth) before they even get their business started.

I do dislike people who hide behind anonymity on twitter - using a company name or a new identity; social media is meant to help build a business; I have no idea if it was my friend who was replying as @shouttravel or whether he is simply connected with the business. If the former then it was a disappointing response from someone that I used to work closely with; if the latter then the people backing the business need to have a serious look at their social media strategy and how they interact online.

Just one small addition - I really don't like the name in the context of social media - no one likes shouting (using capitals for emphasis) online.

Speculators backing Dubai - no one should think this is good news

12 December 2012 - Reuters

The average apartment price in Dubai rose by 13 percent this year and is expected to grow at the same rate next year as speculative buyers prop up demand, a study released on Sunday showed.

Prices rose despite expectations of around 36,000 new units forecast to enter the market in the next two years, a study by property consultancy CBRE showed.

"Because the best quality products (properties) are seeing this demand, they are raising the rest of the market," said Matthew Green, head of research & consultancy UAE at CBRE Middle East.

Dubai's residential property prices have slumped by over 60 percent since its peak prior to the financial crisis. Off-plan purchases and speculation had created a real estate bubble that burst after the economic slowdown in 2008.

However, the emirate has recently begun to announce big projects similar to those built during the boom period.

The latest announcement was in November by Dubai's ruler Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid al-Maktoum, who revealed plans to build a complex including 100 hotels and the world's biggest shopping mall.

Only one-fifth of sales this year were through mortgages, as banks remain reluctant to lend, indicating that some speculative buying by investors has returned.

"Only 20 percent of the sales were through mortgages. So there is some speculation creeping back into the market. We also saw some off plan announcements and we have to keep a watch on this," said Green.

A majority of the new supply is expected from secondary locations like Dubailand, Motor City and Dubai Sports City.

Meanwhile, rental prices in the emirate, home to the world's tallest tower, rose by an average of 17 percent over the past 12 months, said the report.

The study attributed the rise in rents to the sustained period of population growth, positive economic performance, increased occupier demand, and limited availability of quality units in the desirable locations.

Office space in the emirate is 47 percent vacant and this figure is expected to rise to close to 50 percent by 2014, said the report.

"Occupiers are going for the best areas while the rest of it is fairly vacant," said Green.

He said only about 20 percent of the office supply in the market is good quality.

"There is about 2 million metres coming into the market by 2015 but not all of that is attractive."

In the hospitality sector, an additional 14,000 hotel rooms are expected to enter the market over the next three years.

Provocative Wealth

11 December 2012

Some stories are too depressing. This is a tale of wealth, Hummers and hunting.

At a time when wise leaders in the region and globally are being less than ostentatious with their wealth this may be sending a less than wise message.

Arabian Business reports that an AED2m (US$544,500) Hummer, the brainchild of a UAE royal and equipped with sound detectors and a drone for tracking hunting animals, is set to be the star attraction at an upcoming Dubai exhibition, organisers have revealed.

The Hummer, customised by Miami-based specialist dealers the Parker Brothers and the brainchild of Fujairah Crown Prince HH Sheikh Mohammed bin Hamad Al Sharqi, will make its world debut at Dubai’s Big Boys Toys next month.

“For this year it is brilliant. We have a hunting vehicle....it is a Hummer, completely outfitted. It changes its colour based on the terrain,” Biju Jayaraaj, CEO of exhibition organiser Artaaj told Arabian Business.

“It has a sound detector that can detect the sound of any animal in a 300m radius. And, wait for it, it has a drone that flies in a 2km radius that transmits images of animals so you can choose the area you want to hunt or move on,” he added.

The exhibition will run at the Atlantis, The Palm, from January 31 to February 2 with around 100 exhibitors. Other new attractions include luxury bespoke car keys, two new car models, a motorbike inspired by a model used in the movie ‘Tron: Legacy’ and a 24-carat gold water bottle.

Has Dubai/the UAE learned any real lessons in the last 4 years. Maybe not. We are quickly moving back to the "if you have it flaunt it" era; and that has all the risks of another future crisis.

If you build it will they come?

10 December 2012

Dubai’s Emaar Properties and Dubai Holding have unveiled the first project as part of their joint venture launched last month, the Mohammed Bin Rashid City (MBR City), it was announced on Sunday.

Dubai ruler Sheikh Mohammad Bin Rashid Al Maktoum announced plans to build a new multi-billion dollar city project, which will include the world's biggest shopping mall, a Universal family theme park and a park that is a third bigger than Hyde Park in London.

Dubai Hills will be the first residential project within MBR City and will consist of a gated community with luxury residences similar Emaar’s existing Emirates Hills development.

The homes will be built around a new 18-hole championship golf course and will include plots of 20,000 to 30,000 sq ft.

“With demand for premium homes in the city increasing, led by Dubai’s status as the region’s business and lifestyle hub, Dubai Hills is set to be the first choice for the discerning property investors,” said Ahmad Al Matrooshi, Managing Director, Emaar Properties.

The site for the new project will be located between Emirates Road and Al Khail Road and will also include parks, retail centres, schools and healthcare facilities.

No value has been given for the entire MBR City project which will comprise four key components.

The first component will focus on family tourism, and will include a giant park, equipped to receive 35 million visitors and a family entertainment centre set up in collaboration with Universal Studios and hotel facilities.

The second component, focusing on retail, will feature the largest shopping mall in the world called Mall of the World. Dubai already boasts the largest mall in the world, Emaar's The Dubai Mall.

A third component will include the largest area for arts galleries in Middle East and North Africa while the fourth fourth component will see the development of facilities to provide "an integrated environment for entrepreneurship and innovation in the region".

One problem - the Jumeirah Hills Golf Estate is still not finished and most of the villas are incomplete and unoccupied. The same for the Els Club. And lets not mention the aborted Tiger Woods project.

Schwartzel takes Thai Golf Championship

9 December 2012

Charl Schwartzel will be celebrating tonight. The South Africa won by a stunning 11shots at the US$1 million Thailand Golf Championship on Sunday to end a frustrating 20-month title drought since winning the 2011 Masters Tournament.

The 28-year-old Schwartzel completed an imperious start-to-finish victory at Amata Spring Country Club with a final round of seven-under-par 65. Schwartzel’s winning total of 25-under-par 263 total saw him pick up his ninth career victory and first on the Asian Tour. He won US$158,500.

Thai youngster Thitiphun Chuayprakong shot a closing 70 finish tied second with reigning Masters champion Bubba Watson, who closed with a superb 65 for a 14-under-par 274 aggregate.

Spaniard Sergio Garcia came in fourth after a 70, followed by Korea’s Park Hyun-bin, whose fifth place performance following a 68 earned him his Asian Tour card for 2013.

“It’s been a great week. We had such a good time last year and obviously I came in second. I do know how the guys feel like as I had the same feeling last year when I lost to Lee by quite a margin. I played some solid golf. I’m very happy,” said Schwartzel, whose 11-shot winning margin was the third highest on the Asian Tour.

Such was his great form that the South African dropped only one bogey all week, at the ninth hole on Saturday. Leading by five overnight, he did not allow his rivals to get close to him as he turned in 32 for a 10-shot advantage before easing home with three more birdies on the back nine in front of large galleries. After saving par from six feet at the last hole, Schwartzel raised both arms in jubilation and relief.

The 20-year-old Thitiphun held his head high against the stars of the game after enjoying his best Asian Tour finish yet alongside Watson, earning US$84,750. He fired an eagle, three birdies and three bogeys playing in the last group for the second straight day.

Playing with Schwartzel will have been a great lesson for the young Thai golfer.

Next week is the Iskandar Johor Open, the Asian Tour’s season-finale in Malaysia next week.

Scores after the final round of the Thailand Golf Championship:

263 - Charl SCHWARTZEL (RSA) 65-65-68-65.
274 - Bubba WATSON (USA) 68-70-71-65, Thitiphun CHUAYPRAKONG (THA) 66-67-71-70.
276 - Sergio GARCIA (ESP) 69-69-68-70.
277 - PARK Hyun-bin (KOR) 68-74-67-68.
278 - Kiradech APHIBARNRAT (THA) 68-71-72-67, Prom MEESAWAT (THA) 69-72-70-67, Simon DYSON (ENG) 72-71-67-68, Scott HEND (AUS) 70-68-69-71, Daniel CHOPRA (SWE) 67-67-69-75.
279 - Jonathan MOORE (USA) 73-72-67-67, Chapchai NIRAT (THA) 70-73-67-69, Ryo ISHIKAWA (JPN) 70-66-73-70, Lee WESTWOOD (ENG) 70-69-70-70.
280 - Anirban LAHIRI (IND) 70-69-70-71, Nicolas COLSAERTS (BEL) 72-67-70-71.
281 - Kalle SAMOOJA (FIN) 71-72-72-66, Yoshinobu TSUKADA (JPN) 70-72-72-67, Thongchai JAIDEE (THA) 69-71-72-69, Darren BECK (AUS) 69-70-72-70.
282 - Shiv KAPUR (IND) 73-71-72-66.

Whatever happened to Thaksin?

7 December 2012 - The Economist

On December 5th the ailing King Bhumibol celebrated his 85th birthday. For Thais it was an opportunity to pay homage to a revered man and institution. But for the second most famous Thai of all, Thaksin Shinawatra, it marked another milestone in an increasingly long exile. The multimillionaire businessman and former prime minister, ousted in a coup in 2006 and a fugitive from justice since 2008, had confidently predicted that he would be back home by the time of last year’s royal birthday. He missed that date, and now another year has passed. What he once regarded as a temporary inconvenience has taken on an air of semi-permanency.

That has not been for want of trying to secure a return. Since his younger sister, Yingluck, led their Pheu Thai party to a thumping win in the general election in July 2011, the government has explored just about every avenue to get Mr Thaksin back without having to serve the two-year jail term for corruption to which he was sentenced four years ago. Legislative attempts to revoke the charges, which he maintains were politically motivated, have got nowhere, as have attempts to win a royal pardon. Proposals for a general amnesty for all those involved in the political confrontations after 2006 have run into a constitutional brick wall.

And so, well into Ms Yingluck’s term, the legal position remains pretty much as it was. If anything, Mr Thaksin’s position has worsened recently. The government managed to reissue a Thai passport for him that had been cancelled in 2008 after he skipped bail. But the ombudsman’s office is now trying to reverse that decision. And on October 11th the Supreme Court ordered a warrant for Mr Thaksin’s arrest in a separate case relating to the state-run Krung Thai bank. Here Mr Thaksin faces charges that include abuse of power and the violation of banking laws.

Not only has the ceaseless plotting on Mr Thaksin’s behalf proved fruitless, it has also been damaging to the government of his sister. During her election campaign, Ms Yingluck promised “unity and reconciliation”, a sensible attempt to woo voters who were tired of continuous clashes between Mr Thaksin’s “red shirt” supporters and his “yellow shirt” opponents. But the blatant efforts to rewrite the law and tamper with the constitution chiefly for Mr Thaksin’s benefit have undermined that promise and inflamed his old adversaries. Abhisit Vejjajiva, leader of the main opposition Democratic Party and the previous prime minister, has fought against every manoeuvre to let Mr Thaksin come back a free man. “Their interest is only in Thaksin”, says Mr Abhisit, referring to the Pheu Thai government, “and not in justice and reconciliation”.

More worrying for Thailand, the machinations threaten to bring back the street politics and violence that darkened the country following the coup against Mr Thaksin. On November 24th 10,000-odd supporters of a new movement called Pitak Siam (meaning Protect Thailand) staged a protest in the government district in Bangkok and had to be dispersed by police firing tear gas. Led by a retired army general, Boonlert Kaewprasit, an implacable foe of Mr Thaksin’s, Pitak Siam has called for the overthrow of Ms Yingluck’s government. The demonstration was readily contained, but it is menacing that the general was able to mobilise so many former yellow shirts for his cause.

Mr Thaksin is still as talismanic as ever to his red-shirt supporters. Those in the Pheu Thai party continue to insist that he has suffered an enormous injustice. However, wiser heads in the party counsel that the rush to get him home has backfired, helping his enemies. A longer, more subtle game, they say, is needed.

People in this camp argue that Mr Thaksin, surrounded by yes-men, is poorly advised. He remains a highly divisive figure, and his people were too optimistic about his level of support in the country. Particularly ill-judged was the attempt in May to pass a reconciliation bill that would have given Mr Thaksin and others an amnesty at the same time as trying to pass constitutional amendments. It aroused enormous hostility in parliament, even among some Pheu Thai MPs. So great was the furore that at one point the army had publicly to deny that it was thinking of reverting to the bad old days and plotting a coup.

Eventually Ms Yingluck backed off, worried about the stability of her government. Some argue that this was the moment when she at last exerted herself against her brother. Since then she has certainly developed more self-confidence as a leader in her own right, and she probably will not be rushed into hasty legislative gambles again.

In the long run constitutional changes, such as greater decentralisation of power coupled with more democratisation, would help to bring on deeper changes in Thailand’s body politic that the red shirts want. That would help Mr Thaksin’s cause. But it does not offer him much hope of an early return. Mr Thaksin and his fans will have to learn the virtues of patience.

In praise of Alastair Cook

6 December 2012

When people are called on to name the greatest English test batsman the usual list includes Hobbs, Hammond, Cowdrey, Boycott.

But as of today the Englishman with the record number of test centuries is the current England captain, Alastair Cook. And he is still only 27 (28 on Christmas Day).

He has now scored centuries in each of his five tests as England captain.

Cook is now the most successful batsman in the history of the English Test team. What an extraordinary player this man is. The last English man to get to 22 test centuries was Walter Hammond and that was in the 1940s. None of Hutton, Compton, May, Cowdrey, Barrington, Dexter, Graveney, Gooch, Boycott, Vaughan or Strauss got past Hammond's landmark. Pieterson is on 22 tests and the race to accumulate more test centuries should be very good news for English cricket.

Why did this record stand for so long :Boycott stepped down for three years angry at being passed over as captain, Gooch was banned for three years for playing on an illegal pro-apartheid tour (he should have been banned for the rest of his career), Barrington retired because he had a minor heart attack, Hutton and Compton lost years to the war, May simply got bored and gave up, Vaughan's knees gave out, Strauss's spirit gave out, Atherton's back gave out, Stewart had to wear the 'keeper's gloves... it almost feels like a jinx.

The leading English centurions are:

Alastair Cook – 23 centuries in 86 matches
Wally Hammond – 22 centuries in 85 matches
Kevin Pietersen – 22 centuries in 90 matches (yet to bat in 91st Test)
Geoffrey Boycott – 22 centuries in 108 matches
Colin Cowdrey – 22 centuries in 114 matches
Andrew Strauss – 21 centuries in 100 matches

When Cook tied the previous record of 22 Test centuries he did so in 85 matches, which is exactly as many as Hammond had, but fewer than Cowdrey and Boycott. It is not a case taht there is more test cricket; but there is a lot more cricket due to the one day and 20/20 games.

Which shows just how determined Cook is. He loves to bat. And his best may still be ahead of him

Cook is also the youngest batsman of any nationality to reach 7000 test runs beating Sachin Tendulkar.

Business aviation moving to Al Maktoum in 2013

5 December 2012

This web site has long advocated a move of all business/executive flights to Al Maktoum to free up slots at DXB.

Now the authorities appear ready to make the move with an announcement that Dubai’s Al Maktoum International Airport (AMIA) will become the emirate’s main business aviation hub from 2013.

A press briefing by Rashed Bu Qara’a, chief operating officer at Dubai Aviation City Corporation said that "this is part of the long-term migration strategy of shifting general aviation from Dubai International Airport to Al Maktoum International Airport. During this initial phase, we will utilise the VIP terminal within the passenger terminal."

In the year to date, total aircraft movements at AMIA rose from 5,403 in 2011 to 11,571 during the same period in 2012 - an increase of 114 percent, DWC said in November.

That is still only about 30 movements a day. This is a severely underused, under-developed facility.

Dubai Airports’ CEO Paul Griffiths told Arabian Business in an interview in March full commercial operations were likely to stay at Dubai International for the foreseeable future.

“The original [plan] was to have some capacity online for 2017, we’ve pushed that back by about ten years... something around [2027],” he said.

Al Maktoum has built a small passenger terminal. There are no airbridges. It is basically a low cost terminal for low cost airlines. "The passenger terminal is ready to go and has been tested. A decision or announcement of the exact date will be made very soon,” said Khalifa Al Zaffin, executive chairman of DACC.

AMIA will host the Middle East Business Aviation (MEBA) from December 11 to 13. Ali Al Naqbi, founding chairman of the Middle East Business Aviation Association, said the number of attendees is forecast to increase from 6,200 in 2011 to 7,500 this year.

The number of exhibitors is set to grow from 338 from 33 countries in 2011 to 385 exhibitors from around 40 countries this year, while the number of aircraft on show will rise to 55.

Dubai to launch 2024 Olympics Bid

5 December 2012

 Dubai will bid for the 2024 Summer Olympics as soon as an expected go-ahead from the Government comes through, a top official of the UAE National Olympic Committee said yesterday.

"Our bidding has started already," Abdulrahman Falaknaz, the NOC finance director, told The National.

"The UAE has the infrastructure, capability, manpower and know-how to host such events. There is pressure on cities when they host huge events like the Olympics, but Dubai and the UAE can take it.

"I can assure you that our bid will be a comprehensive and winning bid" he rather optimistically added.

While I foresee problems with a summer Olympics in the Dubai heat a Dubai Olympics would be history-making; no city from the Middle East or the Muslim world, as yet, has hosted the event.

Falaknaz revealed that representatives from Dubai have been consulting senior figures from past host cities of the biggest event in sports.

"We have been talking to Olympic cities like Sydney, Beijing and London, which we had a very close relationship with," he said. "Everybody has to learn all the time, and we are learning."

Despite initial interest, Dubai did not enter the bidding for the 2020 Olympics; the winner will come from a shortlist of just three cities, Istanbul, Tokyo and Madrid, and will be announced by the International Olympic Committee in September 2013.

The 2016 Olympics will be held in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

Bidding for 2024 will start in 2015, with the winners announced by the IOC in 2017.

Eighteen cities are thought to be preparing a bid for 2024, including Paris, Berlin, Rome, St Petersburg, Toronto, Guadalajara, Dallas, Los Angeles, Nairobi, Casablanca, Durban and Taipei City. Only a few are likely to bid formally.

An African or Middle East Olympics is long overdue.

Doha, Qatar, also is expected to join the 2024 race, having not been selected as a finalist candidate city for the 2020 games. Falaknaz welcomes the probability of a neighbouring bid, saying: "Qatar is a friend. If they win it, then fine. We'll share our knowledge and help each other. We recently received a delegation from the Qatar Olympic committee and we shared views."

Falaknaz was a guest at Host Cities Summit, a gathering in Dubai of some of the world's leading sports administrators to discuss emerging nations hosting top sports events.

Lufthansa, Turkish air links more talk than reality

3 December 2012

Raising a finger in the direction of the Gulf region Lufthansa, the German airline is holding talks with its Star Alliance partner Turkish Airlines about the two companies deepening their co-operation; this could be anything from a code share to an eventual merger.

Lufthansa and Turkish could even consider investing in each other’s businesses via a share swap, said one person familiar with the talks, who stressed that the discussions were at an early stage and no decisions had been taken.

Lufthansa is a a vocal critic of the state-controlled Gulf airlines, complaining that it is not competing on a level playing field with fast-growing Emirates Airline, Etihad Airways and Qatar Airways. This is an argument that this web site has covered at length.

But relations have been improving and last month, Qatar Airways announced it was joining oneworld, the global airline alliance in which British Airways is a leading member. Etihad has also started to code-share with Air France-KLM and also has a significant shareholding in Air Berlin.

Emirates meanwhile has formed a wide ranging agreement with Qantas which basically moves all of Qantas' European traffic through Dubai.

Which leave Lufthansa working out who to partner with which leads them to Turkish.

Turkish has doubled its fleet to 200 aircraft over the past five years, but the airline remains mainly a short-haul business flying to Europe, the Middle East and Africa. That is slowly changing with the addition of new routes for instance to the USA and to Asia.

Turkey is the EU’s second largest international aviation market after the US. That is simply based on the size of the population and also its tourism industry.

Closer ties with Turkish Airlines could keep Lufthansa in the race for long haul flights to Asia and stem the flow of business to Gulf carriers. That and continued restrictions on the number of destinations that the Gulf airlines can fly to in Germany. Turkish Airlines may be both the best option for Lufthansa at the moment, and probably the last.

Lufthansa see eastward growth as crucial. Turkish Airlines' Istanbul hub straddles Europe and Asia and is hours closer to Europe than the Gulf airports. The trouble is Istanbul airport is creaking at the seams and has no room for expansion.

Lufthansa and Turkish Airlines already cooperate via code share agreements, and they have a 50-50 joint venture, charter carrier SunExpress.

Moving maintenance to Turkish would make sense with significantly lower labour costs; Turkish Airlines also has a good presence in regions where Lufthansa has low presence, like the Middle East, South Asia and the Mediterranean.

On the other side of the deal this could give Turkish Airlines access to Lufthansa's passengers from wealthy European countries, and a tie-up with an airline that has a good reputation on safety and quality would give its image a boost.

Lufthansa already owns Swiss International Airlines, Austrian Airlines and has stakes in Brussels Airlines and JetBlue Airways Corp.

So far though this is all talk. And the big stumbling clock may be Istanbul's creaking airport. Hub airports for international travelers need the space, size and amenities of a Singapore or Dubai.

Emirates airline’s model is a game changer: CAPA chief