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Thai holiday - Yes or No

24 June 2014

Over the next few months you will see a concerted effort by Thailand’s government and tourism authorities to encourage tourists to return to the country.

Should you go? The simple answer is “No”.

Saying “no” to Thailand is the most effective way of delivering a message to the generals that taking freedom away from people is simply not acceptable in the 21st century. Imagine if the 25million tourists who come to Thailand each year chose to spend their vacation time and vacation money somewhere else. The Thai junta, who are once again, in control of the nation would get a very loud message.

This of course will not happen. There are at least a few million Chinese who will still visit as they see nothing different from their own country. There are plenty of Russians who are now arriving in large enough numbers that Pattaya and Phuket have Russian signage.

And there will be many who think that this is Thailand at its most peaceful. Just remember that the maid who cleans your room no longer has the right to express her views unless of course they are in praise of the new regime.

Visitors who value freedom of speech, liberty and the right to choose who our leaders are may want to look to other destinations..

It is reasonable to argue that the options in SE Asia are not especially attractive. But at least you know what you are getting. It is the hyprocrisy of the coup leaders and their supporters that makes the country so unattractive at this time.

The junta and their supporters, many of whom are now forming an online propaganda army, will say that this is a Thai affair; that Thai politics is not the business of foreigners. That foreigners should not get involved. The generals are taking refuge behind a promoted and rabid nationalism. They are also ignoring the dependence of the nation on foreign tourism and foreign investment.

So-called populist policies that were previously denounced as spendthrift and corrupt and that were blocked by the courts and “independent agencies” are now being unashamedly promoted. But without the checks and balances that kept these projects under scrutiny in the first place.

“Be happy” campaigns that urge the population to forget the coup and its repression are all the rage.

Every day the junta summons a list of people to present themselves to army headquarters. They can expect detention; in some case they can expect prosecution in military courts.

The junta is emphasizing the role of the monarchy in its propaganda and has expanded its use of lese majeste to restrict opposition to the coup. 65 million people are effectively discouraged from discussing perhaps the most important issue in their near future; what will happen to their nation on the death of Rama IX.

Law is now determined by the dictatorship, and enforced through military courts.

Censorship and the monitoring of the population is expanded to unprecedented levels.

Meanwhile, the dictatorship expands the number of people “called in,” detained and arrested and imprisoned for opposing the regime, its laws and its ideology.

Yes the curfew has been lifted; but martial law remains. This includes the use of military court martials without the right of appeal. Political protests and criticism of the takeover remain banned by the junta which appears excessively sensitive to criticism since the coup, suggesting that crackdowns on freedom of expression and association will continue.

The junta has announced that a temporary constitution will be drafted and an interim government installed in about three months. This will be an appointed government working for the military. Elections are a long way off in the future. At least a year. Maybe longer as the junta insists that peace and reforms must first be achieved.

That election will be under a very different constitution. The 2007 constitution was enacted by the army after their 2006 coup. That election still saw Thaksin Shinawatra backed parties win elections in 2008, 2013 and 2014. That will not happen under a new constitution.

Because of the harsh crackdown on political leaders and journalists, protests against the military command are limited and cautious - they have included flash mob techniques, quick pop-up protests which end before authorities arrive to conduct arrests, though arrests have still occurred. There is much wider use of plain-clothed policing.

After a lull it is very possible that protests could grow, and if the military fails to exercise restraint in responding, serious abuses could occur in the context of arrests and detention.

One of the defences uses by pro-coup supporters is that there were human rights abuses by the government of former PM Thaksin Shinawatra. There were; and also during the military takeover in 2006 and during the Abhisit government that came into power afterwards. There were also human rights issues during Yingluck Shinawatra's government. But the problems of the past do not justify the present action.

It is clear that the military has not seized power as a neutral intermediary between rival Yellow Shirt and Red Shirt groups. The military's vision for restoration of civilian rule appears aligned with the Suthep led yellow shirt demands against the former Yingluck government.

There is, at the very least, an alignment of interests between the military and 'anti-government' protestors who, before the coup, sought to bring down the Yingluck government.

What the military has not grasped is that being anti-coup does not necessarily equate with being pro-Thaksin. And there are many members of the red shirt aligned UDD who have distanced themselves from Thaksin. Being anti-coup means being pro freedom of speech; freedom of assembly; freedom of debate; freedom to vote; freedom to protest.

The junta denies that its happiness campaign is a stunt. That the nation is not going to be changed by propaganda, free movies and military junta members leading sing-alongs with school children. The nation will be changed by strong democratic institutions and a vibrant economy, precisely the things that the military junta damaged when they seized power last month.

Meanwhile the junta marches along.