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Filipino maid wins landmark HK case on residency

30 September 2011

This was a landmark day in Hong Kong as a Filipino maid won the right to apply for permanent residency in a massive legal victory for hundreds of thousands of foreign maids fighting for equal treatment.

And it also shows just how important is the separation of the government and the judiciary to effective law in Hong Kong.

The Court of First Instance rejected arguments by Hong Kong government lawyers that the foreign maids did not have the same residency status as other foreign residents.

Friday’s ruling says that the immigration provision denying them the right to apply for permanent residency after seven years was inconsistent with the Basic Law, Hong Kong’s mini-constitution. Other foreign residents have the right to apply after that time.

The case has polarized public opinion over the rights of domestic helpers.

Evangeline Banao Vallejos, who has lived in Hong Kong since 1986, challenged the rejection of her application for permanent residence, asking the court why expatriates such as bankers and cooks could apply for permanent residency after living in the city continuously for seven years.

At least three political parties said an influx would strain the Chinese city’s health care, public housing and education resources.

“We are disappointed at today’s judgment,” said Joseph Law, chairman of the Employers of Domestic Helpers Association in Hong Kong. “We can’t accommodate such a sudden influx of population as this would impose a profound strain on our resources.”

Judge Lam ruled the immigration law that bars foreign domestic helpers from eligibility for permanent residency “derogates” the meaning of the Basic Law. The Basic Law is the de-facto constitution that Hong Kong adopted after the British handed the city back to China. The city has 7.1 million residents.

“The government needs to appeal this case,” Paul Tse, a lawmaker representing the Hong Kong tourism industry, said by phone. “This could lead to enormous pressure on our medical, educational and welfare system.”

Government lawyer David Pannick argued that Hong Kong’s Basic Law allows lawmakers to determine the status of foreign residents and that the maid wasn’t eligible to apply.

Hong Kong’s population is 95 percent ethnic Chinese, according to the most recent census data from 2006. The special administrative region was guaranteed an independent judiciary for 50 years under the “one country, two systems” framework following the handover from British to Chinese rule in 1997.

About 290,000 of Hong Kong’s 7.1 million people are foreign maids. Most of them are from the Philippines or Indonesia.

The Hong Kong government will inevitably, and mistakenly, appeal the decision.

Thailand: the high price of freebies

30 September 2011 - The Financial Times

In the big risk sell-off, Bangkok was always going to be vulnerable. Thailand has an export dependency higher than most up-and-coming economies and an untested, very free-spending government. In the four days before Tuesday’s rally, its SET index lost about one-eighth as foreigners sold en masse.

The surge in the market after Puea Thai’s election victory in July had fragile underpinnings. Stocks least affected by political volatility – energy, utilities and consumer staples – did best, as investors mulled an early dissolution of the PT-led, five-party coalition. Now, though, fears that Yingluck Shinawatra may not last a four-year term have been replaced by fears that she will.

On the evidence so far, the government seems more interested in doling out freebies – tax breaks for first-time car buyers; cuts to oil fund contributions, lowering prices at the pump – than attending to the nation’s chronic infrastructure constraints. The rice-price guarantee programme, due to run for the first five months of the fiscal year beginning in October, is a case in point. It may cost about Bt190bn ($6.2bn): much more than a similar scheme three years ago, and a sum not included in the estimated budget deficit of Bt350bn, or about 3.6 per cent of gross domestic product.

Granted, PT owes its majority to support from the north and north-east, where incomes are low. But by raising prices it could dent the competitiveness of Thai rice exports – about 30 per cent of total world shipments – while imperilling state finances. Sovereign credit default swap prices have leapt about 50 per cent since the scheme was outlined. It is noteworthy, too, that non-Thais mostly sat out Tuesday’s equity rally, putting back $19m, or 3 per cent of this month’s net outflows. Foreign capital is sceptical that this regime can pay its own way.

Press release of the day

29 September 2011

This must be today's most entertaining press release from Dubai Properties as they happily announce that the grand total of two stores - a supermarket and a dry cleaner - have been opened on Bay Avenue....two years after residents moved into Executive Towers.

Maybe they need another release to say that some trees have been planted? 

And this was especially good - DPG was "founded on principles of transparency, accountability, and dedicated customer focus" - it may have been founded on those principles but it has never adhered to them.

"Dubai Properties Group (DPG), a member of Dubai Holding, has announced that Bay Avenue, its retail offering at Business Bay, is open for business. Designed as a venue for al fresco eating, shopping and entertainment, Bay Avenue is a retail walkway at Business Bay, offering two levels of indoor and outdoor space that will feature cafés, restaurants, shops, sporting facilities and essential services.

Among Business Bay's current operational offerings are a Spinneys supermarket and a Champion Cleaners, catering to the needs of Executive Towers and Business Bay residents. Other retail outlets that are currently under fit-out for opening soon include a Coffee Bean & Tea Leaf, Curry Box, Umi Sushi, Aster Medical Centre, and Emirates Driving Institute.

Located in the heart of Business Bay, adjacent to the central business district of Downtown Dubai, DPG has designed Bay Avenue as a community focal point for the residents of The Executive Towers and Business Bay.

Khalid Al Malik, Group Chief Executive Officer, Dubai Properties Group, said, "We are focused on creating communities that provide a high quality environment for our residents and commercial partners. As Bay Avenue develops, it will become an integral part of the Business Bay community meeting the needs of residents and visitors alike."

About Dubai Properties Group:

Dubai Properties Group (DPG), a member of Dubai Holding, develops and manages properties, communities and destinations. Through its subsidiaries DPG provides end to end solutions for a variety of services including sales, leasing, facilities management and security.

Founded on principles of transparency, accountability, and dedicated customer focus, Dubai Properties Group aspires to become the best partner in providing unique lifestyles, by creating a world class organization that offers a wealth of industry knowledge and expertise. DPG will constantly seek new and innovative ways to deliver comprehensive solutions to its stakeholders, investors and business partners.


Gulf royalty pretends it is a special case

29 September 2011 The Financial Times


"Gulf rulers are sending the world an unequivocal message – their countries will remain an exception to the Arab awakening. As the winds of change blow through the Middle East and north Africa, Gulf states are behaving as if it’s business as usual, pursuing small, incremental political reforms that would be deemed irrelevant, if not insulting, in other parts of the region.

In Bahrain, where a Shia uprising was crushed this year, the authorities held a by-election last weekend to replace Shia members who had withdrawn from parliament in protest at the harsh security crackdown. They portrayed the exercise as a confirmation of the al-Khalifa family’s commitment to political reforms.

Next door in the United Arab Emirates another election was held, this one to a federal national council that has a purely advisory role and in which half the members are, in any case, appointed. The election was billed as a step forward because the number of citizens entitled to take part was significantly increased.

Saudi Arabia will stage its second ever municipal elections on Thursday, with only one part of the population, the men, voting for only half the seats in local councils. To appease women, King Abdullah promised this week to include them in the unelected shoura council, another Gulf advisory body but women will have to wait until the next municipal poll for the right to vote and stand in elections.

For now, most of the Gulf’s royal families can afford to pretend that they are a special case. A more pliant civil society dependent on government employment and patronage and plenty of oil money to spread around have kept their people quiescent, with the notable exception of Bahrain and, to a certain extent, Oman.

To bolster their long-term resilience, the six nations of the Gulf Co-operation Council have been acting as a cohesive bloc, their members setting aside differences in favour of unusual solidarity.

The Gulf states, however, are not a homogeneous group. Qatar and the UAE are enormously wealthy and their indigenous populations tiny. Sultan al-Qassemi, the Emirati commentator, argues that citizens in Qatar and the UAE are also wary of creating a precedent that could lead millions of foreigners living in their countries to make their own demands. They are therefore content with what he calls the “jobs for (political) apathy phenomenon”.

The regime in Saudi Arabia, where a larger population faces the same frustrations as their brethren in north Africa, moved quickly to ease potential popular pressures this year, buying time with tens of billions of dollars of social spending. The royal family has also consolidated its alliance with the conservative religious establishment, which has always provided its main source of legitimacy.

In nearby Bahrain, however, the picture is radically different. Manama remains vulnerable to protests by the Shia majority whose demands for fair representation are not being answered. Oman was also hit by popular protests this year, leading its ruler, Sultan Qaboos, to promise constitutional reforms that, if implemented, would go much farther than what his neighbours offer.

Being part of the GCC has strengthened the hand of the rulers in both countries. Troops from other GCC states were sent to shore up Bahrain’s al-Khalifa royal family and the rich members will be subsidising the poor, with Manama and Muscat set to receive some $20bn in assistance.

“The Gulf is part and parcel of what’s going on in the region – the case of Bahrain and Oman showed how people could be inspired by what’s going on elsewhere,” says Abdulkhaleq Abdulla, a professor of political science at Emirates University.

But the Gulf also has its specificities. “The forces of status quo are much stronger than the forces of change and the regimes and the resources they have make them resistant to change,” says Professor Abdulla. “There is also a feeling that in the Gulf you are more privileged than the rest of the Arab world and that regimes also go back in history.”

The Gulf’s exception might be that popular sentiment is more in favour of reform than revolution – even Bahrain’s distraught Shia community would settle for a constitutional monarchy rather than the overthrow of the al-Khalifas.

But this attitude should not be confused with immunity. Timid demands for reform today could become bolder if political transitions in north Africa provide a successful model of change, or if oil prices drop and governments’ financial largesse evaporates."

EK's new routes

28 September 2011

This page needs a quick summary of what is new on Emirates over the next six months:

St. Petersburg from 1 November 2012
Baghdad from 13 November 2012
Rio de Janeiro and Buenos Aires (shared flight) from 3 January 2012
Dublin from 9 January 2012
Lusaka and Harare from 1 February 2012
Dallas from 2 February 2012
Seattle from 1 March 2012

EK's US growth

30 September 2011 - Update

The EK press release was a little misleading - The new DFW flight in fact replaces the second IAH flight, which will stop operating when the DFW flight comes online. The DFW schedule EK221/222 is also a virtual copy of the EK213/214 rotation. The last day of operation of EK213/214 is Jan 31. First day of operation of EK221/222 is Feb 02.

28 September 2011

Emirates will launch daily service from Dubai to Dallas & Seattle from 2nd February & 1st March 2012.

Tim Clark said that these two routes will be two of three US destinations added in 2012 and that within five years Emirates could be serving more than 10 cities, all with its ultra-large Airbus A380.

Dallas and Seattle will be EK's fifth and sixth US destinations.

Bets on the next US destination include Washington, Chicago and Miami. 

Emirates will start its daily flight to Dallas-Fort Worth on February 2nd, with the Seattle service launched on March 1st, both using Boeing 777 aircraft.

The choice of Dallas-Fort Worth and Seattle surprised some US airline executives, with Chicago, Boston and Washington D.C. seen by some as more likely choices, but Emirates pointed to demand in the two cities created by the energy, tech and aerospace sectors.

The impact of the US. expansion is being closely watched by the industry as some European airlines (and of course Air Canada) continue to protest against Emirates' development in the region, claiming the airline is sucking business through its Dubai hub with the assistance of unfair government subsidies, a charge the company vehemently denies.

US carriers, with the exception of Delta Air Lines Inc., have so far stopped short of voicing criticism, and United Continental Holdings Inc. (UAL) CEO Jeff Smisek last month praised the airline and Dubai's aviation policy, drawing comparison with the perceived absence of support for the industry from the US administration.

Smisek's remarks were notable because of the fierce stand taken against Emirates by Deutsche Lufthansa AG (and Air Canada), United's partner in the Star alliance.

The Americas was Emirates' fastest-growing region in the year to March 31 with revenue up 37.9%, while sales in its largest geographical area of operations--east Asia and Australasia--rose by 30.9%. Sales in the Americas lagged those on flights to Africa, where it serves 19 cities with plans to add two more early next year.

Emirates and rivals such as Abu Dhabi-based Etihad Airways and Qatar Airways have capitalized on their geographical location to use new long-range aircraft to funnel business through their hubs.

Growth in new routes has slowed down in the last year as the airline has taken delivery of only six planes in the past six month.

But EK now has 52 airplanes due in the next 18 months or so and is accelerating network expansion accordingly.

There are A380s being delivered each month from now to April 2012 and 2 777s arriving each month through 2012. Some A330s may leave the fleet, but they are useful in starting secondary routes to Africa and Europe and the A350 is still a few years away.

The DFW market is demographically large and growing, economically strong (relatively speaking), and has a substantial market especially to India and South Asia.

SEA is also logical - the technology market to and from India is substantial. A feeder/code share with Alaskan Airlines would be interesting.

The flight times are:

Dallas (From 2nd February 2012 until 10th March 2012)
DXB-DFW 02:45-09:05 16hrs 20mins D 77L
DFW-DXB 11:50-12:20 + 1 14hrs 30mins D 77L

Dallas (From 11th March 2012)
DXB-DFW 02:45-10:05 16hrs 20mins D 77L
DFW-DXB 12:50-12:20 + 1 14hrs 30mins D 77L

Seattle (From 1st March 2012 until 10th March 2012)
DXB-SEA 09:50-13:10 15hrs 20mins D 77W
SEA-DXB 17:10-19:40 + 1 14hrs 30mins D 77W

Seattle (From 11th March 2012)
DXB-SEA 09:50-13:50 15hrs D 77W
SEA-DXB 17:25-18:55 + 1 14hrs 30mins D 77W

The target market once again will be transfer traffic to the Indian sub continent. And this is going to put even more pressure on the European carriers who fly from the US through their hubs including Amsterdam, Frankfurt and London.

EK can afford to expand during an economic downturn and this could be critical in building traffic on these routes.

Delta will be under pressure to restart its non-stop US-India flights to remain viable against Emirates. This ironically would also hurt its Skyteam partner KLM at its Amsterdam hub.

The Nazis are back in Chiang Mai

28 September 2011

There is nothing nicer than a girl in uniform; except when it is a school event and the girls have dressed up as Adolf Hitler and a group of jack-booting Nazis. It should not come as a surprise; it has happened before. There is the customary outrage; there are the usual complaints about the Thai education system. There is the usual hapless apology from the school and we can all come back and do this again in a couple of years.

This time the event even made in to the Wall Street Journal.

This was sports day at the Sacred Heart catholic school in Chiang Mai where children traditionally choose their own theme for the day.

Last week’s event was a shocker with children dressed up in Nazi regalia marching into the school displaying one-armed salutes.

Local honorary consuls from a number of countries visited the school on Monday to ask why the parade was allowed to take place and came back with the answer that the students didn’t realize it would upset anybody.

The local private education authority also received the same response from the Roman Catholic school.

“It happened because the students were unaware and I have asked the school to make sure they are more careful in the future,” Chanwit Tuphsuphan, secretary-general of the Office of the Private Education Commission, was reported as saying in the Bangkok Post.

After all it is not just Thais who think that there is something entertaining about dressing as a villainous Nazi - in 2005 Britain’s Prince Harry – then 20 years old – was pictured on the front of The Sun newspaper wearing a swastika armband to a friend’s fancy dress party.

The reality is that the Thai education system is so poor that there is little awareness of any history outside Thailand. Indeed, ask Thais about their own country's history in the second world war and you will mostly get a blank stare.

The World Economic Forum recently published its annual competitiveness survey, and the quality of secondary and tertiary education in Thailand was ranked 77th out of 142 countries surveyed, compared with Singapore’s number 2 ranking, 14 for Malaysia and 61 for the Philippines.

As for the school - this was there official response - which hardly constitutes either awareness or an apology; rule one of an English language press release - have it read first by a native English speaker.

REF: Deeply Apologies
To whom this may concern,
On 23 September 2011, at Sacred Heart School of Chiang Mai has organized a sport day activity and it has been divided into groups of 7 different colors and amongst its various colors, there was the “Red” color group which was dressed up imitating some Nazi symbols. The purpose and motivation was to provide a sense of participation in much closer knowledge of being together for this particular “Red” color group. In fact, the main reason and desire behind of imitating some of these symbols was not to create any differences of damaging each individual image and identity.

We, the entire Sacred Heart School personal are deeply saddened by this incident which has caused much undesirable inconvenience. And we wish to extent our sincerity and our deepest regret towards all those who have provided us the utmost knowledge and are more aware of getting our teachers, staffs and students in fulfilling and realizing in the most respectful and civilize behavior in this society. We will be take more serious approach and provided more positive behavior for not creating any sure event in our school compound in anytime, anywhere.
We deeply and sincere apologies.
Yours respectfully,

Sr. Darunee Sripramong
Director of Sacred Heart School

It is ignorance not malice; ask any non Thai child about the Khmer Rouge and Cambodia and you will get a blank look. But if you want to dress up as a villain at least find out a little about who the villains are and who you might be offending. After all Thais are the first to complain at perceived cultural wrongs by foreigners.

It is also unlikely that the students could be so well prepared without both awareness and support of both parents and staff at the school.

These pictures do not help the school's feeble defence: who paid for the large banners? who hung the large banners?

Sadly the school takes no responsibility and simply blames the students. Sadly typical.

From 707 to 787

27 September 2011

Boeing 787 Dreamliner airframe #8's landing gear breaks contact from the ground on departure from Paine Field in Everett, Washington, September 27,2011, for delivery to the 787's first customer, All Nippon Airways (ANA) of Japan. Love the wings!

From the wonderful site - www.aviationexplorer.com

Pan Am - on TV

27 September 2011

One election; two stories

26 September 2011

Polls a great achievement: Gulf News

Observers blame the drop in voter turnout on lack of parliamentary culture

Emiratis on Election Day expressed strong support for empowering the Federal National Council (FNC), a top official said yesterday describing Saturday's polls as a great achievement for the UAE.

The UAE leadership's vision of promoting political participation is an integral part of the country's progress and overall development, said Dr Anwar Mohammad Gargash, Minister of State for Foreign Affairs, Minister of State for Federal National Council (FNC) Affairs and Chairman of the National Election Committee (NEC).

"The UAE citizens have expressed their strong support in empowering the FNC in its second milestone in the political development in the country," Dr Gargash said.

However, observers felt that the voting turnout at the FNC elections which was about 28 per cent was low and blamed it on the lack of electoral culture among a large segment of citizens. They said the lack of publicity and preparations and the limited mandate of the House had played a significant role and failed to pull large number of voters.

Article continues below

"Despite repeated calls for expanding the FNC's mandate since 2006 elections, the power of the members of the House remained unchanged, a matter which left many citizens unwilling to go to the polls," said Dr Nisreen Morad, assistant professor of political science at the UAE University.

Ahmad Bin Shabib Al Daheri, former deputy speaker of the FNC, said the drop in voter turnout to 28 per cent from 74 per cent in the 2006 elections was mainly caused by lack of parliamentary culture among citizens on the electoral rolls.


****************************************************
In other local Media the Khaleej Times trumpeted : FNC Elections: UAE makes history reporting that the UAE was swept by celebrations after a historic election saw 20 new members elected to the Federal National Council on Saturday.

********************************
Note that there are 430,000 Emiratis above the age of 21; of this number 129,000 were selected to vote.



UAE poll attracts low turnout : Financial Times

Elections in the oil-rich United Arab Emirates saw a turnout of barely more than a quarter, official results showed, capping a low-key event that made only a small nod to pressures for democratic change elsewhere in the Middle East.

Voters’ reasons for staying away from the vote for the consultative Federal National Council varied from an apathy borne of material contentment, to unhappiness at the restricted electoral franchise and the powerlessness of the body they were selecting, analysts said.

The UAE’s approach is a test of whether an autocratic state that is both wealthy and largely free from the sectarian divisions behind the crisis in the fellow Gulf nation Bahrain can ride out the Arab political awakening sweeping through the Middle East.

Taufiq Rahim, a Dubai-based political analyst, said: “If there is one thing this election reinforces, for better or for worse, it’s that the UAE has its own timeline. It responds to the circumstances and concerns of its own citizens, rather than the region.”

Only about 28 per cent of eligible voters cast their ballots in elections held on Saturday, said Anwar Mohammed Gargash, chairman of the national election committee, according to the Emirati state news agency.

He said participation had been good, if not quite as broad as the government had hoped for, adding that the UAE had “presented a new transparent experiment in the electoral process”.

Analysts said the low turnout may have been partly because most people were unused to voting. The franchise was expanded – by a process not detailed by the government – from 7,000 at the first ballot five years ago to 130,000 this time, although that is still a minority of the UAE’s voting-age population.

The 20 generally well-connected Emiratis elected included only one woman, even though women play an increasingly high-profile role in the still-conservative society and significantly outnumber men in university intakes.

At Dubai’s World Trade Centre polling station, one of only 13 in the country, mainly male candidates in traditional white dress and their supporters gathered on election day in coffee shops near the entrance, discussing the day’s developments.

There was evidence of greater enthusiasm for the election in the poorer northern emirates, the target of a government investment programme of more than $1.5bn announced earlier this year, in what some observers see as a response to the economic discontent partly underpinning the uprisings in other Arab countries. In the emirate of Ras al-Khaimah, candidates’ election posters lined the streets, competing for lamppost space.

The balance of Emiratis’ political views is hard to measure in a society with no tradition of opinion polling and where locals are outnumbered more than five to one by expatriate workers.

Ibtisam al-Ketbi, a sociology professor at Emirates University, said the election experience had been positive, adding that more voters would turn out in future as they became more familiar with the process and more comfortable with the institutions representing them.

She said: “Part of it is understanding the meaning of the elections; they don’t understand the role or the Federal National Council, or are not convinced that [it] has a big role in their life. Even in the more democratic countries some are reluctant to vote; they feel their vote is not counted.”

 

 

Easyjet versus Fastjet

26 September 2011

There is news in the UK today that EasyJet is considering legal action after being notified that its founder Sir Stelios Haji-Ioannou is setting up a rival airline called Fastjet.

In a statement EasyJet announced it was told of the new launch, and that it will act to protect its rights.

The budget airline added that it had a number of rights under its agreements with SIr Stelios and his easyGroup holding company and that if any of these are infringed, it "will take necessary action to protect the rights of easyJet and the interests of its shareholders".

Sir Stelios, who founded the airline and remains a non-executive director on its board, has alleged that easyJet breached the terms of a contract between the two parties, according to the airline.

easyJet said it "emphatically rejects" this and "continues to seek constructive dialogue with easyGroup and Sir Stelios".

The news comes just after the easyGroup founder withdrew his calls for an extraordinary general meeting in order to remove a member of the airline's board.

Easyjet shareholders must be nervous. Sir Stelios pioneered low cost flying in Europe with Easyjet and having done it once must believe that he can do it again.

However Sir Stelios and his family are the largest shareholders in easyJet with 38% ownership. So he is likely to be careful not to damage Easyjet's value.

The Fastjet website only has the words "Fastjet.com by Stelios. Coming Soon!"

Cottoning on

The West’s relative decline is inevitable but the East’s rise will still be troublesome
25 September 2011 The Economist


It is a crisp Friday morning in Santa Isabel, a small Brazilian town 60km north-east of São Paulo. Gabriel de Matos, technology director at Paramount Textiles, is taking delivery of the latest machine for dyeing the wool yarn that is made here. It won’t look out of place: most of the equipment is less than ten years old. The machines for spinning yarn are 40% faster than the ones they replaced. The new kit has allowed Paramount to supply finer-grade wools for the men’s suits its customers make.

The factory refit and the move upmarket was a response to competitive pressures that have driven many local rivals out of business. The global market for woollens has halved since the mid-1990s. Consumers these days prefer casual clothes, but Brazil is now too rich to compete with cotton producers in Vietnam or Indonesia. “We need a premium product like wool to cover our costs,” says Mr de Matos. China also produces wool and its land, labour and capital are often cheaper. “Thank goodness we are so far away,” he says. “Time is money and that gives us some breathing space.”

Paramount is copying the tricks long used by rich-world businesses to fend off low-cost rivals from emerging markets: better designs, newer machinery, shorter production runs (to give rarity value to each line) and faster delivery to local markets.

Britain bounded ahead in textile production two centuries ago, and established firms have been looking over their shoulder ever since. An early challenge came from the textile industry in New England, where countless townships called Manchester were founded (of which one survives). That cluster soon faced competition from factories in the low-wage American South.

The cotton industry has carried on travelling: its technology moves easily to wherever labour costs are low. The pattern has been repeated for other sorts of ventures. More complex technologies are harder to copy, so their diffusion has been slower. But technology eventually spreads. It is what drives economic convergence, making large parts of the developing world better off year by year.

Demography is destiny again

For much of the past two centuries the know-how that determines productivity and living standards has been concentrated in the West. That is true of hard engineering technology as well as the tacit knowledge of how best to organise production, support markets and manage aggregate demand. Because large productivity gains were confined to the West, the populous parts of the world stayed poor.

That was anomalous. Population has determined economic power for most of human history. Now demography and productivity are pushing in the same direction. America and Europe are demographic minnows compared with the developing world’s two giants, China and India. And the rich world’s financial crisis and its aftermath is accelerating the shift of economic power eastwards. Just as the catch-up in emerging markets is speeding up and broadening out, the rich world’s economies seem to be grinding to a halt. If China can avoid a blow-up in the next decade, it is likely to become the world’s biggest economy—though its citizens would still be poor by American standards.

The big question for the global economy is whether the rapid growth in emerging markets can continue. The broad economic logic suggests more of the world economy’s gains should come from convergence by emerging markets than from the rich world pushing ahead. Each innovation adds less to rich-world prosperity than the adoption of an established technology does to a poor country. At the start of the industrial revolution the cotton industry alone could make Britain’s productivity jump. But now that the frontier is wider, there is less scope for leading economies to surge ahead. More of the world’s growth ought to come from catching up.

But contrary to some excited forecasts, the growth of emerging economies is unlikely to continue at the same pace, or in a straight line. Economic convergence is a powerful force but cannot knock over every obstacle. And the barriers to growth become bigger as economies enter the difficult middle-income phase of development.

Moving capital and workers from dying to rising ventures is trickier than transplanting poor rural migrants to cities in the early phase of catch-up. As economies become richer they can rely less and less on the brute force of additional machine power to drive their prosperity. They have greater need of a skilled workforce and a financial system that is attuned to where the best returns are likely to be made. Countries that have relied on exports to fuel their growth need to shift to internal sources of spending, with all the associated headaches for monetary and fiscal policy. In the past many middle-income economies have run aground because they have failed to meet such challenges.

Careful what you wish for

The biggest emerging markets, with their huge foreign-exchange reserves, appear to be almost crisis-proof (at least outside eastern Europe) in contrast to the seemingly crisis-prone rich world. But setbacks in making the shift from poor to rich are inevitable. Indeed a lesson of recent economic history is that countries and regions that ride out a crisis well are all the more vulnerable to the next one. Hubris leads to policy mistakes, as the developed world has proved so devastatingly. So thick is the gloom pervading the rich world that the once-regular emerging-market crises have almost been forgotten. But this makes it even likelier that they will one day return.

Those anxious that the rich world’s economic power is ebbing might welcome a few emerging-market slip-ups. A less frantic rate of growth in the developing world would also slow the relative decline of the West and allow it to cling on to some of its privileges for longer. The dollar and the euro could maintain a reserve-currency duopoly for longer; commodity-price pressures on businesses and consumers would ease; and the impact of developing economies on relative wages and jobs turnover might be less jarring.

Yet the emerging markets are the best hope for global growth—for the next few years at least. Japan’s economy is in a funk; the euro zone is in danger of imploding; and much of the rest of the rich world is hung-over from a giant credit boom. America, Britain and others took on debts that now look steep compared with incomes and the value of the homes against which much of the money was borrowed. They are saving hard to fill the gap. Those with cash (including a chunk of the corporate world and not a few households that gained from the housing boom) are clinging on to it because of uncertainty about future demand, job prospects, taxes, the supply of credit and much else.

That is the main reason why a fast rate of catch-up by the emerging markets would be better for the West than a faltering one. A richer and more consumer-led China would be likelier to buy more of the services in which developed countries have a comparative advantage.

It would be healthy, too, if the developing world could break the rich world’s monopoly on international finance. The emerging markets account for almost half of global GDP but have no reserve currency of their own. For now there seems little alternative to the dollar as a financial lodestar and the main storehouse for the world’s precautionary saving. The yuan is the likeliest candidate to supplant it but has so far taken only baby steps to becoming international. The longer it takes for the yuan to emerge, the more risky the global financial set-up will become. The worry is that strong demand for Treasuries as reserves might tempt America to overstretch itself. The wreckage from the rich world’s housing bust shows the dangers of money that is too cheap.

The growth of emerging economies will not continue at the same pace, or in a straight line. Setbacks in making the shift from poor to rich are inevitableIn other ways, too, it might be better for the rich world if China and others caught up with it sooner rather than later. Faster catch-up would narrow the wage gap between emerging and rich countries and help to relieve the downward pressure on unskilled wages. A mature Chinese economy would waste fewer natural resources on hard-to-justify investments. Many in the rich world fear the loss of economic dominance that will be the eventual outcome of convergence. But perhaps losing it is worse than having lost it.

And perhaps the pessimism about America and Europe is as overdone as the optimism about emerging markets. The rich world is an enticing place when viewed from the developing world. For all its troubles, America’s economy is a source of envy. Europe’s high-end industries and luxury goods are not easily mimicked. Emerging-market firms find it easier to do business, to raise finance and to find skilled workers in the rich world. Such attributes are hard to replicate. If it were easy, the emerging economies would already be rich.

A piece of Canada on Sheikh Zayeed Road

24 September 2011

So Tim Horton's has opened on Sheikh Zayeed Road. A prime location for a budget brand.

It is next door to a Starbucks and is probably stealing their customers.

Tim Hortons' new Dubai location represents "the first true export of the brand," said CEO Paul House at Tuesday's opening.

The chain has some self-serve kiosks in the UK and Ireland, and a temporary location at the Kandahar Airfield for troops in Afghanistan, but the Dubai store is its first full-serve restaurant outside of North America.

The menu is apparently identical to that in Canada; presumably with the Dubai mark up on prices. Although Dubai is a "mature" coffee market, Tim Horton's sees opportunity in its value-priced food options, which it says are not readily available in the region; Doughnuts, Bagels and Soups.

The store in Dubai is the first of a development plan with Dubai-based Apparel Group to build 120 stores in the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait and Oman over the next five years.

But the Canadian coffee-and-doughnut chain says it's in no rush to enter another country and isn't committed to a vigorous timetable for international expansion.

Instead, the chain plans to keep international efforts focused on the U.S. market, where it says it is making in-roads through non-traditional model stores — kiosks in places like gas stations and universities. To be honest that would probably work better in the UAE. Tim Horton's is coffee that you buy on the road or at airports. And it does well because of its cheaper pricing.

A Tim Hortons at DXB would do well; maybe even better if it is in Terminal 2?

Based in Oakville, Ont., Tim Hortons (TSX:THI) is Canada's biggest restaurant chain and the fourth-biggest in North America with more than 3,700 restaurants on the continent.


Camfrog Thaksin?

23 September 2011

This was not a good move. The Thai prime minister, Yingluck Shinawatra, allowed her brother and deposed leader Thaksin Shinawatra, to summon government ministers for a meeting by webcam from his self-imposed exile abroad.

The question is who is in charge. The reality is that it is Thaksin; and that the people who voted for Puea Thai and Yingluk were in reality voting for her brother.

Bangkok's taxi drivers know the score; the other day my driver was telling me that Thaksin will be back soon.

On Wednesday, Thaksin joined a meeting with Thai ministers at Yingluck's party headquarters via Skype. OK - so he was not on Camfrog!

"Ministers squirmed uncomfortably in their chairs as Thaksin acted like a teacher, 'lecturing' some of them who failed to measure up at the tension-filled meeting, which lasted for more than two hours," the Bangkok Post newspaper reported on Friday.

Thaksin went into detail on plans for a big increase in the minimum wage and a rice intervention plan, it said, adding that he would chair similar meetings each week. Only ministers and deputy ministers from Yingluck's Puea Thai party were involved, but the party has the bulk of cabinet positions.

This has to weaken Yingluck and open her up to constant criticism.

"Thaksin has been pulling the strings for a while behind the scenes. Now he has decided to come out publicly," said Pavin Chachavalpongpun, a fellow at Singapore's Institute of South-east Asian Studies. "But he pushes too hard, moves too fast, and thus leaves too little room for Yingluck to breathe."

The question is how will the Thai military and nationalists respond. So we go back to 2006 and find a reason to remove Puea Thai and the Shinawatras.

Yingluck has played down the Skype episode. "It was a normal chat, just with Puea Thai ministers, not the whole cabinet. Thaksin called during the end of the meeting to show support to all, not to advise on anything," she said.

It won't make the government collapse, but it does hurt Yingluck internationally and takes away her credibility.

But in reality she is just another puppet. Abhisit was the military's puppet and Yingluck's strings are pulled by Thaksin.

Let them default

22 September 2011

Athens has agreed another package of last-minute measures to secure another €8-billion of emergency funding. Once again it has been forced to implement a policy that is not working, ever more severe rounds of austerity, to secure a dubious reward: enough cash to keep the country ticking over until next time.

It is not working. The Greeks cannot take the pain. There are massive strikes across the country today. And the Germans and French have little interest in providing additional bail out funds.

Even with the swingeing new measures, the government will miss its targets for deficit reduction. The case for allowing Greece to default has never been stronger.

Given the structural problems the economy faces, the government deserves credit for addressing at least some of them. Among the measures are a reduction in the tax-free allowance on salaries from €8,000 to €5,000, a 20 per cent reduction in pensions above €1,200 a month, and a proposed reduction of 30,000 in the state work force. A huge battle can now be expected in parliament, echoing the unrest in the streets.

Such measures should secure release of the next €8-billion of bail-out funds, and are essential for Greece’s long term economic viability. Yet the country’s fundamental position remains unchanged. The 2011 budget deficit target is 7.6 per cent of gross domestic product, but data to the end of August suggest the deficit is about 5 per cent wider than required to meet that target. The economy is likely to shrink 5.5 per cent this year, undermining its revenue base.

Policy makers should accept that Greece is insolvent and begin the process of managing a restructuring of its debt. That will require more pain for banks than has been proposed so far. Too bad. The banks lent too much money to Greeks who could not fund the repayments. Let the banks take the pain.

Investors who have remained invested throughout the crisis may well lose everything. That is a high price to pay, but it is essential if the euro zone is ever to escape the consequences of its blind date with Athens.

England Pakistan schedule

22 September 2011

Pakistan cannot host International cricket in their country after the Lahore attack on Sri Lankan team.

Pakistan play their home series overseas, mostly in UAE. They played a series against Australia in England and against South Africa in the UAE Next up is their International home series against England.

Pakistan vs England 2012 Series Schedule: there will be 3 test matches, 5 One Day Internationals and 3 Twenty Twenty matches in the series which will start on 17 January 2011 and finish on 27 February. All three test matches will be played in Dubai. And these will be the biggest games hosted in Dubai's splendid cricket stadium at Sports City. Lets just hope that transport and parking is well organised. Based on previous evidence this is unlikely.

It is a shame that none of the one day games are being played in Sharjah.

Pakistan vs England – 1st Test Match
Dubai, UAE Jan 17- Jan 21 2012

Pakistan vs England – 2nd Test Match
Dubai, UAE Jan 25 – Jan 29 2012

Pakistan vs England – 3rd Test Match
Dubai, UAE Feb 03- Feb 07 2012

Pakistan vs England – 1st ODI
Abu Dhabi, UAE 13 Feburary 2012

Pakistan vs England – 2nd ODI
Abu Dhabi, UAE 15 Feburary 2012

Pakistan vs England – 3rd ODI
Dubai (DSC), UAE 18 Feburary 2012

Pakistan vs England – 4th ODI
Dubai (DSC), UAE 21 Feburary 2012

Pakistan vs England – 1st Twenty20
Dubai (DSC), UAE 23 Feburary 2012

Pakistan vs England – 2nd Twenty20
Dubai (DSC), UAE 25 Feburary 2012

Pakistan vs England – 3rd Twenty20
Abu Dhabi, UAE 27 Feburary 2012

Nakheel's silted sukuk

22 September 2011

Just when you think that the Dubai property sector might slowly return to sanity there comes another shocker - and once again it is from Nakheel; who many will remember were at the forefront of Dubai's 2008 financial crisis.

Now it has been revealed that much of the land backing a $1.03bn sukuk bond from Dubai property developer Nakheel is unreclaimed seabed.

Trade creditors holding the paper have little if any recourse to tangible assets in the event of a default.

The Islamic bond, or sukuk, is part of Nakheel’s $16bn debt restructuring deal which repays trade creditors 40 percent in cash and 60 percent via the bond.

The two assets that back the sukuk are a strip of waterfront land and a still partially submerged crescent that will form part of a man-made island shaped like a palm at Jebel Ali, on Dubai’s outskirts.

The land plot consists of 350 million square feet of undeveloped land at Waterfront South. This was advertised as being the new Hong Kong. No development has ever commenced. The second asset is made up of 1.3 billion square feet along the Palm Jebel Ali crescent, of which only 10 percent has already been reclaimed from the sea.

The sukuk prospectus does not outline the assets allocated to support the sukuk but a term sheet distributed to creditors details the area.

Such intangibility would usually cause investors to steer clear but Nakheel’s trade creditors really have no where else to turn to. It is that or nothing.

Many contractors, who have waited over two years for the cash owed to them, have sought to exit the sukuk instrument in the secondary market. The paper is already trading at a chunky discount. Yesterday it was at between 75.7890 and 78.316 for a corresponding yield of 17.555 percent and 16.631 percent, according to Thomson Reuters data. That is down from 78.900 to 80.050 for a yield of 16.415 percent and 16.011 percent a day earlier.

Nakheel is now wholly-owned by the Dubai government as part of its parent Dubai World’s debt restructuring. The company has hit back at "foreign media" reports doubting the real value of its land assets.

Nakheel chairman Ali Rashid Lootah was reacting to reports by Reuters and other agencies and newspapers that the company’s property is overestimated on the grounds much of it is unreclaimed seabed.

Reuters, citing banking sources in the UAE, said Nakheel’s land plot consists of 350 million sq ft of undeveloped land at Waterfront South. The remainder is made up of 1.3 billion sq ft along the Palm Jebel Ali crescent, of which only 10 percent has already been reclaimed from the sea.

“Such news leaks will only hurt the investors as they are not based on facts and real investment value,” Lootah told the Sharjah-based daily Alkhaleej on Thursday. “Nakheel’s assets against sukuk have been evaluated by specialized international parties and have been accepted by Ernst and Young auditors and by all financial and commercial creditors…this was evident in the company’s success in issuing Dh3.8 billion sukuk as a first tranche of Dh4.8 billion.”

The Ernst and Young valuation would be interesting. Meanwhile Nakheel is back to blaming foreign media; yet it is the foreign media that provides the critique that the local media all to often ignores.

Asset quality concerns, and ambiguity over what happens if a default occurs, have been a major problem for the sukuk market. Realistically the land itself may be valueless without the reclamation/construction efforts of Nakheel.

In the sukuk prospectus Nakheel says it has postponed any reclamation efforts for the near-term, leaving sukuk holders with an investment backed in part by seabed for the foreseeable future.

Thai Smile design unveiled

22 September 2011

Thai Airways International (Thai) has unveiled the aircraft design for its low-cost unit, Thai Smile Air, which is designed to reflect its "trendy-friendly-worthy" concept. Where do they get these ideas from?

"Smile" in the sub-brand's name represents friendliness and follows "Thai" which represents quality and premium service," said Thai President Piyasvasti Amranand.

"Hence, in combination, THAI Smile Air and its logo convey light, friendly premium service. The Thai Smile Air aircraft design has three ribbons streaming across its fuselage in cool pink, yellow, and orange, to demonstrate the Thai Smile Air's image of Trendy-Friendly-Worthy.

In October, Thai Smile Air will begin its staff recruitment through Wingspan Services Co Ltd, an outsourcing subsidiary of Thai. In the first phase, 40 pilots will be recruited in October and 100 female cabin crews will be recruited in November.

This means that although the crew will be flying airplanes in Thai colours they will not have a Thai Airways contract and will presumably be on different and no union employment contracts.

Thai Smile Air will eventually operate eleven Airbus A320. The first aircraft delivery is in June 2012, the 2nd and 3rd aircraft delivery will be in August and the 4th aircraft delivery will be in September. Thereafter, two A320s will be delivered in January and March 2013, respectively.

Flight operations can begin July 2012. Initially THAI Smile Air will operate domestic flights such as Ubon Ratchathani, Udon Thani, Khon Kaen, Chiang Rai, and Surat Thani. I assume they will take over existing TG operations on these routes. Thai will continue to serve its profitable domestic destinations of Phuket and Chiang Mai. Thai Smile will look to fly on international routes to China and India from 2013.

In the meantime the Thai/Tiger joint venture appears to have been shelved. Not a surprise.

The UAE's quiet election

22 September 2011

The UAE has an election this weekend on 24 September. But the majority of this country's residents know little about it and certainly cannot participate.

This will be the second elections in the UAE's 40-year history, but officials and candidates are finding it tough to answer a commonly asked question: why can't everyone vote?

The UAE government in July hand-picked 129,000 voters to elect 20 of the 40 members of the Federal National Council (FNC), an advisory assembly with very limited parliamentary powers.

The pool represents just 12 per cent of Emirati nationals.

The rest of the FNC will be directly by the ruling families.

The government has not disclosed how the voters were selected, and the selection process for candidates has also been unclear.

A list of voters has been released, but candidates still wonder how best to communicate with their audience, a minority of the population. The problem is exacerbated by the fact the population is around 5 million when you include expatriates.

So go back; of 5 million residents, just 129,000 have been selected to vote.

Candidates can spend up to 2 million dirhams ($544,000) of their own money or raise funds from local communities to finance their campaigns. Foreign donations are strictly forbidden.

The UAE government held seminars in the past few weeks for candidates about the rules of campaigning while at least one non-profit organisation held a training course on "how to run a successful campaign."

But many candidates still appear to lack a basic understanding of the FNC's constitutional powers, which are virtually nil.

Some have promised to introduce new legislation, even though only government ministries are allowed to do so. The council can only suggest changes to draft bills. Even then, the country's president can overturn any proposed changes.

But it is a step forward; less than 7,000 people, or less than 1 percent of the population, were allowed to vote in the UAE's first elections for the council in 2006.

Baby steps; but at least they are heading in the right direction.

America's death penalty is wrong

22 September 2011

There really is no point in lecturing the world on human rights when you cannot put your own house in order. At some stage America needs to have an adult conversation about the death penalty. Yesterday the state of Georgia executed convicted murderer Troy Davis in a case that drew international attention because of claims by his advocates that he may have been innocent.

Davis, convicted of the 1989 killing of a police officer, was put to death by lethal injection at 11.08 local time Thursday at a prison in central Georgia after the U.S. Supreme Court declined to hear a final appeal, a prison official said.

The case has attracted international attention and an online protest that has accumulated nearly a million signatures because of doubts expressed in some quarters over whether he killed police officer Mark MacPhail in 1989.

MacPhail was shot and killed outside a Burger King restaurant in Savannah, Georgia, as he went to the aide of a homeless man who was being beaten. MacPhail's family say Davis is guilty and called for his execution.


Yet even now a majority of Americans support the death penalty and most executions attract little national attention.

However the Davis case prompted a rash of protests as well as expressions of concern from Europe.

France and the Council of Europe this week urged U.S. authorities to stay the execution. The pope, South Africa's Desmond Tutu and former President Jimmy Carter are among thousands of influential dignitaries, and more than 600,000 people in total, who signed a petition seeking to stop Davis' execution.

In the end, their efforts made no difference

Since Davis's conviction, seven of nine witnesses have changed or recanted their testimony, some have said they were coerced by police to testify against him and some say another man committed the crime.

There is no physical evidence linked Davis to the killing.

The Supreme Court took the rare step in 2009 of allowing the defense to present its case to an evidentiary hearing but a federal judge in Savannah said it cast "minimal doubt" on the conviction.

Once a death warrant was signed, Davis's best hope of avoiding execution had rested with the Georgia Board of Pardons and Paroles but on Tuesday it denied him clemency following a one-day hearing.

On Wednesday, his lawyers went through a series of maneuvers in an attempt to stay the execution finally reaching the Supreme Court.

It took the court more than four hours to issue its one-sentence order, an unusually long time in such cases.

Brian Kammer, a lawyer for Davis, said in seeking a stay from the Supreme Court that newly available evidence revealed false, misleading and inaccurate information was presented at the trial, "rendering the convictions and death sentence fundamentally unreliable."

"I did not take your son, father, brother" - Troy Davis at his execution according to media witness, his last words "For those about to take my life, may God have mercy on your souls. May God bless your souls."

And of course Troy Davis was black. The bottom line is, in the end, it doesn't matter if a person is guilty or not. In the end it comes down to the fact that killing is wrong. Society has the right to punish; it doesn't have the right to kill.

And if you accept that then you also have to accept that sometimes you have to defend the right to life for some of the most indefensible of crimes.

Emirates adds Lusaka and Harare in 2012

21 September 2011

Emirates is adding Lusaka, the capital of Zambia, and Harare, the capital city of Zimbabwe, to its African network.

Zambia and Zimbabwe, which share a border with the Victoria Falls, one of the natural wonders of the world, will now be linked with a five times weekly flight from Dubai, starting from 1st February 2012.

Zambia and Zimbabwe will be EK's 20th and 21st African destinations.

The Dubai-Lusaka-Harare service will be operated by an A330-200 aircraft in a three-class configuration.

A must-see for any visitor to Zambia or Zimbabwe is the Victoria Falls, a UNESCO World Heritage site. The 1.7 km wide natural wonder cascades for over 100 metres, making the Falls the largest curtain of water in the world. Both countries also boast a wealth of other breathtaking sights, including world-class national safari parks, and in Zimbabwe's case a nation ruined by greed and held ransom to poverty.

Starting 1st February 2012, EK 713 will depart Dubai on every Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Friday and Sunday at 0925hrs, arriving in Lusaka at 1450hrs. The service will depart Lusaka at 1620hrs, arriving in Harare at 1720. The return flight leaves Harare at 1920, arriving Lusaka at 2020. It departs Lusaka at 2150 and lands in Dubai at 0710hrs the next day.

Making sense of the daily deal.

21 September 2011

"Today only, 84 percent off a massage!"

"Half off all garden tools!"

"47 percent off a family photo!"

These deals are in every city and in every language; not from high street stores but from web site vendors that no one had heard of a few years ago.

The big names are Groupon and LivingSocial in a virtual marketplace that has blossomed over the past three years.

It is not really a new business; newspapers have been providing coupons to clip and use for decades. 

But some observers say that the experience of recent years suggests that the hyper-discounts for which Groupon has become famous might not last. The trouble with the discounting business is that there is little evidence of creating loyal customers. 

The growth of the industry has relied on big volumes and huge discounts offered by over 500 companies and counting. The No. 1 daily-deal site, Groupon has gone from zero to several billion dollars in value in the blink of an eye and has announced plans to issue an IPO in the near future.

Meanwhile, LivingSocial, one of the next largest, is already in 552 daily markets worldwide.

From the businesses' perspective, one of the main goals of offering the deals is to drive repeat business; but many merchants argue that daily-deal "groupies" simply seek the day's most outrageous deal and do not develop any brand loyalty. 

But the success of these companies is not assured. According to the 2010-2011 Daily Deal M&A Activity and Valuation Multiples Report, from CB Insights, the price of acquisitions has been plummeting.

“Since their peak hit just two quarters ago in Q1 2011, the Price per Subscriber and Price per Voucher Sold multiples paid in private company M&A transactions have declined 36% and 40% respectively in Q3 2011,” the report says.

Part of the reason is that there are simply too many companies out there, the report says.

The report could be good news for Groupon, LivingSocial, Google Offers, and Amazon Local. Investors are nervous about throwing more money into this industry right now.

The technical barriers to entry in the daily deal business are low, but scaling the business requires significant amounts of capital. Companies hire armies of sales staff and account managers to develop relationships with merchants, and this is expensive. They also spend large sums on marketing.

The cost of acquiring subscribers who redeem a daily deal has skyrocketed during the past two years. While snagging early adopters who were curious about daily deals initially required little marketing, it now takes more spending to get to remaining consumers and to cut through the noise created by so many competitors.

For example, Groupon, the daily-deals market leader that filed to go public in June, spent about $7.99 to acquire each subscriber who actually redeemed a daily deal in the first quarter of 2010, according to regulatory filings. By the second quarter of 2011, that figure had nearly tripled to $23.46.

Overall, Groupon spent $378.7 million in marketing initiatives in the first half of 2011, up from $35.5 million in the same period a year earlier, according to regulatory filings. Many smaller websites don't have the war chest to compete.

At the same time, daily-deal sites also increasingly have to hire more salespeople to line up coupon offers from local merchants. Groupon has 990 sales employees in North America, up from 201 a year earlier, according to its regulatory filings. LivingSocial, the No. 2 player in the space, has beefed up its sales force to 700 employees from 191 a year ago, said a company spokesman.

Groupon pays sales associates about $35,000 a year, and those salaries can jump to as high as $100,000 with commissions, according to a person familiar with the matter. Smaller sites that typically hire only a handful of sales employees and pay on a commission-only basis are hard-pressed to compete against those compensation packages, industry executives said.

In the USA nearly one-third of all daily-deal sites nationwide—or 170 of 530—have shut down or been sold in 2011. Even big operations such as Facebook Inc. and Yelp Inc. that could capitalize on their large audiences to build a daily-deals business have recently pulled back on the service.

What is clear is that millions of people are buy daily deals each day. The industry will continue to grow and evolve like any other. Daily deals are a recession proof business.

Success in the deals business means getting good deals; deals that are interesting to consumers and useful for merchants. And that means hitting the pavement. Deals might be a flashy new Web 2.0 industry, but it relies largely on a human sales staff knocking on doors, just as much as any old-school publishing business ever did.

It is also not just about charming merchants with a smile and a persuasive tongue. The best deals companies will be the ones that invest in serious analytics to figure out what kinds of deals work best for which kind of merchants. It’s not a one-size-fits-all, just-give-'em-all-50%-off kind of business. The kinds of deals that work best for salons are going to be different than the ones that work for hot air balloon operators. Which makes the sales staff all the more important: They need to sit down with merchants and walk them through how to structure their deals to get the best results.

Groupon gets that. It has a huge number of boots on the ground. According to its revised S-1 filing, 50% of the company’s 9,625 employees as of June 30, or approximately 4,800, were on the sales team. (For comparison, only 380 people were on the technology team.) LivingSocial's staff numbers aren't public, but it also has said in the past that it is hiring sales people by the boatload.

Where are the big guys in this; Google’s big advantage is its insight into your “purchase intent.” It knows what you might be in the market for based on what you search for. Google has long used that insight to power its AdWords business and serve up highly relevant ads. Now it is starting Google Offers to leverage that same capability to serve up highly relevant deals.

As for Amazon, people are used to buying stuff from it, so it doesn’t have to overcome the trust hurdle that a newcomer does. Add to that the fact that Amazon already has everyone's credit cards on file and the fact that it’s an expert in making buying things so simple.

So it’s probably no surprise that, even though Amazon is new to this space (its AmazonLocal product only launched this summer), it’s showing promising signs. Active in only three markets for the full month of August, the business made $1.4 million that month.

It is also a fair bet that Facebook will do something in this space:  Friends’ recommendations will have plenty of influence in getting Facebook users to snap up deals. Facebook has ceased its Deals program for now; but this may be a pause not a cancellation.

The good news - if there is any - you still have to leave you home to take advantage of your coupon; people still need to go to the restaurant, salon or store !

Apple's new UAE online store

20th September 2011

Apple launched its online retail store in the UAE yesterday, undercutting local retailers by up to Dh500 on a high-end Mac laptop.

Residents can now purchase an Apple iPad, iPhone or computer with a credit card online and have them delivered in three days.

Experts said the move would shake the electronics industry in the UAE. The lower are expected to make store-based retailers respond by cutting their prices.

The Apple online store sells versions of the iPad 2, iPhone 4 and Macbook Pro at Dh2,099, Dh2,299 and Dh6,499 respectively.

This is hundreds of dirhams below the prices currently being offered in store and online by Plug-Ins Electronix, Sharaf DG and Carrefour UAE.

Sharaf DG sells each of these products at Dh2,149, Dh2,699 and Dh6,999, Plug-Ins sells the iPad and iPhone 4 in store at Dh2,149 and Dh2,449. Carrefour also sells the iPad 2 at Dh2,149.

Apple will deliver its products from a variety of warehouses around the world and has made its call centre in Ireland available to UAE customers.

The online store will also allow for the customisation of Macs before buying and for free engraving of iPads, iPhones and iPods.

Customisation of Macs has often been an issue for consumers in the UAE. Delays of up to two months with local retailers are common for computers ordered with, for example, extra memory or bigger hard drives.

FlyDubai launches Belgrade in November

19 September 2011

Flydubai will operate four times-a-week direct service to Serbia's White City, Belgrade, from November 10, the Dubai-based budget carrier said Monday.

Flights will depart Dubai's Terminal 2 at 09.10am, landing at Belgrade Nikola Tesla Airport at 11.55am (local time), it said, adding that the return flight departs at 12:40pm arriving in Dubai at 8:45pm.

"We anticipate a strong demand for flights, both from the Serbian community in the UAE as well as travellers looking for a low-cost link into one of the most dynamic cities in the world," Ghaith Al Ghaith, Flydubai's CEO, said in a statement, adding that Serbia has a strong presence in the UAE thanks to a 5,000-strong Serbian expatriate population.

FlyDubai is really extending the duration of its 737s and if this flies as a turnaround it will push the crews to the limit as well.

The Twelve Attributes of a Truly Great Place to Work

19 September 19 Harvard Business Review

Republished here as the list is interesting. Though it seems to me to miss one critical factor - being surrounded by interesting and challenging colleagues; preferably in a diverse workforce with a range of views, experience and backgrounds:

"More than 100 studies have now found that the most engaged employees — those who report they're fully invested in their jobs and committed to their employers — are significantly more productive, drive higher customer satisfaction and outperform those who are less engaged.

But only 20 per cent of employees around the world report that they're fully engaged at work.

It's a disconnect that serves no one well. So what's the solution? Where is the win-win for employers and employees?

The answer is that great employers must shift the focus from trying to get more out of people, to investing more in them by addressing their four core needs — physical, emotional, mental and spiritual — so they're freed, fueled and inspired to bring the best of themselves to work every day.

It's common sense. Fuel people on a diet that lacks essential nutrients and it's no surprise that they'll end up undernourished, disengaged and unable to perform at their best.

Our first need is enough money to live decently, but even at that, we cannot live by bread alone.

Think for a moment about what would make you feel most excited to get to work in the morning, and most loyal to your employer. The sort of company I have in mind would:

1. Commit to paying every employee a living wage. To see examples of how much that is, depending on where you live, go to this site. Many companies do not meet that standard for many of their jobs. It's nothing short of obscene to pay a CEO millions of dollars a year while paying any employee a sum for full time work that falls below the poverty line.
2. Give all employees a stake in the company's success, in the form of profit sharing, or stock options, or bonuses tied to performance. If the company does well, all employees should share in the success, in meaningful ways.
3. Design working environments that are safe, comfortable and appealing to work in. In offices, include a range of physical spaces that allow for privacy, collaboration, and simply hanging out.
4. Provide healthy, high quality food, at the lowest possible prices, including in vending machines.
5. Create places for employees to rest and renew during the course of the working day and encourage them to take intermittent breaks. Ideally, leaders would permit afternoon naps, which fuel higher productivity in the several hours that follow.
6. Offer a well equipped gym and other facilities that encourage employees to move physically and stay fit. Provide incentives for employees to use the facilities, including during the work day as a source of renewal.
7. Define clear and specific expectations for what success looks like in any given job. Then, treat employees as adults by giving them as much autonomy as possible to choose when they work, where they do their work, and how best to get it accomplished.
8. Institute two-way performance reviews, so that employees not only receive regular feedback about how they're doing, in ways that support their growth, but are also given the opportunity to provide feedback to their supervisors, anonymously if they so choose, to avoid recrimination.
9. Hold leaders and managers accountable for treating all employees with respect and care, all of the time, and encourage them to regularly recognize those they supervise for the positive contributions they make.
10. Create policies that encourage employees to set aside time to focus without interruption on their most important priorities, including long-term projects and more strategic and creative thinking. Ideally, give them a designated amount of time to pursue projects they're especially passionate about and which have the potential to add value to the company.
11. Provide employees with ongoing opportunities and incentives to learn, develop and grow, both in establishing new job-specific hard skills, as well as softer skills that serve them well as individuals, and as managers and leaders.
12. Stand for something beyond simply increasing profits. Create products or provide services or serve causes that clearly add value in the world, making it possible for employees to derive a sense of meaning from their work, and to feel good about the companies for which they work.

In more than a decade of working with Fortune 500 companies, I've yet to come across a company that meets the full range of their people's needs in all the ways I've described above. The one that comes closest is Google. I'm convinced it's a key to their success.

How does your company measure up? What's the impact on your performance? Which needs would your company have to meet for you to be more fully engaged?"


Corruption in Thailand begins right at school

19 September 2011 Bangkok Post letters page

"Re: ''In bad taste: tea money'' (BP, Editorial, Sept 15). Parents who worry about their inability to pay sufficient ''tea money'' to get their children into Thailand's so-called elite schools should think themselves fortunate.

What kind of education would they be buying for their kids? Their first lesson would be that it is fine to bribe authorities to get whatever you want, and that money and connections are all that matter.

Secondly, that a good education can be bought at a secret auction, and no doubt the qualifications, too. Is it any wonder that the practice of graft is so deeply embedded in Thai society, when it starts at such a young age?

Students need to understand that learning requires effort, and true rewards come from achieving good results, not by buying them. Ironically, by paying the most, those wealthy parents are giving their kids the worst possible start to their young lives. Perhaps these parents need some schooling, too?

D COOKSON"

And one comment on the BP web site:

"D Cookson. The scary thing about the truth in your letter is that Thai children see corruption and bribery as normal behavior. When many Thai adults especially those with influence behave with impunity what lesson do you think it gives young impressionable minds. The lesson is that money buys you literally everything from a place in a good school to a promotion in the workplace. The government talk about addressing corruption but they have no power against those with the most money who prefer to perpetuate it, as its easy money. Politicians and their families have created an art form in perfecting graft. Reform must start at the top as Thai society has always worked this way. Children will mi mick and adopt the behavior of their elders. So where are the moral and ethical elders? Where pray tell????"

Five years on

19 September 2011

Today is the five year anniversary of the 2006 military coup - and Thailand still suffers from the consequences.

Here is my commentary on the coup as it happened.

And my page of news on the coup from five years ago.

The coup was bloodless and at least in Bangkok was quietly accepted. Sadly the five years that have followed have seen Thai society polarised.

Thailand is not better, fairer, more progressive or competitive. What the coup did was maintain the status quo that retained the privileges, perquisites and inherent advantages in upward mobility for the coup makers and their supporters.

There is no such thing as a good coup. It reverses democracy.

At the time there was a conspicuous silence from civil society, the business community, and Bangkok's middle classes.

Remember that the coup removed a Thaksin government that had been re-elected by a massive landslide in February 2005. The yellow shirts under the People's Alliance for Democracy began to mobilise in August the same year, sporadic and scattered at first, thin in ranks and low on popular appeal.

But Thaksin did enough damage over the next 18 months to ensure there was little opposition to the coup.

The reality is that the Thaksin government was beset with all kinds of infractions, conflicts of interest, human rights violations, and abuses of power.

The Thaksin government had a new focus - the enrichment of his family and cronies. The final mistake took place in Jan 2006 when Thaksin decided to sell his Shin Corp telecommunications conglomerate to Singapore's Temasek Holdings amidst the political turbulence.

This sale became a lightening rod to the anti-Thaksin coalition.

So the coup removed bad government. The trouble is what followed was worse. The generals were in charge. Through coercion and manipulation, the 2007 constitution was rushed through a plebiscite with a bogus ''approve-first, amend-late'' understanding.

The promised December 2007 election did take place - but having tasted government the military were not keen to give up. To its credit, the Surayud government organised the election and left office expeditiously.

The Dec 2007 polls became the turning point of the coup.

Despite the constitutional changes the pro-Thaksin People Power Party won and took power in 2008.

This was not the outcome expected by the coup makers.  Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej was disqualified because he had hosted a cooking show. Truly.

As 2008 progressed the winning party was not allowed to govern because of PAD protests, featuring the takeover of both of Bangkok's main airport ahead of the dissolution of PPP and a ban on its leading politicians.

With the PPP dissolved the majority party became the Democrats who then formed a military supported coalition which was famously brokered in an army barracks.

The rest should not have been a surprise. The disenfranchised red shirts took to the streets in 2009 and 2010 and eventually the military fought back.

Then in July 2011 the pro-Thaksin Pheu Thai Party was returned and we are back to the Thai politics of 2008. Whether the election winners are allowed to rule and whether they can rule with manageable infractions and abuses will determine Thailand's near-term political stability. It is another chance for both Thaksin and his adversaries to come to terms and for Thailand to move ahead.

But recent history suggests more turbulence is ahead.

The 2006 coup failed because Thailand simply cannot reverse the powerful economic, social and political developments that have been unfolding over the past 50 years.

Instead the coup has left Thaksin Shinawatra in a stronger political position than he would have been if the coup had not taken place. The coup has also weakened other establishment figures who were seen as supporters of the coup.

But Thailand remains sufficiently polarised between rich and poor, city and country, yellow and red, that no one should discount more unrest or even another coup.

********************************
See also - Red Shirts remember five year anniversary of Thailand’s military coup – A photo essay

********************************
And this was the Guardian editorial five years ago:

The generals strike
Leader
Thursday September 21, 2006

Thailand's move from the ranks of constitutional monarchies to military dictatorship has been sudden, well-executed and dismaying to those who hoped the country might overcome its severe problems through constitutional means. The prime ministership of Thaksin Shinawatra, a nationalist oligarch who ran the country as if it was his own private business and roused support from his rural powerbase through a well-funded appeal to patriotism, has been decaying for months. His rule did not serve the country well and he should have remained out of office after leaving it briefly following the country's confused general election earlier this year. Instead Thaksin persisted, driven by a mix of arrogance and greed, in the face of opposition in the country's main cities and from many of its established institutions, including the army and the monarchy.
These forces came together in a coup that had the tacit endorsement of the king and which has so far proved both bloodless and popular, at least in Bangkok. Adrift in London and facing the threat of prosecution, Thaksin is now unlikely to return to power, something which will not trouble most Thai democrats. But the manner of his removal pollutes the country's claim to be emerging as one of the world's developed democracies. It is a throwback to a time when the king and his army saw themselves as the guarantors of national stability. Democratic institutions, including parliament, the courts and the constitution, have turned out to have shallow roots, ripped out with ease by the tanks and troops which appeared on the streets of Bangkok. Promises of a return to civilian rule and elections within the next year are no substitute for a political system resilient enough to renew itself without the need to call on the army.

Blame for the crisis lies at Thaksin's door, not just because of the way he profited from his power but because of his systematic undermining of national order. This was most explicit in the south of Thailand, partly Muslim and witness to growing violence, where Thaksin's bull-headed confrontation made the situation worse. The coup leader and army chief, General Sonthi Boonyaratglin, who is Muslim, has called for a different approach, and military and royal concern about Thaksin's record in the south was a factor in his downfall. The opposition Democrat party, which can expect to gain from this week's events, is strong in that part of the country.

But however dubious his record, Thaksin retained the affection of many Thais, especially those who have not profited from the country's breakneck pace of development over the past two decades. The fact that his opponents had to wait for the military to remove him, rather than trust in a second general election which might have taken place before the end of the year, is a sign of this. Opposition democrats who took to the streets in Bangkok earlier this year rather than engage in the first election are also partly responsible for prompting this week's events. However well-intentioned, they too helped destabilise the country.

Without Thaksin's presence and his money, his Thai Rak Thai party is likely to fall apart. It remains to be seen whether he is confident enough to return to Bangkok: the failure of any part of the army to back him suggests he will not. Ultimate authority rests with the Thai king, who has proved his democratic sympathies in past coups and who is likely to hold the army to its promises this time. But he is ageing and increasingly unwell. In the long-term, Thais will not be able to rely upon his presence to untangle the country's political difficulties. The king's son and heir does not appear to have his father's wisdom. The country needs to build democratic institutions that are strong enough to ensure that Thailand's 18th military coup since becoming a constitutional monarchy in 1932 is also the country's last.

Thai agency seeks new probe into death of Reuters cameraman

 17 September 2011 Reuters

"Thai authorities pressed for a new investigation on Friday into the death of Reuters cameraman Hiro Muramoto and 12 other civilians killed during political unrest last year, and said troops may have had a hand in the shootings.

The statement by the Department of Special Investigation (DSI) marked a dramatic reversal from February when the agency's chief concluded the 43-year-old Japanese journalist and others could not have been shot by soldiers.

Muramoto was killed by a high-velocity bullet wound to the chest while covering clashes between "red shirt" protesters and troops in Bangkok's old quarter on April 10. He was among 25 people, including soldiers, who died that night.

Mysterious gunmen clad in black were seen among the red-shirted protesters, firing at troops.

Witness accounts in a preliminary DSI investigation seen by Reuters in December said the fatal shot came from the direction of troops. A witness was quoted as saying he saw "a flash from a gun barrel of a soldier", then watched Muramoto fall after he was shot in the chest while filming the security forces.

But on Feb. 27, DSI Director-General Tharit Pengdit issued a new statement that contradicted the preliminary report, saying the bullet came from an AK-47 assault rifle, which did not match weapons used by soldiers in the area that day.

The Bangkok Post reported that, before Tharit made the claim soldiers were not involved, the army chief of staff had paid him a visit "to complain about an initial department finding". The DSI denied the report.

It was unclear what caused the DSI chief to change position again and assert soldiers may have played a role in civilian deaths -- an extraordinarily sensitive issue in Thailand where the military is extremely powerful and deeply politicised.

"We want the court to be the one who investigates this so that the result can be accepted by all," Tharit told Reuters on Friday. "The DSI has insisted from the beginning that we found soldiers may have been involved in the deaths."

Tharit said his agency would send on Monday the cases of the 13 civilians killed to police, which would then submit the findings to prosecutors, who would bring the cases to Thailand's Criminal Court for a final investigation.

"We welcome this development and have always wanted to see this case fully investigated in a transparent manner. Muramoto-san's family and Reuters colleagues deserve to know how this tragedy occurred and who was behind it," Stephen Adler, editor-in-chief of Reuters News, said in a statement.

One crucial difference between now and February is a change of government and the rise of political leaders with ties to the red-shirt protest movement.

A party backed by red-shirt protesters won parliamentary elections by a landslide in July. Their leader, Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra, is the sister of deposed premier Thaksin Shinawatra, the figurehead of the red-shirt protest movement.

Yingluck's government has ushered in a series of changes to senior positions in several ministries and key institutions, including plans to change the chief of Bangkok's police. The red shirts, whose votes were crucial in her election victory, have long demanded a full investigation into the deaths.

Deputy Prime Minister Chalerm Yoobamrung told reporters on Friday that the deaths of the 13 were "unnatural" and that it was unclear whether troops were involved.

"I want this to be very straightforward and everything is done under the rules of law," Charlerm said.

Muramoto was based in Tokyo and had come to Bangkok to help cover the anti-government red shirt protests from March to mid-May last year. A total 91 people were killed during the unrest, including an Italian photojournalist and several medical workers.

The DSI has identified the cases of Muramoto and 12 other civilians, killed over the course of the unrest, for its initial investigation.

Then Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva, whose government was backed by senior generals and the royalist establishment, repeatedly blamed the black-clad gunmen for civilian deaths despite witness accounts of soldiers opening fire with live ammunition on protesters."


Foreign Investors Turn Wary as Bangkok Starts Dabbling in the Financial System

15 September 2011 - New York Times
(Note this is just the start - this government has only been in office for six weeks. Thaksin gives the orders, Yingluck is marginalised and Chalerm does - and appears to have license to do, whatever he wants. Remember he is only the deputy interior minister but he gets all the headlines. This raid on the two brokerages got little play in the Thai medai who are all too fixated in a likely pardon for Thaksin and on the Shinawatra family's visits to Cambodia.)


"The confusion of Thai politics can even turn insiders into outsiders.

In the past, as the politicians played their games, foreign investors joked about the Italy of Asia and made little effort to understand the bewildering tangle of allegiances.

But the slowing economy and regional currency turmoil have put the country's politics under the intense scrutiny of creditors who are frightened by what they have found.

With 23 prime ministers, 17 coups and 15 constitutions since 1946, the country has not been a model of political stability. Nonetheless, because of consistent policies laid out by government technocrats, investors confidently poured huge amounts of their money into the country in the past decade.

Now, as an economic slowdown and regional currency turmoil throw the country into the international spotlight, this traditional political chaos could delay recovery.

"Today's political struggles are not that different from the past," said Mark Sundberg, Hong Kong-based chief economist for Salomon Brothers Inc. "But the country now has greater vulnerability to short-term capital flows, and its policy mix has been brought into focus."

Thailand's estimated $90 billion in overseas debt has created what Mr. Sundberg calls a structural dependency on foreign money. Much of that debt is short-term and soon due to roll over.

"Banks are really studying every political move now," said the country manager of an American bank that is one of Thailand's largest creditors.

"It is tough for those who don't have a presence in the country to second-guess what is going on here, and events like the raid on the brokerage houses last week don't put the country in a good light."

Last week, the police raided two foreign brokerage houses searching for the source of rumors that five commercial banks would close.

The raids, which shocked the financial community, have been dismissed by political observers as a melodramatic stunt typical of the deputy interior minister, Chalerm Yoobamrung, who ordered them.

A Jaguar-driving former police officers with a taste for Versace shirts, Mr. Chalerm is a Bangkok-based politician who has long wielded power beyond his party's numerical standing, serving in most Thai governments over the past decade.

In the November election, his Muan Chon Party won just two seats, yet the six-party coalition awarded him a cabinet post. He has many loyal well-placed friends in the police department but scant patience for those in his way.

"He is like a stick that the politicians wave at barking dogs to make them shut up," said Montri Chenvidyakarn, president of the Training Institute of the Association of Securities Cos. "In the Thai context, nobody takes his antics seriously."

Foreign investors, however, were not amused to have the stick waved at them. "I just do not understand how they could do this," a Japanese analyst said. "It is crazy."

Since the raids took place, foreign analysts and brokers have been wary of being quoted for fear of reprisals.

Another recent intrusion of politics into economic management took place in mid-May, when remarks by one of the prime minister's advisers triggered speculators to attack the baht.

"With freer capital flows, Thailand now has less control over its destiny," a diplomat said. "The markets can punish the country more readily for its errors and political hijinks."

After more than a decade of tightly pegging its currency, Thailand floated the baht on July 2. Since then, it has fallen by as much as 15 percent in value against the dollar. The baht fell to a new low on Wednesday. (Page 15)

Politics, some analysts warned, have also infected the country's financial institutions. These analysts cite the fraud-tainted scandal at the Bangkok Bank of Commerce, the slothful pace of mergers among the troubled finance companies and the damaging policy debate over the adjustment of the baht.

"In the early 1980s, when the country last faced economic crisis, the technocrats from the central bank, finance ministry and National Economic and Social Development Board all worked together," said Arporn Chewakrengkrai, chief economist Deutsche Morgan Grenfell Thailand.

Ms. Arporn, a former technocrat, said many of the best and brightest have left government for higher paying jobs in the private sector.


Phuket's decline

15 September 2011

Let's be honest - Phuket is tired, drab and for the most part hugely unattractive.

And it is a tragedy. The island's geography and climate should make for a great holiday destination. Mountains, sandy beaches, sunshine.

Walking the streets of Patong the strongest smell is of walls and telephone booths used as makeshift latrines. The loudest noise is from the touts for tuktuks, souvenir shops, massage shops and dvd sellers.

Tourists are not guests. They are prey. A tuktuk will set you back a minimum of Baht 200. In Bangkok a metered taxi starts at Baht 35. The sidewalks are almost impassable. Touts stand outside tailors trying to shake the hand of their new best friend and drag them into their store.

There are two main towns; old Phuket is the main Thai city; it is not a tourist destination. However, its old town with a mix of Chinese and Thai architecture has some appeal and there are signs of new coffee shops, bars, small guest houses and arts/craft shops.

Patong is where most of the tourists are. The beach could be great - except for i) powerboats and wave boats that are far too close to shore and ii) the amount of garbage that is washed up onto the beach.

We hired a car to drive around the island - Karon and Kata are looking really run down and old. In may be the quiet season but many places seemed to be shuttered for long term closure.

Nai Harn beach is pretty and hosts the Phuket Yatch Club hotel - but there is basically nothing else there and the area around the beach has become scrub land.

To the north of Patong Kamala Beach has some new development and Surin beach is pleasant enough. The trouble with all these remoter beaches is that at some stage you will want to get away and explore. There is little to see and do beyond the beach and the hotel that you stay in.

If you want to play golf be warned - Phuket has the most expensive golf courses in Thailand - and at some a cart will be compulsory in addition to your caddy. There is much better value golf in Bangkok, Hua Hin and Chiang Mai.

The police were out on Beach Rd in Patong on Tuesday night - set up at the junction with Bangla Road. It is not an issue for them that touts are harrassing tourists to go to ping-pong shows. The police are there to get their few hundred baht from every tourist without either a helmet or a proper license. It does not matter that you barely see a Thai in a helmet in Phuket town. Now of course wearing a helmet makes a whole lot of sense; but lets apply the rules evenly.

Bangla Road is pretty depressing - the good news is that Patong's nightlife is largely confined to this one street and its side streets. And there is much new building undearway along the street which suggests it is prospering. The ping pong shows are in upstairs bars where I assume you get suitably ripped off on drinks prices. Most of the bars are open air, noisy and harmless. Some of the staff are working towards their pensions.

Beach Road really could be so much nicer - the tsunami of 2004 did give the city a chance to rebuild a new Patong; instead they recreated the old one.

The highlight on Bangla was Wednesday night's Elvis impersonation - with a strong backing band including a full brass section. Good fun.

Be careful of over-priced seafood. Make sure you are given what you ordered. As for other restaurants - the best are probably in the hotels but are pricier. There is a decent restaurants street in the JungCeylon mall - including a Wine Connection.

Officially tourist arrivals to Phuket during the current “low season” are actually up year-on-year thanks largely to the increased number of direct flights from Australia and China, according to the Phuket Tourist Association (PTA).

The improved performance was in large part due to strong arrival figures thanks to an increased number of direct flights from Australia.

China has become an important “new” market with non-stop service now available from 10 major cities. But they are not long stay visitors. My guess is that they are there for 2 or 3 nights; usually herded around in tour buses to see what their guides are paid to let them see.

In addition to major cities such as Beijing and Shanghai, which have had direct links to Phuket for some time, Chinese tourists can now fly direct to Phuket from places including Xi’an, Chengdu and Chongqing.

There are also many visitors from Korea, Russia and Indian. And a large number from the GCC nations. Patong has two "Dubai" restaurants. And shisha is widely available.

Flood hazard

15 September 2011

The rising water is threat enough. But worse. A pack of crocodiles has escaped from a flooded farm near Pattaya. The animals escaped the Million Year Stone Park and Crocodile Farm in Pattaya, 100 kilometres south-east of Bangkok, after heavy rain triggered a flood that washed through the tourist attraction Monday.

"We don't know how many are still missing but I'm confident that we can catch them all because these animals aren't used to finding food for themselves," farm spokesman Suthawudh Temthab said.

About 100 employees were sent to hunt the crocodiles down.

The largest of the recaptured reptiles, identified as Jao Yai, weighed more than 400 kilograms and was three metres long.

"After four nights and four days, we have managed to recapture 29 crocodiles, but some are still missing," said park chief Suan Panomwattanakul.

He said anyone providing useful information on the animals' whereabouts would be given Bt5,000.


Flooding has upset the lives of about 700,000 people across 23 provinces.

To date the flood-related death toll had reached 87.


Beijing's new airport plans outshine Dubai

9 September 2011

In 1994, when I first visited, Beijing Airport was on old tired terminal, domestic flights on old Russian planes and a handful of flights from Hong Kong and the region.

Beijing's Capital Airport is now 3 runways, 3 terminals (the third is massive) and will soon be full.

This all makes sense. Imagine how air travel unites the USA with only 1/4 the population of China. Imagine huge hubs like Dallas and Chicago and then imagine their Chinese equivalent.

So it is no surprise that Beijing is moving to overtake London as the world's busiest aviation hub with the construction of a third airport that could have as many as nine runways.

The new mega-project is part of a huge expansion of China's airline industry.

NACO (part if the DHV Group) won the design competition. The location appears to be in the rural district of Daxing, about 31 miles (50km) south-west of the city centre.

On the roadside the Guardian has seen labourers building an elaborate 10m-high steel and concrete map of the world topped by giant red characters declaring: "Construction of a New Airport City for the Capital."

It was only four years ago that the existing Capital airport in the north of the city opened a huge third terminal ahead of the Beijing Olympics. Designed by the British architect, Norman Foster, it was then the world's biggest airport building, with more floor space than all five Heathrow terminals combined. But it has filled faster than expected due to the rapid growth of China's economy.

Last year, the airport handled 73.9 million passengers. By 2015, this is expected to rise to 90 million – 12 million more than it was designed for.

A plan for the new airport (shown in Airports of the world magazine) shows six parallel runways as well as two more at 90 degrees as well as two terminal complexes and two midfield satellites. The airport is planned to open in 2017 and will have a capacity of 130mppa. This could be expanded to as many as 200 mppa.

Once completed, the new airport will be connected to a new expressway and high-speed train line that will speed travelers to the centre of the city in 30 minutes. Today, however, Daxing is more than an hour's drive away.

Locals live in white-washed, one-storey brick homes, many of which are scruffily daubed with phone-numbers advertising well-digging companies. Incomes there are low – about 1,200 yuan (£105) to 2,500 (£215) per month. But expectations are high for the new airport and the money it might bring.

"Everything you can see will be airport," said Cui Hongxian, a farmer who owns a quarter hectare of land, with confidence. "We haven't negotiated yet, but I've heard they will start building next year."

Many others are hoping for economic benefits - and not just in Beijing. The government's latest five-year economic plan calls for the expansion of eight international airports, the construction of many more new smaller airports and feasibility studies for new aviation hubs in Chengdu, Qingdao and Xiamen. It has also promised to open up private aviation, which will allow China's mega-rich to splurge on luxury private jets as well as their Lambourghinis,. Rolls Royces and Aston Martins.

Meanwhile Dubai's new airport has shruk from six to five runways. Only one runway is open at present for freighter operations. There may be some basic passenger operations there next year but with a new concourse to terminal three and a new terminal four to be built at the existing Dubai international airport it will be some time before we see Dubai's new airport fully operational.

O'Emirates

8 September 2011

Emirates has announced it is to fly daily from Dublin to Dubai from next year.

The airline will commence services on 9 January onboard an Airbus A330-200. It will leave Dubai at 0700 and arrive in the Irish capital at 1130, while the return flights leaves Dublin at 1255 landing in Dubai at 0025.

"Dublin will be our 29th route in Europe and Emirates' customers in Ireland who currently travel through some of our UK gateways will be able to fly non-stop to our industry leading hub in Dubai and conveniently connect onwards to our broadening route network," said His Highness Sheikh Ahmed bin Saeed Al Maktoum, chairman and chief executive of Emirates Airline and Group. "We see strong potential in Ireland through its industry, technology, tourism and the huge number of Irish nationals living overseas”.

The announcement comes after a new passenger terminal was opened at Dublin airport.

Etihad already flies to Dublin from Abu Dhabi.

Gaddafi’s and west’s love of the big lie

7 September 2011 The Financial Times By Kishore Mahbubani

An interesting read - though the writer forgets that however flawed western democracy may be voters can still remove unpopular governments - something that is impossible in many middle east or asian countries; including some that espouse democracy.....

"Dictators are falling. Democracies are failing. A curious coincidence? Or is it, perhaps, a sign that something fundamental has changed in the grain of human history. I believe so.

How do dictators survive? They tell lies. Muammer Gaddafi was one of the biggest liars of all time. He claimed that his people loved him. He also controlled the flow of information to his people to prevent any alternative narrative taking hold. Then the simple cell phone enabled people to connect. The truth spread widely to drown out all the lies that the colonel broadcast over the airwaves. Similarly in Egypt and Tunisia, the regimes lost control of the narrative. In short, technology has undermined dictators’ ability to lie to their people.

So why are democracies failing at the same time? The simple answer: democracies have also been telling lies. Now we know, for example, that the eurozone project was created on a big lie. All the major European politicians assured their publics that the contradiction between monetary union and fiscal independence would be resolved by insisting on fiscal discipline. Any eurozone member that violated the 3 per cent budget deficit rule would be punished.

All this was a big lie. When France and Germany breached the 3 per cent rule in 2003, nothing happened. This then opened the doors for others to break the rule (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain). Even worse, Greece began lying to its European partners from the very beginning. To be fair to Greece, its European partners knew Greece was lying.

The people of Europe went along with the big lie as long as they did not have to pay for it. The great western financial crisis of 2008-09 changed everything. Bankers had to be rescued. Taxpayers had to pay the price. Foolishly, the Irish government took on the liabilities of Irish banks, passing the burden to Irish citizens. Today, the German taxpayers balk at having to pay the price for rescuing an economic experiment that rested on a big lie.

Europe is not alone. The American people are equally angry with their government. No US leaders dare to tell the truth to the people. All their pronouncements rest on a mythical assumption that “recovery” is around the corner. Implicitly, they say this is a normal recession. But this is no normal recession. There will be no painless solution. “Sacrifice” will be needed and the American people know this.

But no American politician dares to utter the word “sacrifice”. Painful truths cannot be told. And there is an even more fundamental reason why they cannot tell the truth. In theory, a “government of the people, by the people, for the people, shall not perish from the earth” in America. In practice this is a big lie. Take the US budget process as exhibit A. In theory, the government collects taxes to deliver public goods to the population. In practice, the US budget has been hijacked by all kinds of special interest groups. This is why the US stimulus plan failed. A small portion of it went to help create jobs. Most of it was absorbed by various special interests. As Harvard economist Jeffrey Miron says: “The stimulus was so poorly run that stimulus money wound up going to prisoners and dead people, bridges to nowhere, and useless government buildings.”

In short, the US political system is dangerously flawed. The American people feel in their bones that something has gone awfully wrong. They know that the financial elite is in bed with the political elite. The interests of the banks will be taken care of; the interests of the people will not. Yet while all this is happening, politics is on autopilot.

Few American politicians seem aware that the whole world was shocked that a “deal” was reached to get America’s finances in order without raising a single tax. When S&P delivered the natural verdict that this would not work, the messenger, as usual, was crucified.

Most people know what is happening. Hence, there is a simple way politicians can regain trust: tell the truth, even if it hurts. But they won’t until they learn that lying doesn’t work – it is not just dictators like Col Gaddafi who never will."

The writer is Dean, Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore, and author of “The New Asian Hemisphere: the Irresistible Shift of Global Power to the East”

We betrayed our values with torture

6 September 2011 Dominic Lawson in The Independent

The 10th anniversary of the destruction of the World Trade Centre towers by two hijacked commercial airliners should be a moment of unambiguous moral clarity. In a way, it still is. Through special newspaper supplements and TV documentaries we are reminded (as if we ever could forget) of the horror of that beautiful sunny morning in New York City: the sight of office workers jumping to certain death as a merciful release from incineration; the desperate messages as husbands and wives, parents and children, made what they knew would be their final messages to those they loved and would never see again.

Yet this commemoration is mixed with something else; the feeling that the heroism of the public response to the horror of that day has been foully polluted by what has been done in our name to prevent a second 9/11. This is encapsulated by the revelations from documents discovered in abandoned buildings in Tripoli, appearing to show the complicity of the British Government in the rendition of a suspected Islamist terrorist from Hong Kong, into the hands of Colonel Gaddafi's interrogators.

Yesterday, another former member of the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group (LIFG), Abdelhakim Belhaj, now commander of the anti-Gaddafi militia in Tripoli, called for the US and Britain to apologise for their role in his rendition to Tripoli and torture there. Belhaj is now one of the officially designated good guys, benefiting from Nato's air bombardment of Gaddafi's command and control centres, not to mention undercover aid and advice from Britain's SAS. Yet, as has been confirmed by other "liberated" documents published by the Sunday Times during the weekend, the British government had previously instructed the SAS to train the Khamis Brigade, the elite force Gaddafi assigned to counter the threat from his internal enemies.

This, of course, was all part of the "war on terror". Libya, under Gaddafi, had originally formed part of George W Bush's so-called axis of evil – hostile states with programmes to develop weapons of mass destruction. Britain's Secret Intelligence Service (SIS) played the main role in persuading Gaddafi, through its links with the Libyan intelligence chief, Mousa Kousa, to relinquish its WMD programme (such as it was). Most significantly, the Libyans then revealed to us just how the Pakistani nuclear weapons scientist AQ Khan had been offering to sell to sundry appalling regimes the materials needed to develop WMD.

The trouble was that the then prime minister, Tony Blair, exhilarated by this solitary foreign policy success in the "war on terror", proceeded to treat Gaddafi not as the thug and borderline lunatic he remained, but as if he were a civilising force in the region. The Colonel, meanwhile, with his customary cunning, played up the threat to his regime from the LIFG, and thus gained – as it now seems – our assistance in the capture and torture of his domestic opponents. The fact that they were often self-proclaimed jihadists made this all the more convincing to Washington and Whitehall.

Grotesque as Blair's smarming over the man ultimately responsible for the blowing up of Pan Am Flight 103 over Lockerbie was, one can at least appreciate the strategic arguments behind this wooing of a dictator. Just as in the Cold War, when the West supped with some pretty unscrupulous types in the fight against Soviet militarism, the full details involved in policies adopted in the interests of national security appear neither moral nor necessary when exposed to the light.

Yet, for all the excesses of the Cold War, we on the winning side never countenanced torture. Indeed, that is one reason why we won. By embracing the Helsinki process, which promoted the protection of human rights as an integral part of the struggle, the Western nations attained a sense of moral leadership which was deeply demoralising to the Soviet politburo. As it became increasingly clear that they, with their "psychiatric hospitals" for dissidents (the urban modernist successor to the Gulag), required mental torture to persuade the unconverted, the intellectual confidence drained away from those involved in the export of Soviet-style communism.

It is in this context that one should see the signing by President Ronald Reagan of the United Nations convention against torture, which came into force in 1987. It was in the clearest breach of this document that President George W Bush, urged on by his deputy Dick Cheney, authorised the use of torture by CIA officers on captured al-Qa'ida members – notably by the process known as "waterboarding". (This method of simulated – but all too real – drowning was practised during the Second World War by some Japanese officers against captured American pilots: the perpetrators were tried and executed as war criminals.)

As is well known, Bush and Cheney managed to obtain a legal opinion by an assistant attorney general for the office of the legal counsel at the US Justice Department, one Jay Bybee, to the effect that waterboarding (and other so-called "enhanced interrogation methods") did not constitute torture, and that therefore the US was not in breach of its treaty obligations, or its constitution.

The Bybee memorandum declared that an interrogation method amounted to torture only if "the physical pain is of an intensity which accompanies serious physical injury such as death or organ failure". This novel and deliberately unverifiable definition is well in excess of that provided in the treaty signed by Ronald Reagan: "Torture means any act by which severe pain or suffering, whether physical or mental, is intentionally inflicted on a person for ... obtaining information at the instigation of or with the consent or acquiescence of a public official".

The Bush administration argued that Reagan could not have envisaged the circumstances prevailing in the US in the wake of 9/11 and in particular the fact that America's enemy would not be the regular army of a recognised state. However, article 2.2 of the convention states: "No exceptional circumstances whatsoever, whether a state of war or a threat of war, internal political instability, or any other public emergency, may be invoked as a justification for torture."

In his memoirs published last week, Dick Cheney again argues that his "enhanced interrogation techniques" at Guantanamo Bay produced confessions that saved the lives of Americans (and Britons). That is his opinion. What is a fact is that this policy acted like no other in recruiting young men to al-Qa'ida. As a US officer who personally conducted hundreds of prisoner interrogations in Iraq wrote (under the assumed name of Major Alexander) in his book How To Break A Terrorist: "The reason why foreign fighters joined al-Qa'ida in Iraq was overwhelmingly because of abuses at Guantanamo and Abu Ghraib and not Islamic ideology."

In other words, it was by betraying the ideals which both America and Britain are meant to promote and defend, that we mark the 10th anniversary of 9/11 not just with renewed sympathy for the victims, but a sense of shame that we have not honoured them.

Managing the swiss franc

6 September 2011

It is a risky strategy in volatile markets but the Swiss National Bank seems determined to devalue the swiss franc which fell more than 9 per cent against the euro on Tuesday after the country’s central bank surprised markets by setting a minimum exchange rate target and saying it was ready to buy foreign currency in unlimited quantities if necessary.

The euro climbed 9.5 per cent to SFr1.2158, higher than the SFr1.20 minimum exchange rate target set by the Swiss National Bank in its effort to slow the franc’s rapid appreciation.

The SNB said it would enforce the minimum rate with the “utmost determination and with unlimited quantities of foreign currency”.

Investors had pushed the euro to a series of fresh record highs against the franc as they looked for havens amid the volatility caused by eurozone debt crisis. This had driven the SNB to intervene in the market in August, causing the euro to surge from a low of SFr1.0094 on August 9 to just below SFr1.20 on August 29.

But eurozone debt concerns had pushed the franc higher again, and just before today’s action, it had been at SFr1.020 versus the single currency.

The SNB’s action may spark fears of a new round of currency wars.

Understanding currency markets has become complex particularly for the US dollar but also for the world's other major currencies which seem to be in a competition to devalue. The problems are global and the markets seem to value the US$ as the worst of a bad lot.

Go figure; The US dollar is hit by political deadlock and rising odds of a US recession.

Japan has even weaker political leadership and the highest debt levels in the world.

The euro has no clear political leadership; a Greek debt default looks ever more likely and their is little goodwill in Europe to Greece whose austerity program angers its people while falling short of eurozone demands. Yet the euro still buys US$1.42.

Against the dollar, the Swiss franc was down 7.8 per cent to SFr0.8480.

The US has encouraged this revaluation of the US$. The nation needs to grow through exports and a lower dollar helps.

But the Japanese are desperately trying to weaken the yen. The swiss are doing the same to their franc. And the euro is exposed.

Currencies will remain complex and volatile for some time to come.

It's out with the old, in with the new for Nok Air cabin crews

6 September 2011
The Bangkok Post

The chance of being served by a cabin attendant older than 30 aboard Nok Air is already close to nil, with passengers most likely to be attended by a stewardess in her early 20s.

The budget carrier, whose cabin crews average 26 years old, embodies the growing trend among regional airlines, which are shortening the working life of their onboard staff and replacing them with younger ones.

Airlines across the region are recruiting fresh, young and good-looking faces to do the job, lowering minimum age requirements and imposing short contract terms.

For instance, Nok Air stipulates applicants should not be over age 25, while 24 is the maximum for Thai applicants at Taiwan's EVA Air as well as Thai Smiles, the regional offshoot planned by Thai Airways International (THAI).

In its most recent recruitment round in Bangkok ending last week, EVA even required female applicants to be single.

Much to the displeasure of cabin attendant unions, airlines, particularly in Asia, are grounding older cabin attendants, especially females, and replacing them with younger ones primarily to rejuvenate brand image and appeal to passengers.

Analysts say airlines also want to cash in on the energy, enthusiasm and dedication that are normally associated with youth in order to drive service efficiency and project a better impression on passengers, not to mention reduce salary expenses.

But many bigger legacy airlines with state-controlled status or powerful unions are prohibited from pursuing such an approach, although THAI can still ground female cabin attendants at age 45.

"This has nothing to do with sexist attitudes, but rather marketing," said Patee Sarasin, Nok Air's chief executive.

"We want to give Nok Air a dynamic lifestyle image while living up to passengers' expectations of being served by fresh, friendly and efficient staff."

The carrier's working cabin attendants range in age from 21-29, which puts it in the running for youngest stewardesses.

A Nok Air cabin crew is given a three-year employment term, with three-year extensions on a case-by-case basis if they prove able to sustain their work standard and looks.

Crews then "retire" to other airlines, which has been the policy ever since the budget airline took to the skies eight years ago.

"Pretty girls who are not very nice due to maybe big egos and ugly ones who may have beautiful characters can become Nok Air cabin attendants. What we do is combine the best of the two _ beautiful girls with nice personalities," said Mr Patee.

He said the result has been that Nok Air receives very few complaints from passengers.

Another Nok Air executive said among those that are received, the most serious involve stewardesses not smiling enough.

The age limits and short employment contracts have never proved a barrier to attracting new recruits for Nok Air.

More than 2,000 applicants vied for 41 positions in Nok Hunt #12, the most recent recruitment round.

The previous round saw 4,000 girls competing for 25 slots.

"We've never had any complaints about the terms of employment. Applicants are aware of the criteria and willingly accept them," said Mr Patee.

He said upon leaving, management helps them to find jobs at international airlines wanting trained personnel.

"If we retired them at age 30 or above, the opportunity of finding new jobs at other airlines would be more difficult," Mr Patee added.

Glamour in the Skies

6 September 2011 New York Times

Judging from the popularity of the Broadway show “Boeing Boeing” and plans for a television series based on the world of Pam Am stewardesses, the public seems to long for the days when airlines prided themselves on their flight attendants and the pampering they provided.

Those days are long gone for most carriers. But some long-haul airlines are betting that service that harks back to the glory days of flying will give them an edge.

Emirates Airline is one of them. The airline, one of the fastest growing carriers in the world, plays a crucial role in making Dubai the center of a network that links the West and the East. It is using the image of an Emirates flight attendant — her smiling face beneath the signature red hat — on its Web site, on advertisements and even on duty-free shopping bags to make the point, as one airline executive put it, that the service provided by Emirates is of “the utmost significance.”

“It is what we are judged on more than anything else,” said the executive, Terry Daly, a senior vice president at the airline.

Shashank Nigam, chief executive of SimpliFlying, which provides branding advice to airlines and airports, said in an e-mail that delivering a level of cabin service and high product quality “gives Emirates a sustainable competitive advantage.” He added, “For an airline providing mainly long-haul flights, the in-flight experience becomes supremely important.”

Emirates is one of a half dozen airlines, including Virgin Atlantic and Singapore, that cultivate an elegant image for their cabin crew. Because Emirates is growing so quickly, it is in constant need of more flight attendants.

So far, it has had little trouble recruiting them from around the world. “It’s a fun, glamorous job,” said Nicole Domett, chief executive of Travel Careers and Training in Auckland, New Zealand, who has sent a few students to Emirates. “For those who have that confidence and thrill of adventure, I mean, wow, it’s really exciting.”

Mona Issa, for instance, was a doctor in Egypt before joining Emirates. “The way people look at you when you say, ‘I work for Emirates,’ ” she said, “It’s magic. Everyone will treat you with respect.”

Blake Celestino just joined the airline from Australia, while Maurine Moraa of Kenya decided to quit her job working for a nongovernmental organization to fly for Emirates. The job has also been a safety net for people like Mohamed Jaber, a 31-year-old American who was laid off from JPMorgan Chase in the economic downturn.

Newly hired cabin attendants have just over a month to earn an international safety certificate while learning how to apply makeup flawlessly and turn an airplane trolley into an attractive display of duty-free products.

To accommodate the 60 to 120 recruits who arrive each week, the training center runs 16 hours a day. For the first few days, students just get acclimated to the blazing heat and ubiquitous sand. They live in an apartment complex in an area of Dubai where camels graze near the parking lots. Catherine Baird, the senior vice president for cabin crew training, said that when the trainees see the camels, it sinks in that they are a long way from home.

Ms. Baird is equal parts cheerleader and mother superior. “We know you can do this job,” she tells them at a morning assembly shortly after they arrive, “because you are brilliant.” But she is also tough, if, for instance, she sees a student in uniform with her long hair loose.

“We don’t want anything to be too distracting from the hat, from the logo,” said a training manager, Helen Roxburgh, of the signature hat with the silky cream-colored scarf that is evocative of the Arabic veil.

Ms. Roxburgh must teach students the rules regarding the most minute dressing and grooming details. Acceptable shades of hair dye? No more than two shades from one’s natural hair color. Tattoos? None that can show while wearing the uniform. When to button the suit jacket? All the time.

The trainees also get a primer on the travel industry, learning about everything from loyalty programs to duty-free merchandise. “Many people think that to become an Emirates flight attendant is about pushing a trolley up and down the aisle and pouring tea and coffee,” Mr. Daly said. “It’s way more complex than what people think.”

Emergency procedures are taught in a full-motion cabin simulator that is more expensive than the static training cabins used by most airlines. Kellie White, the safety training manager, said students need to know what an emergency looks, sounds and feels like.

“They’ve had an experience that mimics the real thing,” Ms. White said of the cabin that rocks, pows, bangs and mists. The day Ms. Celestino practiced water landings by jumping into the swimming pool below the school’s training airplane, the water was uncomfortably cold, a reminder that the real thing will not be a day at the beach.

This year, Emirates plans to add 2,500 flight attendants to its roster of 13,000 to work on the new Airbus A380 jumbo jets that will soon be delivered. The airline must also replace flight attendants who leave. The average time on the job is just 4.3 years, a result of the rule requiring them to live in Dubai, Ms. Baird said. The high turnover is a challenge, but it also has its benefits, she said.

“We want to have a balance of both. We want to keep our experience and our maturity because you invest so much in it. But we want to have some movement because that’s where you get the energy.”

Ms. Domett, who runs the Auckland flight crew school, said it was critical that flight attendants felt that their job was valued by the airline. “I don’t think that the American flight attendants feel it’s a really glamorous job,” she said. “Americans are fantastic at service, but on an aircraft, it’s not the same.”

Knowing that every job eventually loses its luster, Emirates has one cost-free strategy for sustaining enthusiasm. The pilots and flight attendants are required to walk through the airport in one large attention-getting group, much as they do in a scene in the movie “Catch Me if You Can.” It is a head-turning display of retro pizazz that promotes the flight attendants and reinforces to these employees that much of the airline’s reputation is entrusted to their care.

Top ten safest airlines

1 September 2011

The Geneva-based Air Transport Rating Agency (ATRA) has named what it considers to be the ten safest airlines in the world. These are mainly American and European carriers, which makes the ranking quite different from those focusing on customer service and usually dominated by Asian and Middle Eastern airlines.

Indeed, the Sydney Morning Herald points out that no airline is in both the ATRA top ten and the top ten in the Skytrax awards, which recognise “front-line product and service standards”.

ATRA came into being earlier this year, and this is the first rating in what it intends to be an annual series. It compiled its list not only from historic accident rates, but by assessing airlines on 15 criteria such as net financial result, average fleet age, in-house maintenance capability and dedicated full-flight simulators. It trumpets a similarity between its technique and that used by the World Health Organisation.

It is interesting to consider how to respond to the rating. Would anyone choose, say, British Airways over Singapore Airlines because of the former's place in ATRA's list? After all, Singapore is considered a safe carrier. Flyers might, though, choose Singapore ahead of BA for its service. I suspect passengers are more used to the notion that the world's leading airlines offer varying degrees of comfort, than that they offer varying degrees of safety. ATRA's work might change that, but it's the accidents that stick in people's minds.

ATRA's ten safest airlines (
in alphabetical order): Air France-KLM, AMR Corporation (American Airlines, American Eagles), British Airways, Continental Airlines, Delta Air Lines, Japan Airlines, Lufthansa, Southwest Airlines, United Airlines, US Airways.

Emirates 777 continued flight after loud bang, messages

31 August 2011
Flight Global

The US National Transportation Safety Board revealed in a preliminary report issued 30 August that an Emirates Boeing 777-200ER crew continued a 5h flight from Moscow's Domodedovo airport to Dubai on 5 March after hearing a "loud bang" and receiving several error messages on departure.

Pilots of Flight EK 132 (A6-EMH) reported the incident after landing at Dubai, according to the General Civil Aviation Authority (GCAA) of the United Arab Emirates, the authority handling the investigation.

"Following the bang a number of status messages were annunciated, these messages occurred over a 16 minute time as per the Boeing AHM (airplane health management) data," the report stated.

Messages indicated a problem with the right Rolls-Royce Trent 800 engine, and included a thrust asymmetry compensation message that is issued when the flight control computer automatically uses rudder input counter the yaw effects of a failed engine.

Four additional messages were received on departure, followed by two AHM messages after landing.

Flightglobal's ACAS database shows that the 14-year-old aircraft is owned by Veling and has Trent 884-17 engines, members of the Trent 800 family. As of 31 June, the aircraft had accumulated 61,581 cycles and 12,945h, according to ACAS.

Inspection of the aircraft in Dubai revealed "a large section" of the right engine's inboard fan duct and thrust reverser were missing, starting at the trailing edge and ripping forward.

Overall, officials estimated that 2.8-3.7m2 (30-40m2) section of engine covering to be missing, along with the primary exhaust nozzle outer skin. The primary nozzle inner skin had been "holed in several locations at the 12 to 1 o'clock position," the report stated.

External to the engine, the one tyre on the main landing gear "was observed to have a large cut to the sideway" of approximately 36cm (14in), officials said. Examination of the aircraft and engine was to continue but the results have not yet been posted.

The report does not discuss what procedures the Emirates crew followed after hearing the bang and receiving the AHM annunciations or whether the aircraft should have been returned to Domodedovo.

But the very fact that the NTSbindings of the report are a pretty big hint that continuing this flight was imprudent.

On 22 August, an Emirates Boeing 777-300, registration A6-EMU performing flight EK-60 from Hamburg (Germany) to Dubai (United Arab Emirates), was enroute at 35,000 feet about 20nm east of Rzeszow (Poland) when the crew decided to divert to Vienna (Austria) (distances: Rzeszow 20nm, Krakow 110nm, Warsaw 155nm, Budapest 200nm, Vienna 240nm) due to problems with the left hand engine (a Rolls Royce Trent 895)

Topless air hostesses and champagne pool parties

31 August 2011
The Daily Mail

British Airways bosses fear having to scrap lucrative flights because of mounting complaints about raucous cabin crew parties at luxury hotels. Now BA has warned its captains to control their crews during overnight stops – or the airline may be forced to abandon at least one route.

The problem is particularly acute on routes crewed by young recruits – so-called ‘mixed fleet’ which was at the heart of the recent BA industrial dispute. A BA source said: ‘Mixed fleet crews are basically kids of 18 and 20 years old, in their first jobs on pretty low pay, who think it’s a wonderful life staying in posh hotels.

‘They pilfer champagne from the aircraft to drink in the crew hotels because buying their own drinks in a five-star hotel is too expensive. Then they run amok, holding wild room parties and going topless in the pool.’

Crews on long-haul flights to the Kenyan capital Nairobi have been told the route could become ‘financially unviable’ unless they rein in their behaviour.

But in an internal memo sent to BA captains recently, a manager warns: ‘We continue to receive complaints from our management team at our crew hotel in NBO [Nairobi] regarding the behaviour of some of our crews. ‘In the current security environment, the current hotel is the only approved hotel available to us.

‘Should they choose to terminate our contract, or elect not to renew it later this year, the route will become financially unviable.’ The note begs captains and senior cabin crew members to ‘sensitively manage pool/room parties and any raucous crew behaviour’.

Other routes allegedly suffering ‘crew behaviour issues’ include Mauritius, Las Vegas, San Diego and other U.S. destinations where the legal drinking age is 21 – meaning crews who cannot drink alcohol in public bars are more likely to party in their hotel rooms.

Separately, BA has sent out an internal message to all crews warning they face dismissal if they are caught taking alcoholic drinks off planes without paying for them. However they are allowed to buy them under the ‘crew purchase scheme’ at cheap rates.

Although cabin crew are banned from drinking alcohol in uniform, another BA source said: ‘Those rules are only adhered to “in public”. What goes on in the hotel room is different.

‘Often when away from home, crew have room parties. Crew are able to buy cheap alcohol on board the aircraft and consume this in hotel rooms, thereby avoiding expensive bar prices. Games often played are variations on “spin the bottle”, “truth or dare” and “I have never...”.

‘The room parties often get quite wild. I have seen damage occurring to the hotel, I have seen nudity and streaking. I once saw two male crew members leaving the room party with a male pilot, and they reported the next day that they had a ‘threesome’ with the pilot.

‘In Cyprus once, crew returning to the hotel from a night out found a donkey tied up in a field. The donkey was led back to the hotel and the crew managed to get it into a lift and up to the fourth floor, before hotel security intervened.’

The source added: ‘A phrase often used is: “What happens ‘down-route’ stays down-route”, however this is not always the case. Rumours do the rounds all the time.

'The rumours are known as “Galley FM”, and cover everything from who's sleeping with who, to what plans the company has for routes or expansion and so on.

‘When away from home, crew are accommodated at British Airways' expense in luxury hotels. The agreement between the union and BA means we have to be put up in somewhere with restaurants/bars etc, therefore we end up staying in some of the world's finest hotels.’

A BA spokesman said: 'We speak to all of our hotel suppliers on a regular basis. We purchase around 5,000 hotel rooms a year in Nairobi for our crew and have received a small number of concerns from the hotel.

'We take any complaint extremely seriously and have reminded our Nairobi crew of the high standards that are expected of them when off duty overseas.'

Melbourne replaces Vancouver as the 'most liveable' city

31 August 2011

Melbourne is now the world’s most liveable city, ending Vancouver’s nine-year reign on the Economist Intelligence Unit’s (EIU) bi-annual Global Liveability Survey.

Vienna was rated the second best place to live, and Vancouver the third. Toronto and Calgary rounded out the top five. In another coup for Australia, Sydney jumped ahead of Helsinki to sixth spot.

Longtime runner-up Melbourne edged in front for its low crime rates, political stability, and comprehensive health care and infrastructure.

Melbourne’s vibrant restaurant scene and European-style café culture didn't hurt its ratings, either.

Vancouver fell from grace because of the recent intermittent closure of the key Malahat Highway, causing the city to lose points for infrastructure, said the EIU. Presumably the Stanley Cup rioting cannot have helped the city's image either.

As in previous years, Australian and Canadian cities dominated the rest of the top 10, while New Zealand's Auckland, ranked tenth.

Cities in Africa and the Middle East languished at the bottom of the 140 cities in the survey, with Zimbabwe's Harare once again trailing in last place due to flagging scores in stability, health care and infrastructure.

The "Arab Spring" saw a fall in regional stability, with war-torn Tripoli in Libya sliding into the bottom 10 from its previous placement at 107.

The ongoing eurozone crisis also made European cities less liveable generally, the report said.

Osaka and Tokyo were Asia’s top ranking cities in 12th and 18th place respectively. Hong Kong came in 31st, Singapore 51st, Seoul 58th, and Shanghai 79th. Mumbai moved up one place from last year at 116th.

Honolulu was placed highest in the United States at 26th, followed by Pittsburgh at 30th. New York came 56th.

"Those that score best tend to be mid-sized cities in wealthier countries with a relatively low population density," the EIU report pointed out. "This can foster a range of recreational activities without leading to high crime levels or overburdened infrastructure."

Cities are rated out of 100 points. Stability, health care, education, infrastructure, culture and environment are factors that the survey takes into consideration.

The world's top liveable cities:
1. Melbourne, Australia
2. Vienna, Austria
3. Vancouver, Canada
4. Toronto, Canada
5. Calgary, Canada
6. Sydney, Australia
7. Helsinki, Finland
8. Perth, Australia
9. Adelaide, Australia
10. Auckland, New Zealand

And the worst cities on the planet:

131: Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire
132: Tehran, Iran
133: Douala, Cameroon
134: Karachi, Pakistan
135: Tripoli, Libya
136: Algiers, Algeria
137: Lagos, Nigeria
138: Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea
139: Dhaka, Bangladesh
140: Harare, Zimbabwe