Disclosure - my Dad was a Watford fan. He grew up there. I first saw them in 1970. I watched them through the 70s and 80s until I moved to Canada in 1988. I still follow them every week.

Watford is a nice, inoffensive club. It had family enclosures before anyone else. The fans are real fans; not corporate box and and prawn sandwich fans; and they do care.

But the old stadium has not seen a lick of paint this side of the millennium celebrations. The main stand remains closed because of safety concerns after being condemned three years ago. It’s a disgrace.

What is happening to Watford, my club, is a morality tale of our times. It could happen to your club next.

We’ve never had much money, even when Sir Elton John was bankrolling the odd player or two. We have none now. The new owner, Laurence Bassini, admits he changed his name from Bazini when he was made bankrupt in 2007. His management strategy seems to involve whistling a happy tune and assuring us all will be well.

Graham Taylor, our very own former England manager, is hanging in there as chairman. It’s an admirable act of self-sacrifice. He must be allowing his heart to rule his head. There’s no other logical explanation.

Earlier this week Malky Mackay, who walked out on Watford to join Cardiff, returned to pinch Scotland international midfield player Don Cowie.

Malky – who this time last year was quite literally working out whether Watford could afford smoked-salmon sandwiches in the boardroom – had already been back to take three of the backroom staff. I don’t blame him – he was criminally underrated. He also knows there is money at Cardiff and none left at Watford.

Sean Dyche, his former assistant, has been promoted to manager. It is the cheapest option. He is a good coach and will attempt to build a team in his own image; it will not be pretty. It will be survival.

Danny Graham, last season’s top scorer, has been sold to Swansea for £3.5m. Winger Will Buckley, one of the most promising players outside the Premier League, has been given away to Brighton for £1m. The ground share with Saracens has been renewed for another year. The rent is useful income but the damage to the pitch is makes it almost unplayable.

The money taken in by the club must be being used elsewhere - not on players - the big signing so far is David Mirfin from Scunthorpe on a free transfer.

How did the club hang on to Scott Loach - maybe they will lose him before the season starts.

Relegation looks a racing certainty.

Climbing through the clouds

8 July 2011 - The Economist

Last month 230 international airlines gathered in Singapore for the annual meeting of the International Air Transport Association (IATA), their trade body. The price of oil, at more than $110 a barrel, cast a pall over proceedings: a rise of $1 a barrel adds $1.6 billion to airlines’ costs, and IATA expects a barrel to cost an average of $30 more this year than last. The industry’s net profits of $18 billion in 2010, a rare good year, were forecast to plunge to $4 billion in 2011. Yet only a fortnight later at the Paris Air Show airlines went on a $90 billion shopping spree, ordering 730 planes from Airbus and 142 from Boeing, enough to keep production lines humming for seven years.

Two things explain this paradox. The first is that because oil accounts for a third of operating costs, airlines are desperate for more fuel-efficient planes. Late last year Airbus brought out a re-engined version of its A320 single-aisle family, offering fuel savings of up to 15%. It has become the fastest-selling new aircraft in history. More than 1,000 have been ordered, many of them by fast-growing budget airlines. The biggest demand is in the Asia-Pacific region: India’s IndiGo and Malaysia’s AirAsia ordered 380 between them in Paris. This illustrates the second explanation, the tilt of aviation, like that of so many other industries, to the east. Profits in Asia were double those in the rest of the world last year and growth rates there are stronger than in Europe and North America.

But civil aviation is undergoing a more wrenching change than just a drift eastward. A history of regulation and government involvement has left it burdened by trade protection, inefficiency and excess capacity. Airlines helped to bring about globalisation, but their own industry is far from globalised. Instead of globe-spanning giants, the world has 230 flag-carriers and several dozen budget airlines. Even last year the industry’s profit margins were not fat. Only those innovative low-cost carriers make decent money.

Yet this old model is coming under pressure: consolidation of a sort is taking place at a regional or continental level. The rapid growth of Asian traffic is one reason for this. The rise of low-cost carriers born in liberalised markets is another. And over the past decade airlines have been buffeted by one external shock after another, from the terrorist attacks of September 11th 2001 and the SARS health scare to recession in Western economies, volcanic eruptions (last year in Iceland, this year in Chile), the Japanese earthquake and tsunami, and the rise in oil prices.

The effect of this succession of troubles can be seen in airlines’ profits. Airlines took six years to recover from losses of $13 billion in the annus horribilis of 2001 and made a profit of $14.7 billion in 2007. But then the cost of a barrel of jet fuel more than doubled, to $170, just as the recession sent load factors down. Some airlines, such as Ryanair, the biggest European budget carrier, have taken to parking many of their planes in the winter rather than burning fuel in half-empty aircraft.

The sharp recovery that began last year as fuel costs eased and demand picked up was soon snuffed out when oil prices rose again. Giovanni Bisignani, a former boss of Alitalia and the head of IATA from 2002 until this year, reminded colleagues in his leaving speech in Singapore that even in 2010, “the best year of the decade”, they had “a pathetic [net profit] margin of 3.2%”. For most of the past 40 years, he notes, margins were merely 0.1-0.2% on average. At the best of times airlines are fragile. Even low-cost successes such as easyJet and Ryanair make losses some of the year.

IATA claims that its members have made great strides in cutting costs, carving out $55 billion a year. For example, persuading countries to open air space to allow more direct routes has saved $16 billion on fuel. Squaring up to monopoly suppliers such as airports and air-traffic-control services has yielded a further $19 billion. A broad programme to simplify the business by, for example, phasing out paper tickets for online bookings, introducing bar-code boarding passes and streamlining baggage and freight handling is worth about $18 billion. Although this sounds impressive, it amounts to a saving of only 10%—and it took seven years.

Some efforts have gone further. For years airlines in America staggered in and out of Chapter 11 bankruptcy, which was supposed to give them protection from creditors until they became fit to fly profitably again. Their reliance on this device was criticised by foreign carriers as a disguised subsidy that maintained excess capacity and postponed overdue consolidation. Yet it did eventually lead to reductions in cost, for example by allowing airlines to renegotiate labour agreements with unions.

The industry’s plight also led to an easing of the antitrust scrutiny that had attended airline mergers. Delta was cleared to take over Northwest Airlines in October 2008. Struggling United Airlines and Continental were allowed to merge in September 2010, after several spells in Chapter 11. The mergers helped airlines trim their capacity and restore profits (although rising oil prices pushed them back into loss this year). The only network carrier in America not to go through Chapter 11, American Airlines, has fallen on hard times, slipping from the number-one slot to number three. Its share price has fallen by about 80% in the past five years as it has slid into loss. Without the pain of bankruptcy to force change, it is left with the highest labour costs and pension obligations.

European airlines have been consolidating too. Air France and KLM led the way, merging in 2004. They created a holding company so that each airline could keep nation-specific traffic rights under bilateral deals with countries outside Europe and America. The liberalising “open skies” deal between these two blocks, signed in 2007, made European mergers much easier by allowing European and American airlines to fly from anywhere on one side of the Atlantic to anywhere on the other.

After much dithering British Airways and Iberia got together in 2010. BA plans to use Madrid as a second base to get around capacity limits at Heathrow, where plans for a third runway have been blocked. Paris-Charles de Gaulle and Frankfurt now serve more destinations directly than London’s main airport does. Lufthansa has swallowed Swissair and Sabena, and has taken full control of bmi British Midland. However, the European Commission has blocked purely national mergers between Ryanair and Aer Lingus, in Ireland, and Olympic and Aegean, in Greece.

The big limitation of the open-skies arrangement was that it left in place the 25% limit on foreigners’ stakes in American carriers. In the European Union non-EU investors are restricted to 49%. Limits on foreign ownership have spurred international airline alliances, which for years have pooled marketing and sold seats on each other’s flights, to press for the antitrust immunity needed for deeper integration, or “virtual” merger. The pursuit of this is justified by a (contested) theory that virtually merged airlines offer lower fares on flights through their hubs. Separate carriers, seeking to maximise profit on each leg of a journey, would charge more.

As a result of all this consolidation on both sides of the Atlantic, Aviation Economics, a consultancy, says that this summer three virtually merged groupings will carry 73% of traffic across the ocean. These are: (one world) International Airlines Group (BA and Iberia) plus American Airlines; (star allinace) United, including Continental, and Lufthansa and Air Canada; and (skyteam) Air France-KLM with Delta, incorporating Northwest. Some routes from continental airports, such as Frankfurt or Amsterdam, are monopolised.

The failure to scrap barriers to foreign ownership has meant there are no intercontinental mergers. Aviation has thus missed out on the sort of global rationalisation that occurs in most other industries. Apart from the transatlantic joint ventures, attempts at linking up between continents have tended to be disappointing. Singapore Airlines makes no secret of its desire to ditch its 49% stake in Virgin Atlantic, which is in turn up for sale by Virgin Group because it can no longer compete across the Atlantic with merged and virtually merged rivals.

Perhaps the most surprising bout of consolidation and revival, however, has been in Latin America. Governments in the region have followed Chile’s lead and decided to get out of the way of private airlines. The failure of Brazil’s state-owned airline, Varig, was a turning-point. It helped the rise of Gol, a Brazilian low-cost carrier, and TAM, which has a more traditional network. Now TAM is planning to merge with LAN, a privatised Chilean airline which has long set the regional standard for efficiency in its open, liberalised home market. LAN has built partnerships with airlines in Colombia, Costa Rica and Panama. Most of these are family-owned and are therefore able to act quickly and boldly without the hindrance of nervous capital markets or restrictive state shareholders. The merged company, LATAM Airlines Group, will be one of the largest quoted airlines in the world.

The rise of another region, the Gulf, is causing acute pain to American and European airline executives. Led by Dubai’s Emirates, Gulf airlines are redefining long-haul travel. Emirates is often accused by envious Europeans of growing thanks to state subsidies. It is owned by the government, but had only a tiny capital injection to get going 25 years ago.

Since then it has expanded profitably, helped by its government’s pro-aviation policies such as the rapid expansion of its home airport and the provision of efficient air-traffic control. Above all, Emirates, led by two British veterans, Maurice Flanagan and Tim Clark, twigged that in the age of aircraft capable of flying 18 hours non-stop, Dubai was the ideal spot for a new kind of hub. Planes such as Boeing 777s (of which it is the biggest buyer) and Airbus A380s (ditto: 15 are already flying and 90 are on order) can fly anywhere in the world from Dubai. It is free of air-traffic congestion, has no ban on night flights and has plenty of runway space. Emirates’ remarkable success is one reason why air-travel growth is fastest in the Middle East.

Dubai is handily placed to connect nearby emerging markets, such as India and Pakistan, with the rest of the world: as people there become better off, they want to travel more. But it has built links to Europe too. While Europe’s flag carriers concentrated on their hubs, Emirates sought secondary markets such as Manchester, Glasgow, Hamburg and Dusseldorf. Messrs Flanagan and Clark saw that passengers would happily fly from such cities to Cape Town, say, via Dubai, stopping briefly or even overnight, if transit was pleasant and the fare was cheap.

When Emirates was setting up these routes, European governments saw no threat from this upstart Arabian airline and were happy to grant it traffic rights in liberal bilateral treaties. Now they are stuck with them and can do nothing to fight the competition, since Dubai is, in essence, a tax-free zone with access to cheap labour from the Indian subcontinent. Emirates reported a 52% rise in profits this May; the year before they increased fivefold. Because its routes are exclusively long-haul, Emirates has planes flying 18 hours a day, making them remarkably productive.

Dubai already has the world’s third-busiest international airport, with traffic growing at 20% a year. On July 6th it said it would spend $7.8 billion on expanding it. Yet a huge new one, costing $35 billion, is being built and is already open for cargo. In about ten years, with its five runways and capacity to handle 160m passengers a year, it will be the largest airport in the world.

Emirates will also have the biggest fleet of the biggest airliners. Some observers believe that Emirates is a pioneer of low-cost long-haul travel, capable of keeping economy fares below competitors’ if it has to. By deploying so many large, economical aircraft from a vast base, open around the clock and halfway between Europe and Asia, Emirates could in effect run a global hub, reducing European airports to a feeder role and impoverishing their associated flag carriers. No wonder airlines such as Lufthansa keep sniping at Dubai and its alleged “subsidies”. And no wonder aviation accounts for 28% of Dubai’s GDP.

For the first half-century of its emergence after the second world war, civil aviation was dominated by the huge American market, where distance favoured air travel for domestic journeys. Internationally, other countries were afraid of the dominance of the two biggest American carriers, TWA and Pan American. For their part, Americans were afraid of hostile European planes flying over their homeland, perhaps to drop bombs rather than passengers. That mutual lack of trust gave rise to the Chicago Convention on air travel in 1944 and then to restrictive bilateral air-traffic deals, exemplified by the so-called Bermuda agreement covering transatlantic flights. IATA was formed to run this regulated aviation commerce, acting as a clearing house for payments between airlines and drawing up rules for everything from the size of sandwiches to the price of headphones for in-flight films.

Those days are on the way out. Mr Bisignani, the retiring boss of IATA, reckons that China will lead the way now. The Asia-Pacific region already accounts for 40% of the air-cargo market and 26% of passenger travel, making it bigger than America. By 2014 the region is forecast to have 30% of the world air-travel market, adding 210m passengers from China alone. China has built 45 new airports in the past five years and plans another 52 by 2020. India is waking up to aviation after a long sleep. It has fast-growing low-cost airlines and plans to make Delhi a regional hub.

The capital markets seem to have spotted this reshaping of world aviation. Emirates is still locked away in the ownership of the Al Maktoum family, which runs Dubai (although Dubai’s financial troubles in 2008 at one point seemed likely to force a flotation to repay debts). But three of the world’s leading airlines by market capitalisation are from East or South-East Asia: Air China, Singapore Airlines and China Southern Airlines. With LATAM on the way, the top five will contain only one European airline, Lufthansa, and not a single American carrier, even though American airlines still fly most passengers.

Asia is also proving an unlikely champion of free trade, with little enthusiasm for clinging to outdated, traffic-limiting bilateral deals. ASEAN, the Association of South-East Asian Nations, is working on establishing a single aviation market with no traffic restrictions by 2015. “China will break Bermuda and the old IATA system,” says Mr Bisignani. Thus a new economic power that joined the World Trade Organisation only in 2001, whose trade policies are frequently criticised by members of longer standing, is likely to play a leading role in tearing down the restrictions of the most regulated of global industries.

When the dust clears from the sensational order boom (at least for Airbus) in Paris, perhaps reality will crowd in. Past experience suggests that, to paraphrase St Matthew, many are ordered but fewer are delivered. But that seems unlikely this time, given the need for more fuel-efficient planes and the fact that the orders are coming largely from the undersupplied and booming Asia-Pacific region. And there are other sources of demand.

Emirates is already muttering about more orders at the next big air show, in November on its home turf in Dubai. Whereas in Paris carriers splurged on single-aisle planes, the rise of long-haul budget carriers could boost sales of wide-bodied craft in the next few years. Tony Fernandes, boss of AirAsia, wants Airbus to put new engines and improvements on the A330, which is used by his company’s long-haul budget airline, AirAsia X. And European carriers such as Air France-KLM and Americans such as American Airlines urgently need to replace ageing wide-bodied planes with more efficient modern ones.

The shifts in global aviation may affect builders of aircraft as well as buyers. Boeing and Airbus could lose their tight grip. Embraer in Brazil and Bombardier in Canada are moving up from smaller regional jets to big ones; and Russia’s Irkut and China’s Comac are entering the international market for single-aisle airliners. Ryanair has signed a co-operation deal with the Chinese company, with a view to using it as an alternative to Boeing, its sole supplier. As aviation goes properly global, so might the aircraft industry. Wherever you look, newcomers are muscling in on what was once a Western domain.

The revenge of the Dems

8 June 2011

Here we go again - Every true democracy accepts the outcome of it's elections. There are winners and losers; why do the Thais not understand this.

Thailand's outgoing ruling party has launched legal action seeking to dissolve the party of former premier Thaksin Shinawatra, following its election loss.

The Democrat Party asked the Election Commission to recommend the rival Puea Thai Party, the poll winner, be abolished on the grounds that banned politicians were involved in its campaign, the head of the Democrats' legal team told AFP.

The legal process is expected to take several months at least to be completed and is not expected to prevent Thaksin's youngest sister Yingluck Shinawatra from becoming Thailand's first female prime minister.

"We asked EC to recommend to the Constitutional Court to dissolve Puea Thai," Wiratana Kalayasiri, head of the Democrats' legal team, told AFP.

"The accusation is that Puea Thai allowed people subject to five-year political bans to become involved in policy planning, phone-ins and video addresses and also the selection of candidates," he said.

Bizarre really  - since the Democrat government was a coalition in Parliament with Newin Chidchob's BJP party. Chidchob is himself under a 5 year political ban.
 
Two Thaksin parties have been dissolved in the past and their top executives, including the controversial former leader, were banned from politics. The Democrats came to power in 2008 after the forerunner to Puea Thai was dissolved for electoral fraud.

In addition the Election Commission has launched the investigation into a complaint that in a campaign demonstration in Nakhon Ratchasima, Yingluck cooked and handed out a local noodle dish, known as Mee Korat. Under the campaign rules, the hand-out of food or material gift is classified as vote-buying.

The lowest low

8 June 2011 - The Economist explains the phone hacking scandal and the fall-out

Until this week, the victims in the scandal over the illegal hacking of mobile-phone messages by the News of the World seemed mostly to be celebrities, royals and others too privileged to command much sympathy. For the tabloid, that was a useful mitigation in the court of public opinion, if not in law. No longer. The sordid antics of Britain’s biggest-selling Sunday paper—owned by News International, Rupert Murdoch’s British newspaper outfit—look more promiscuous and more gravely criminal. And the circle of blame and taint is widening.

The big difference is Milly Dowler, a 13-year-old schoolgirl who was murdered in Surrey in March 2002. On July 4th the Guardian reported allegations that Glenn Mulcaire, a private investigator working with News of the World journalists, hacked into Dowler’s voice-mail in the days after her disappearance, removing some messages to free up space when her account became full. The effect was to make her family think she might still be alive. The relatives of people killed in the terrorist attacks in London of July 2005, and of soldiers killed in Iraq and Afghanistan, might also have been targeted. Ditto the families of two girls murdered in Cambridgeshire in 2002: in a bizarre cameo in what is an increasingly baroque saga, the actor Hugh Grant made that link in April, in a covertly recorded interview with a former journalist. Tom Watson, a Labour MP, made an even more serious charge in Parliament on July 6th: that News International paid people to interfere in a murder case “on behalf of known criminals”. The firm says it doesn’t understand that accusation.

Mr Mulcaire was jailed in 2007 for hacking voice-mail messages of members of the royal household, along with Clive Goodman, the News of the World’s royal correspondent. At the time, and for a long time afterwards, executives at News International insisted that Mr Goodman was a lone, rogue operator. In the past few months that defence has collapsed, amid a deluge of civil cases brought by the lengthening list of hacking victims, pay-offs, and the arrest of more journalists. Yet the Dowler development has supercharged the scandal—not just because of its callous immorality but also because it potentially involves perversion of the course of justice, a new level of criminality.

If much of this is true, there were no qualms, and few limits, in the way the paper went after scoops. There might be serious legal and commercial consequences for News International. But others have been discredited, too—not least the police.

On July 5th News International acknowledged that, last month, it gave the Metropolitan Police a set of e-mails documenting (illegal) payments to police officers from News of the World journalists in 2003 and after. That is only the latest aspersion cast on various police forces by this affair. The police in Surrey seem to have known about the Dowler hacking but overlooked it. Worse, the Met itself stands accused of failing for several years to notify potential victims of hacking and failing to pursue leads: the evidence for many recent allegations comes from notes seized from Mr Mulcaire in 2006. The Met launched a fresh probe, under new command, in January. But its contacting of targets remains mystifyingly lacklustre.

Whether intentionally or otherwise (News International says it wasn’t), the news about police payments deflected attention onto Andy Coulson, the News of the World’s editor from 2003 to 2007—and thus, indirectly onto David Cameron. Mr Coulson resigned from the paper in 2007 after Mr Goodman and Mr Mulcaire were convicted, though he insisted that he knew nothing of their nefarious methods. He resigned again, this time from his job as Mr Cameron’s communications chief, in January this year, as the hacking scandal escalated. Mr Cameron’s judgment in hiring Mr Coulson after his tabloid escapades now looks ropier than ever (see Bagehot).

As it happens, Mr Coulson’s predecessor as editor, and News International’s current chief executive, Rebekah Brooks (above, with Mr Murdoch), is a close friend of Mr Cameron, too. Mrs Brooks was in the editor’s chair in 2002; if the latest hacking allegations stand up, her position looks at least as compromised as Mr Coulson’s was in 2007. But, so far, she has rebuffed calls for her resignation, declaring herself “shocked” at the latest charges and promising to “vigorously pursue the truth”. Critics wonder whether Mrs Brooks, who has in the past been insouciantly unco-operative with parliamentary inquiries into phone-hacking, or indeed anyone else at News International, with its history of collective obfuscation, is well-placed to do that.

For the moment, at least, Mrs Brooks appears to be protected by what insiders describe as an intense, almost familial bond with Mr Murdoch, who is said to prize her business acumen and contacts: Mr Murdoch this week called the recent allegations “deplorable”, but stood by her. Events might yet test just how much their bond is worth. Public anger has already persuaded several advertisers to suspend their dealings with the News of the World; some readers may choose to boycott it.

Still, Claire Enders, a media analyst, thinks the commercial impact is likely to be modest, given the paper’s dominance in the Sunday newspaper market. Much worse, for Mr Murdoch, is the slim chance that the scandal might affect his bid to buy the rest of BSkyB, a hugely profitable satellite broadcaster in which News Corporation, his parent company, already has a 39% stake. Jeremy Hunt, the culture secretary, looked set finally to approve the deal after a consultation on its impact on media plurality ends on July 8th. Meanwhile Ofcom, the broadcasting regulator, is obliged to consider whether the holders of broadcasting licences are “fit and proper”. It is “closely monitoring the situation”.

And it isn’t only the Murdoch press that is set to feel the backlash. Whereas in America journalism is a respectable, even venerated profession, in Britain it has always been regarded as grubby. But it has rarely been so reviled as now. Ed Miliband, the leader of the Labour Party, wants a public inquiry into the culture and regulation of the press; Mr Cameron agrees that there ought to be one or more inquiries, after criminal proceedings are over. One result might be a change to the current model of newspaper self-regulation; the Press Complaints Commission, the toothless body responsible for it, has handled the hacking affair woefully.

Most MPs were in the past much more diplomatic about the press, especially the Murdoch stable, which, so exaggerated legend had it, could decide the fate of governments. But the calculus for politicians has suddenly shifted. Mr Miliband’s tough stance towards News International—he joined the clamour for Mrs Brooks’s resignation—would have been unthinkable in the Blair years. Mr Cameron shied away from calling for his friend’s head too, but described the allegations as “truly dreadful”. And there may be more to come in this mad, metastasising story.

Murdoch stuns critics, shuts down scandal-hit paper

7 July 2011Reuters

In a breathtaking response to a scandal engulfing his media empire, Rupert Murdoch moved on Thursday to close down the News of the World, Britain's biggest selling Sunday newspaper.

As allegations multiplied that its journalists hacked the voicemails of thousands of people, from child murder victims to the families of Britain's war dead, the tabloid had hemorrhaged advertising, alienated millions of readers and posed a growing threat to Murdoch's hopes of buying broadcaster BSkyB.

Yet no one, least of all the 168-year-old paper's 200 staff, was prepared for the drama of a single sentence that will surely go down as one of the most startling turns in the 80-year-old Australian-born press baron's long and controversial career.

"News International today announces that this Sunday, 10 July 2011, will be the last issue of the News of the World," read the preamble to a statement from Murdoch's son James, who chairs the British newspaper arm of News Corp.

It seemed a bold gamble, sacrificing a historic title that is suffering from the long-term decline of print newspapers to stave off a threat to plans to expand in television -- "Talk about a nuclear option," said a "gobsmacked" Steven Barnett, professor of communications at Westminster University.

But some analysts said Murdoch would still face pressure to remove his close confidante and top British newspaper executive Rebekah Brooks, a friend of Prime Minister David Cameron. Her editorship of the News of the World a decade ago is at the heart of some of the gravest accusations.

Praising a fine muck-raking tradition at the paper, which his father bought in 1969, James Murdoch wrote in a statement to stunned staff that the explosion of a long-running scandal over phone hacking by journalists had made the paper unviable:

"The good things the News of the World does ... have been sullied by behavior that was wrong. Indeed, if recent allegations are true, it was inhuman and has no place in our company. The News of the World is in the business of holding others to account. But it failed when it came to itself."

It was unclear whether the company would produce a replacement title for the lucrative Sunday market, in which, despite difficult times for newspaper circulations, the News of the World is still selling 2.6 million copies a week.

One option, analysts said, might be for its daily sister paper the Sun to extend its coverage to a seventh day.

Stephen Adams, a fund manager at Aegon asset management, which is one of the biggest shareholders in BSkyB, told Reuters:

"We see it as something to restore or remedy a tarnished reputation for the News Corp group. But we also critically see it as a reflection of News Corp's desire to progress the BSkyB bid and have full ownership of the company."

Cameron's government had already given an informal blessing to the takeover, despite criticism on the left that it gave Murdoch too much media power. But the storm of outrage at the News of the World had turned attention on Cameron's own links to the paper -- he made another former editor his spokesman -- and so had fostered concerns among investors that there could be snags in securing final approval for the $14-billion bid.

In his statement, James Murdoch said: "This Sunday will be the last issue of the News of the World.

"In addition, I have decided that all of the News of the World's revenue this weekend will go to good causes ... We will run no commercial advertisements this weekend."

Journalists said that an emotional editor Colin Myler had read out the announcement at the east London newsroom where Murdoch changed the face of British journalism in the 1980s by breaking the power of the printing unions.

Myler, journalists said, had asked Brooks to leave the room, adding that many were angry that some 200 people were losing jobs in what they saw as a move to shield the former editor.

James Murdoch made clear Brooks remained in place as chief executive, telling Sky News he was satisfied that Brooks knew nothing of the crimes allegedly committed when he was editor.

One employee of the doomed paper told Reuters: "We didn't expect it at all. We had no indication. The last week has been tough. None of us have done anything wrong. We thought we were going to weather the storm."

One source at News International said the decision had been taken and acted upon with little delay.

The journalists' trade union said it was Brooks, not they, who should be fired: "It is the people at the top who need to be punished, not ordinary working journalists," the union said.

The leader of the opposition Labor party Ed Miliband also said Brooks should go. "What I'm interested in is not closing down newspapers, I'm interested in those who were responsible being brought to justice and those who have responsibility for the running of that newspaper taking their responsibility and I don't think those two things have happened today."

Ian Hargreaves of the Cardiff School of Journalism called closing the paper "an astonishing and unprecedented act": "It is appropriate to the moral horror that the owners of the newspaper faced but...killing the paper does not kill the story."

Tom Watson, a Labour member of parliament who had campaigned for a reckoning from the paper over the phone hacking scandal, said: "This is a victory for decent people up and down the land.

"I say good riddance to the News of the World."

The scandal had deepened on Thursday with claims News of the World hacked the phones of relatives of British soldiers killed in action in Iraq and Afghanistan. Britain's military veterans' association broke off a joint lobbying campaign with the paper and said it might join major brands in pulling its advertising.

The British Legion said it could not campaign with the News of the World on behalf of the families of soldiers "while it stands accused of preying on these same families in the lowest depths of their misery."

Signaling how far the racy, flag-waving title has alienated a core readership already horrified by suggestions its reporters accessed the voicemails not only of celebrities and politicians, but also of missing children and crime victims, an online boycott petition garnered hundreds of thousands of signatures.

News Corp wants to buy out the 61 percent of BSkyB it does not already own. The government has said the News of the World case should not affect that. But U.S. shares in News Corp fell over 5 percent on Wednesday, though they recovered somewhat in a stronger general market on Thursday.

Formal approval for the deal had been expected within weeks after the government gave its blessing in principle. But it now seems unlikely for months, although officials denied suggestions that they were delaying a decision because of the scandal.

"The Secretary of State has always been clear that he will take as long as is needed to reach a decision. There is no 'delay' since there has been no set timetable for a further announcement," a government spokesman said. Some British media reported that a decision was now expected in September.

The main accusations are that journalists, or their hired investigators, took advantage of often limited security on mobile phone voicemail boxes to listen in to messages left for celebrities, politicians or people involved in major stories.

Disclosure that the practice involved victims of crime came when police said a private detective working for the News of the World in 2002 hacked into messages left on the phone of murdered schoolgirl Milly Dowler while police were still looking for her.

Police have also been criticized over allegations officers took money from the News of the World for information. London's Evening Standard newspaper said on Thursday that police officers took more than 100,000 pounds ($160,000) in payments from senior journalists and executives at the paper.

Analysts believe the global Murdoch empire, which includes Fox television and the Wall Street Journal, can weather a storm of reproach from advertisers, readers and politicians in Britain -- though there were signs of international ramifications.

In Murdoch's native Australia, the leader of the Greens party said he wants the government to examine the ramifications on Australia of the phone hacking scandal.

The News of the World is gone (for now)

7 July 2011

News International announced today that it is closing the News of the World after this Sunday's edition, with no end in sight to the political and commercial fallout from the phone-hacking scandal after 72 hours of mounting crisis.

Sunday's edition of the paper will be the last, News International chairman James Murdoch told shocked News of the World staff on Thursday afternoon.

Murdoch told employees at the 168-year-old title: "The News of the World is in the business of holding others to account. But it failed to when it came to itself".

Murdoch said in a statement: "Wrongdoers turned a good newsroom bad and this was not fully understood or adequately pursued."

Murdoch also conceded the company had "made statements to parliament without being in full possession of the facts. This was wrong".

He said "the News of the World and News International wrongly maintained that these issues were confined to one reporter" and that the company had passed information to the police which would demonstrate this. "Those who acted wrongly will have to face the consequences," he said.

Murdoch also said in his statement to staff that he had authorised out-of-court payments to victims of hacking: "I now know that I did not have a complete picture when I did so."

He added: "That was wrong and is a matter of serious regret."

The News of the World was Rupert Murdoch's first UK newspaper acquisition in 1968. The title remains the UK's biggest-selling paper, with a circulation of 2.66m in May this year. However, in 1962, when the Audit Bureau of Circulations began publishing regular newspaper sales figures, the News of the World was selling 6.66m.

A spokesman for the company would not comment on whether News International will continue to publish a tabloid title on a Sunday. Inevitably, there are already industry rumours that the News of the World's stablemate the Sun could be turned into a seven-day operation. News International has already announced plans to move to seven-day working across its four titles – the Sun, News of the World, the Times and Sunday Times – and the internet domain name thesunonsunday.co.uk was registered two days ago, although the purchaser's identity is unclear.

The closure of the paper is a dramatic and potentially very cynical move to head off public anger at shocking revelations about the behaviour of its journalists, but it is unlikely that NI's printing presses will be left idle on a Sunday.

The NOTW was facing a revolt by advertisers that had gathered pace in the past 24 hours as Prime Minister David Cameron announced public inquiries into phone hacking and criticism of the paper's activities mounted from politicians and the general public. Most NoW advertisers, including Sainsbury's, Asda, Dixons, Boots, Specsavers, Ford, Halifax, Co-op and Npower had already pulled their campaigns. It is understood News International only had four left – BSkyB, British Gas, Mars and Tesco.

The number of alleged phone-hacking incidents perpetrated by the paper in years gone by had also continued to grow, with the latest (and this is outrageous) involving families of members of the armed forces killed in Iraq and Afghanistan. More details were also emerging about alleged payments by News of the World journalists to Metropolitan police officers.

The decision to close the paper is understood to have come following a meeting on Thursday between executives including James Murdoch, who is also the deputy chief operating officer of NI-owner News Corp and oversees the UK business, Brooks, and the publisher's commercial managing director, Paul Hayes.

The Guardian newspaper has pursued these allegations for two years and editor Alan Rusbridger has issued the following statement in reaction to the News of the World closure.

"James Murdoch's statement describes the crisis at the News of the World as eloquently as anything that has been written in the Guardian. He admits - as we have been reporting for two years - that the paper has been "sullied by by behaviour that was wrong...and inhuman." He concedes - as we reported - that the paper has misled parliament and that he was wrong personally to make the out of court settlements which the Guardian revealed in July 2009.

Mr Murdoch blames "wrongdoers" who "turned a good newsroom bad." He does not say who these wrongdoers were - and that is the crucial question people will be asking, including those who are paying with their jobs and who are angry about the loss of a 168-year old newspaper title.

There are numerous outstanding unanswered questions - over the behaviour of the police and the complete failure of the current News International management to uncover what had gone on inside the company."

Sadly the NOTW closure looks more like a cynical commercial decision that will put innocent people out of work. The closure should not stop the investigation into the actions of News International staff and the Metropolitan police. Expect more arrests.

Rebekah Brroks still has a job. Bizarre.

If News Corp think that this will be the end of the scandal they are sadly mistaken.

China's unnecessary secrecy

7 July 2011

Chinese state media denied rumours today that former president Jiang Zemin despite a Hong Kong television station saying he was dead and sparking a wave of speculation about a leadership transition due next year.

But the rumours are rife online in China despite government denials. And frankly there is no reason not to be honest. Jiang is 84 years old, in poor health and has been out of Chinese politics for 10 years. Yet "recent reports of some overseas media organizations about Jiang Zemin's death from illness are pure rumor," the official Xinhua news agency quoted "authoritative sources" as saying.

Reuters reports that Jiang is in intensive care in Beijing at the No. 301 military hospital after suffering a heart attack.

In the opaque world of Chinese politics, the health of a leader is fodder for rumors about how the balance of power is shifting at the highest levels of the government.

Current President Hu Jintao retires from office from late next year in a sweeping leadership overhaul, and the rumors about Jiang's health underscore the uncertainties around this.

Hong Kong's Asia Television interrupted its main newscast on Wednesday evening to announce solemnly that Jiang had died, and followed with a brief profile. It kept up the news for several hours on a ticker and then said it would air a special report on Jiang's life late in the evening.

It later canceled the report, and withdrew the ticker after failing to get official confirmation.

On Thursday afternoon, the television station issued a statement to apologize to its audience and Jiang's family. Bizarre. "Asia Television has taken note of this afternoon's report from Xinhua and has withdrawn last night's report about Mr. Jiang Zemin's death and would like to apologize to our audience and Mr. Jiang Zemin's family," the statement said.

Meanwhile, the Shandong News website (www.sdnews.com.cn) in northeast China posted a black banner with white characters, saying "Our Respectable Comrade Jiang Zemin Is Immortal." The site was no longer accessible on Thursday.

China's foreign ministry spokesman Hong Lei deflected numerous questions about Jiang at a regular news briefing, saying Xinhua had already made a full explanation and that he had nothing further to add.

Searches on a popular Chinese micro-blogging site with terms ranging from "Jiang Zemin" to the Yangtze River (Jiang's surname means "river"), are blocked, a sign that China's censors are concerned about public debate about his health.

Jiang Zemin's passing -- on the surface at least -- would likely have limited impact on the direction of China's politics and economic development.

He retired long ago, handing over the Communist Party's top job to Hu in 2002 and his other posts over the next two years. Hu and Premier Wen Jiabao have since led the country on a decade-long charge that saw it grow from an economy the size of Britain to one that has surpassed Japan.

But the prospect of Jiang's passing would add a breeze of uncertainty to a transition that is widely thought to hand power from Hu to a new generation led by Xi Jinping, currently vice president. That would take place at the 18th Communist Party Congress expected sometime in the autumn of 2012.

Xi, anointed as Hu's heir apparent at the congress in 2007, was considered acceptable to both the Hu and Jiang camps.

But in China, the death of a senior leader can be cause for worry, and even spell disaster, for proteges and allies who are no longer protected.

The Nation's nonsense

7 July 2011

The Nation newspaper does write some crap. Genuine, scurrilous, baseless, evidence-less, mischievous, mud slinging crap.

Try this example:

"Northeast MPs to fly to Dubai demanding Cabinet seats
By The Nation

A group of incoming Pheu Thai MPs from the Northeast will fly to Dubai because they want to pay a visit to ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, incoming MP Sakda Kongpet from Roi Et said on Thursday denying speculation about demand for ministerial job.

Sakda said his Roi Et colleague Niran Namuangrak had falsely accused him of lobbying for Cabinet quotas for northeastern MPs.

"The allocation of Cabinet seats will be done by Pheu Thai executive board," he said.

All constituents would want their MPs to sit on the Cabient but the final decision rests with the party, he added."

Read the headline - and then read the story. They say completely opposite things. But that is typical of the post election nation. They throw as much mud as possible in the hope that some of its sticks.

Thailand: A divisive dynasty
 
7 July 2011 - The Financial Times

As the scale of the opposition victory in Thailand’s general election became clear last Sunday, Thamolwan Jamjaeng, a street vendor, joined thousands of others waiting outside party headquarters to catch a glimpse of Yingluck Shinawatra, the prime minister-elect.

Dressed in a red shirt, a statement of allegiance in Thailand’s colour-coded politics, her voice almost drowned out as the crowd bellowed every time another win flashed up on the television monitors, Ms Thamolwan vented her euphoria. “Puea Thai will be able to solve all our problems,” she said. “We want democracy and a peaceful country.”

Those expectations could be a problem for Ms Yingluck, the 44-year-old businesswoman about to become the country’s first female prime minister. She finds herself trapped between the extraordinary hopes of ordinary people such as Ms Thamolwan and a hostile elite that backed the outgoing Democrat party in the election and still controls the army, the bureaucracy and much of the economy.

Many argue that the demands of the two sides are irreconcilable; and that, far from heading into a new dawn of democratic agreement and economic progress, Thailand is heading into yet another round of confrontation and political paralysis. “It would be too optimistic to say ‘the people have voted and that will be respected’, because that hasn’t happened in the past,” says Supavud Saichua, managing director of Phatra Securities in Bangkok.

With its positioning between the regional powerhouses of China and India and its developed infrastructure, Thailand has the potential to become a focal point for, and beneficiary of, south-east Asia’s increasing integration as the Association of South East Asian Nations moves towards enacting a free trade area in 2015.

The country has endured more than five years of turmoil, which has created a political chasm the election has done little to bridge. “Has anything changed? It is the same group of people on both sides doing the same things. Nothing has changed,” Mr Supavud says.

But in the past few years it has lost investments in industries such as automobiles and aeronautics to competitors like Indonesia and Vietnam, which offer a political stability despite their other drawbacks.

At the heart of Thailand’s trouble – perpetrator or victim, depending on which side of the divide the speaker stands – is Thaksin Shinawatra, Ms Yingluck’s elder brother and himself a former prime minister. First elected in 2001, he is the only other Thai leader to have won an absolute majority. Styling himself the “CEO prime minister”, the telecommunications billionaire and former police colonel and earned the lasting loyalty of millions of poor Thais with policies such as cheap healthcare and village loans.

However, his increasingly autocratic style and the corruption of his administration alienated the establishment and the middle classes to such a degree that he was removed in a military coup in 2006. He now lives in Dubai to avoid a two-year sentence for breaching laws on conflict of interest, a charge he says was politically motivated.

When the army stepped down in 2007, Mr Thaksin’s supporters won the subsequent election, but their administration was hamstrung by a series of controversial court decisions. One prime minister was removed from office after being found guilty of conflict of interest for being paid to appear on a cooking show. Rolling demonstrations by hardline conservatives, known as yellow shirts after their trademark attire, culminated in the takeover of Bangkok’s two main airports.

It is Mr Thaksin’s enduring popularity that launched Ms Yingluck on her trajectory to high office, but the enduring and undimmed enmity he inspires among the elite is likely to prove her biggest handicap. The most obvious potential flashpoint is Mr Thaksin’s return, which would create deep unhappiness in the establishment. Although Ms Yingluck was careful not to promise to bring him back, she has mooted an amnesty for political crimes, which supporters read as a pledge that a return would be possible.

Chris Baker, co-author of a biography of Mr Thaksin, says any move to open the way for his return would be the signal for a resumption of political hostilities, starting with the sort of demonstrations that brought down the 2007-08 pro-Thaksin government. “I think they will do everything they can to prevent Thaksin’s return by putting yellow shirts back out on the streets as soon as there is a mention of an amnesty,” says Mr Baker.

Mr Thaksin himself says, unconvincingly for some, that he is prepared to hold off to avoid creating conflict. “If my return is going to cause problems, then I will not do it yet. I should be a solution, not a problem,” he told reporters after his sister’s victory was declared on Sunday night.

Ms Yingluck has distanced herself from the amnesty, setting up a committee to handle the issue and declaring that any decision would not be specific to her brother. “The amnesty would only be a technique of reconciliation, so I’m leaving it to the reconciliation committee to work out,” she told the Financial Times on Wednesday.

Much of Mr Thaksin’s mystique rests on his ability to deliver on his promises in past elections – but given the scale of the giveaways promised during their campaign, his heirs in Puea Thai might struggle. Ms Ying­luck ran on an overtly populist ticket, offering enticements such as a rise in the minimum wage by 40 per cent (which she now says will not happen until next year), a tablet computer for every high school student, and an intervention buying scheme to raise farm-gate rice prices by 50 per cent.

Mr Supavud, of Phatra Securities, says the party’s economic policies could backfire. “I would argue that these policies are going to increase the costs of production,” he says. “The Bank of Thailand is already complaining about inflation, and if this feeds into price increases they will further clamp down on rates and that will harm growth.”

If Puea Thai’s policies feed into price rises, the Bank of Thailand will clamp down on rates and that will harm growthForeign investors seem to be taking the risks in their stride. The Stock Exchange of Thailand index surged almost 5 per cent last Monday, but that was seen more as a celebration of the fact that Puea Thai’s overall majority had obviated the need for messy coalition talks than an assessment of the long-term viability of the new government.

Those who invest in Thailand are no strangers to political turmoil. There have been 18 coups, (11 of them successful), 18 constitutions and 27 prime ministers since the end of absolute monarchy in 1932, but few of them have had a significant long-term impact on the economy. Thailand Inc has not done badly despite the political turmoil. David Beller, head of research at Asia Plus Securities points out that, since the 2006 coup, bank loans have grown by 42 per cent, showing robust confidence among investors and consumers. He also notes that listed operators in the bellwether retail and mobile markets increased revenue by more than 30 per cent.

But there is increasing evidence that the ongoing political problems are extracting a substantial cost. It is notable that, in terms of expected earnings, the SET has traded at a discount of between 15 and 20 per cent to its regional competitors for much of the past five years.

Puea Thai might be able to manage its economic challenges, but there seems no easy way to satisfy perhaps Ms Yingluck’s supporters’ most important demand – accountability for crimes committed in recent years, particularly during last year’s anti-government protests. At least 91 people, the vast majority of them red-shirted pro-Thaksin demonstrators, were killed in botched attempts by the army to clear them from the Ratchaprasong district of central Bangkok and other areas.

“They are going to have to do something about settling the score for Ratchaprasong,” Mr Baker says. “It will need some delicate negotiations with the army, but I think they have to respond.”

That would put the new government on a collision course with the army. Despite being nominally above politics, the military is the most powerful operator in the field, and has traditionally enjoyed impunity for its frequent and bloody interventions. Ms Yingluck says she will appeal to its sense of fair play. “Let’s find the facts first then we can find a way out, because we need to do this together,” she says. “As long as you are fair and you treat everyone equally, everyone should accept that, right?”

As her core supporters are unlikely to be willing to compromise on justice, Ms Yingluck will need to tread carefully in dealing with the problem – her brother’s clumsy attempts to bring the army to heel in 2006 contributed to his downfall. Many analysts have argued that the scale of her victory – she won 265 out of 500 seats in the lower house, and has since forged alliances with minor parties that gives her 299 votes – will intimidate the establishment into respecting the result. But Mr Thaksin held 377 seats at the time of his removal in 2006.

“There is no indication that the palace, the military and the elite are any more prepared to accept the verdict of the people than they were four years ago,” says Federico Ferrara, a political scientist at the City University of Hong Kong, referring to the 2007-2008 government. “I’m pretty sure there will be attempts to undo the election or undermine this government.”

Less than a week after their victory, Puea Thai’s officials remain optimistic, but those at the sharp end of politics have few illusions that the country’s political battles are over. “Sure, there will be trouble but nothing comes easy,” said Boonyong Kanurai, a Puea Thai supporter, as the results of the ballot became clear on Sunday. “We are fighting for the long term.”

Going to extremes - from the city to the farm

6 July 2011

Canada Day brought Oh My Darling, Alex Cuba, Karka and Blue Rodeo to London. The Brits sent Kate and Wills to Ottawa. It was a good deal for everyone gathered to celebrate on a warm evening in Trafalgar Square.

This was the 6th anniversary of Canada Day in Trafalgar Square and it is becoming a big event. The bars were emptied of Sleeman and Canadian. Tim Horton's had Krispy Kreme length donut queues. There was poutine though I have heard dreadful allegations that it was made from shredding cheese as opposed to using cheese curds.

Mike Myers interrupted Karkwa to say hallo; enough for one of the biggest cheers of the night.

The square was packed by the time BR took the stage in front of a well lubricated crowd. The sounds system was poor for such a large venue. And too much pushing and shoving in the crowd was unfortunate with many families and children there. Why why is it that some people insist on loudly using the f word and all its derivatives every other word?

But you dont want my gripes from the evening. It was for the most part a great crowd - maybe as many as 50,000.

Greg was back in the UK after missing last year's tour. He only played acoustic and Colin Cripps did the electric. Wayne Petty also played with them.

The short playlist included the following - I did not/could not take notes so am sure I have missed something:

Hasnt Hit Me Yet
5 Days in July
Cynthia
One more Night
What am I doing here
Bad Timing - in Spanish with Alex Cuba
Trust Yourself
Lost Together

Bad Timing in Spanish sounded great. Released as a single this could open up a whole new market!

The night ended with a rousing "Oh Canada" and ended about 10.15pm.

From 50,000 people in Trafalgar Square the band headed into the farming lands of Suffolk to the Maverick Festival with maybe 2,000 guests attending on the Saturday listening to music on three separate stages.

The Maverick Festival is held over three days on an old farm in the small village of Easton. The farm is now (for want of a better description) a farm theme park - with exhibits and displays. There was for instance a wooden cow with rubber udders if you wanted to learn the finer arts of milking ! Really. Though in its surroundings it felt a little like a trip to the farms of Northern Ontario.

In addition to the music stages (the main stage is in a field the other two stages are in old barns) there was a collection of real ales, ciders and wines, many different foods from peking duck wraps and chorizo pizza to locally baked cakes and home made lemonade. All very relaxed and friendly. You could even buy a harmonica or a ukelele.....

Blue Rodeo closed off the afternoon's concert on the main stage at the centre of the farm.

The crowd lie on the grass, or sit on their camper chairs. They have had a good long lunch. It is warm. The sky is a stunning shade of blue. Not a cloud in site. Families have brought their aging relatives, their dogs and their kids. It is not a get up and dance crowd (except for three people with more energy than the rest). But it is a crowd that enjoys its music.

The playlist:

Hasnt Hit me Yet
One Day in July
Cynthia
One More Night
Til I am Myself Again
What am I Doing Here
English Bay
It could happen to you
Arizona Dust
To Love somebody
Better off as we are
Lost together

It was hot! And the stage faced directly into the sun. Jim worked up a sweat. Mike seemed to be having a thoroughly good time - his Wanch (a Hong Kong bar) t shirt gave us something to talk about after the show!

Al and Suzanne has also made the trip from Hampshire to London and onto Suffolk - nice folk - a big hallo to them !

This was a gig where the band could walk around the food vendors and no one recognised them. It was a gig where after the concert Oh My Darling and Manchester based (and very good) The Traveling Band cemented a transatlantic alliance over a game of frisbee.

The band might be concerned that the crowd was a bit reserved - dont be. They were just being English! Here is a paragraph from www.rythmandtheblues.org.uk - " Blue Rodeo - Canadian country rock institution, for many it's a mystery why the band never got much beyond cult status in the US or Britain. Even after 30 years, here was a band still playing like they meant it. They have any number of great songs from which to choose, and played many of the big Canadian hits as well as a few extended jams, always melodic, never self indulgent. A real highlight of the day."

The band left late in the afternoon to overnight near Heathrow and catch the morning flight to Montreal.

Meanwhile I am still waiting for their debut in Dubai !

DXB announces strategic plan to 2020

6 July 2011

Dubai Airports have released there strategic plan for the decade up to the year 2020. You can read and download the brochure here.

The main items are:

Infrastructure expansion, worth $7.8bn over the next 10 years.

Concourse 3 will be completed next year.

The airport is also adding Concourse 4.

Terminal 2 to be expanded with completion in 2013.

In total, 675,000 sq m of floor space will be added to the airport, which equates to twice the size of Heathrow's latest facility, Terminal 5.

Outside the passenger areas, a new taxiway will be built, alongside a 60 percent increase in the number of aircraft stands.

Plans also include a new dedicated baggage facility.

Concourse 4 will be dedicated to international airlines who will have to move from the existing Terminal 1.

The existing Terminal 1 and 3 comprising concourses 1, 2 and 3 will be dedicated to Emirates passengers.

Concourse 4, at the north end of the airport is expected to be opened in 2015.

Dubai Airports CEO Paul Griffiths said that the focus of the emirate's aviation sector expansion would remain with Dubai International for now.

"We simply can't build Dubai World Central fast enough to keep up with the growth of the airlines [Emirates and FlyDubai]," he said.

Dubai Airports forecasts a cumulative annual growth rate of 7.2%. This is a much stronger rate than the industry average forecast of around 5% from sources such as Boeing and Airbus. Furthermore, based on the past 25 years of data, Dubai Airports fully expects those additional seats to be filled and forecasts passenger numbers to more than double
from the 47.2 million that passed through Dubai International in 2010 to 98.5 million by the end of the decade.

Similarly, bolstered by expanded trade and commerce, airfreight volumes will almost double from the 2.2 million tonnes recorded in 2010 to 4.1 million tonnes in 2020 based on a
6.7% annual growth rate.

Whilst much of the growth is driven by additional hold capacity in the passenger fleet, the forecast also suggests a significant increase in freighter capacity.
Infrastructure Expansion

Concourse 3 will increase capacity from 60 million to 75 million by the the end of 2012.

As airspace opens up, additional aircraft movements will need to be accommodated on the ground to ensure a smooth flow for arrivals and departures. On the airfield, that means the addition of new taxiways and rapid entry/exit points on Dubai International’s two runways. It also requires an increase in the number of stands needed to park and service aircraft.

Plans also include the construction of a remote baggage facility designed to provide fast and accurate processing of high volumes of luggage. Coupled with this will be a high-speed baggage link that will feed the entire south side of the airfield and protect minimum connection times.

Cargo freighters will gradually be repositioned to Dubai World Central as will general aviation to make room for increased passenger traffic at Dubai International.

With additional facility enhancements and operational efficiencies contained in SP2020, Dubai International’s capacity will expand to 90 million passengers per year by 2018.

But; this will change. All good plans change at some point! The big question can be delayed for now - can Dubai afford the new DWC airport; or can it afford not to build it?

Political headwinds for Thailand's airlines

6 July 2011

The change of government in Thailand may have implications for Thailand’s airline industry according to aviation analysts.

The Puea Thai Party’s landslide victory may be good news for Thai AirAsia and bad news for Thai Airways International and its partner, Tiger Airways. It could also spell trouble for Nok Air, a carrier that has links to the Thai monarchy.

Thai Airways President Piyasvasti Amranand was appointed in June 2009 after the Democrat Party came to power in December 2008. His political backers are Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva and Finance Minister Korn Chatikavanij, who have been swept from power as a result of the July 3 election. Piyavasti is a former energy minister under Gen. Surayud Chulanont’s government, which came to power in October 2006 after a military coup that toppled Thaksin Shinawatra’s government.

Based on what has happened after past elections, a change in government will lead to a change in president at Thai Airways. This can occur because Thailand’s finance ministry owns 51% and ultimately has control of the carrier. Piyavasti tried last year to get the finance ministry to reduce its stake to 49%, so that Thai Airways would no longer be a state-owned enterprise. He told Aviation Week in October 2010 that the finance minister and prime minister supported this initiative. It remains unclear why Piyavasti was unable to achieve this reform.

Piyavasti may in fact be expected to stay with the airline. His achievements include implementing improved corporate governance and helping to stamp out corporate corruption. He has stopped the airline’s board from meddling in the day-to-day running of the airline, and he has ensured that top management is accountable and empowered to manage the carrier.

Piyavasti cleverly made sure that before the election, the Democrat-controlled cabinet approved Thai Airways’ fleet renewal plans. But Piyasvasti was unable to push through the proposed Thai-Tiger venture. This new low-cost carrier joint venture, between Thai Airways and Singapore’s Tiger Airways, needed the approval of the transport minister, Sophon Saram, a member of the Bhumjaithai Party, the Democrats’ junior coalition partner.

The Shinawatra family has long standing connections to Air Asia which means that the Thai Tiger tie (thai!) up is even less likely. The Shinawatras founded Thai telecommunications conglomerate Shin Corp. and it was Shin Corp. that partnered with AirAsia in late 2003 to found Thai AirAsia. The Shinawatra family sold Shin Corp. to the Singapore government’s investment firm Temasek Holdings in January 2006.

Thai Airways owns 39% of Nok Airways and was trying to buy some other shareholders out, so it could achieve 51%. Noks major shareholders include Crown Property Bureau (CPB) Equity and Siam Commercial Bank. CPB Equity is a subsidiary of the Crown Property Bureau, the agency responsible for managing the personal wealth of the king.

Nok’s CEO, Patee Sarasin, is the son of Arsa Sarasin, the principal private secretary of the Thai king, Bhumibol Adulyadej. Nok’s livery and brand are yellow, the color of the monarchy. Thai AirAsia’s brand and livery are red, the color of the Puea Thai Party. Don't expect Puea Thai to do much to assist Nok Air.

A Maverick Festival review - Saturday 2nd July

6 July 2011 from - http://www.rhythmandtheblues.org.uk

"First time visitors to the Maverick Festival at Easton Farm Park - inexcusable really as it's just a few miles up the road. Americana in Suffolk, great weather and lovely venue. And many highlights.....

OK, so not strictly R&B. But plenty for a blues, country blues and roots fan to enjoy. The non music essentials were all there. Excellent local real ale at pub (or less) prices, nice selection of food stalls - duck sausage sandwich was a first! And no queueing for the loos.

There were four stages, so you had to pick and choose. Highlights included:-

Henry Brothers - despite hailing from Norfolk, these guys harmonise as well as the best from the USA. They like to sing about murder and other untimely deaths but as I said, they are from Norfolk.

Songs From The Blue House - rootsy folk/country. Fine songs and arrangements, seemingly purpose built for festivals such as Maverick. Easy listening without any hint of blandness. Catch them if you can.

Stompin' Dave Allen - American roots on banjo and guitar, although he also plays fiddle and piano. "Stompin" because he, erm, stomps whilst he's playing, adding a rhythm to the great playing. Likes a bit of behind your head Hendrix style picking, which is a bit surreal on a banjo. Highlight is "Duelling Banjos" performed in two parts by just one man on one banjo - whilst still 'stompin'.

Society - Country rock all the way from West Sussex. Definitely a cut above, with echoes of the Band, especially the vocal interplay. Even dress a bit like them (see photo, right)

Oh My Darling - Four women from Canada playing country music with some Appalachian thrown in. You can see why they are already picking up roots awards back in their homeland.

Blue Rodeo - Canadian country rock institution, for many it's a mystery why the band never got much beyond cult status in the US or Britain. Even after 30 years, here was a band still playing like they meant it. They have any number of great songs from which to choose, and played many of the big Canadian hits as well as a few extended jams, always melodic, never self indulgent. A real highlight of the day.

We also managed to catch sets, or part sets, from Sadie & the Hot Heads, Dead Rock West, Linda McRae, the Orbitsuns and the Vagaband, who brought Saturday to a close with a suitably lively blend of country, folk, rock, soul & swing (emphasis on the swing).

Last but not least, special mention to Otis Lee Crenshaw, Rich Hall's 'wayward uncle' and sometime country & western stalwart with a very particular take on life. Improvisation, the wonderful 'Don't Hurt Me' and hilarious ad libbing throughout.

There were plenty more we didn't get to see. Annoyingly missed Brooks Williams (my fault), who we know is a great picker and sometimes blues interpreter. The Rosellys and Roosevelt Bandwagon also played Saturday and I'm sure would have been worth a listen - maybe next time!

Congrats to all involved at the Maverick. A masterclass in how to put on a friendly, well organised, perfectly sized festival where music is still the top attraction. Long may it continue.

Will hopefully be back next year, this time for all three days..."

Etihad to Shanghai

5 July 2011

Subject to Government Approval, Etijah Airways will start 1 March 2012 service from Abu Dhabi to Shanghai Pu Dong service, operating 5 times weekly. This will be its 3rd destination in China. Service will increase to daily starting 16 April 2012.

Shanghai schedule as follows:

EY862 AUH1010 – 2145PVG 332 x15
EY867 PVG0020 – 0630AUH 332 x26

Still too little and too late

5 July 2011

The Gulf News is pressing on with reports about what they present as the great new residence visa for foreign property owners. Today GN has a story headed 'New residence visa will increase flexibility for real estate investors'.

But remember that this is not a residence visa. It is amulti-entry visit visa available to some qualifying property owners. And there are plenty of conditions attached - many of them not announced yet.

Sadly the picture is very confused. While the Gulf News seems to think the property market is saved it is clear that the rules have not been determined.

Last Wednesday Gulf News quoted Maj. Gen. Nasser Bin Al Awadi Al Menhali, Assistant Undersecretary for Naturalisation, Residence & Port Affairs, as saying: "Investors who own property worth Dh1 million can get three year mutiple-entry visit visas. However, they have to exit the country every six months". But today they quote 'senior government officials' as saying: "The visa...will allow property investors to sponsor their families and stay in the UAE for three years without leaving."

So they either have to exit the country every six months or they don't. Wait for more 'clarification'.

As for the unannounced conditions, Major General Nasser Bin Al Awadi Al Menhali has told Gulf News that the full details of the law would be made public soon.

The report goes on to point out that: "It is still unclear if the visa provides investors all the usual benefits of a residence visa, such as enabling them to open bank accounts and apply for local driving licences."

Oops. So far there is no evidence that the 3 year visa will restore confidence and increase sales in the property market.
 

Etihad can do Chengdu?

5 July 2011

Etihad Airways said today that it will launch services to Chengdu in southwest China from December 15, but this is subject to government approval.

Chengdu, the capital of Sichuan province and the airline's 69th destination, will be connected to the airline's hub in Abu Dhabi by four non-stop return services per week.

The new Abu Dhabi-Chengdu service would provide the first ever flight link between the UAE and Sichuan province.

Emirates should be pursuing new China routes; Chengdu, Kunming and Chongqing should all be on the list supporting the rapidly growing Chinese outbound travel market.

Li Wei, chairman of Sichuan Airport Group, said: "Etihad Airways is a reputable and well-established airline. We are glad to see Etihad starting a direct service from Chengdu to Abu Dhabi, and we look forward to having more airlines here."

Etihad will operate an Airbus A330-200 aircraft in a two-class configuration on the sector - offering 22 Pearl Business class and 240 Coral Economy class seats.
 

Thailand's new PM Yingluck Shinawatra secures agreement with coalition colleagues

5 July 2011 The Independent

The woman set to become Thailand’s first female prime minister sought to seize the momentum today, securing an agreement with coalition colleagues in order to bolster her party’s mandate and starting work on what she hopes will become her flagship policies.

A day after her Peau Thai (PT) party secured a landslide win, Yingluck Shinawatra announced she would form a five party coalition that would control 299 seats of the 500 in the country’s parliament. Officials said the move was taken to bolster her government’s appeal and to guard action possible interference from the military or her political opponents.

“The expectation is high. We have to get things done as quickly as possible. We are not going to enjoy a grace period,” said the party’s deputy leader, Kanawat Wasinsungworn. He said although PT had won a simply majority, it had been decided to reach out to coalition partners in case there were challenges to the legitimacy of some of those elected. “We need stability,” he added.

By broadening the base of its support, PT will be hoping to avoid a repeat of the 2006 military coup which saw Ms Yingluck’s brother, former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, forced from power and driven into exile. Since 1930, the military has led 18 such coups.

Today, a military commander who is close to those officers involved in the 2006 coup, told Reuters that the army had no such plans. “I can assure that the military has no desire to stray out of its assigned roles,” said General Prawit Wongsuwan. Ms Yingluck may not be greatly relieved by his comments; in 2006 another general gave similar assurances just months before it seized power.

The party headed by the 44-year-old businesswoman has said its priorities will be introducing a series of economic stimulus measures and working to reconcile a still divided nation. Mr Kanawat said the party also had plans to help benefit the rural working class, among whom PT has secured much of its support. Indeed, an election map printed in Thailand’s The Nation newspaper showed a country neatly split between the red of PT in the north and north-east and eastern Bangkok, and the blue of the Democrat party in the south and western Bangkok.

In the village of Nong Jok, where new housing projects have come up amid paddy fields and grazing cattle, Malee Pungchalern explained why she supported PT. “I am very excited. I think we will see some changes? I believe in Thaksin. He is talented,” she said. “This is a victory [for us] because the rich people in Bangkok have money and Thaksin’s policies may not support them as much.”

While PT and Thakin’s support among the rural classe is often talked of, this community west of Bangkok reveals rural communities are themselves changing. Lee Lawadee and her family moved here four years ago and bought a three-bedroom house in a pastel-coloured gated community. She said affordable healthcare schemes introduced by Mr Thaksin when he was prime minister had helped her family and her friends while Ms Yingluck’s plan to introduce a minimum monthly wage of 15,000 baht (£300) for graduates would benefit her son.

Both Mrs Lee and Mrs Malee said they hoped Mr Thaksin would soon return to Thailand. But PT officials, wishing to avoid triggering controversy before they have even formally formed the government, stress that is not a priority for them and say it would be unfair to introduce an amnesty just for one person.

Mr Thaksin has said he is happy in Dubai for now. However, in a comment that may he a sign-post of potential problems ahead, he said he wanted to attend the wedding of his daughter, due to be held in Thailand in December. Speaking from the Middle East, he said: “That is just a wish. Many wishes do not come true. That will depend on the amnesty.”

Fly Dubai's Russian growth

5 July 2011

Get out your maps - flydubai continues its service expansion in Russia. Starting 14 September 2011, it will launch 1 weekly Dubai – Kazan service, followed by 1 weekly Dubai – Ufa from 17 September 2011.

Kazan and Ufa is the carrier’s overall 44th and 45th destination, as well as its 3rd and 4th destination in Russia. It currently operates 2 weekly each to Ekaterinburg and Samara.

Schedule:

Dubai – Kazan
FZ933 DXB1000 – 1510KZN 73H 3
FZ934 KZN1640 – 2145DXB 73H 3

Dubai – Ufa
FZ939 DXB1025 – 1730UFA 73H 6
FZ940 UFA1830 – 2130DXB 73H 6

Singapore's Tiger woes

5 July 2011

Singapore Airlines appears to have screwed up big tine down under.

The low-cost carrier's domestic flights in Australia have been grounded until at least Saturday, after CASA listed several safety and maintenance concerns.

The Civil Aviation Safety Authority initially grounded the airline for five working days. To go any longer than that, CASA must approach the Federal Court, and put a case for extending the grounding.

It is the first time CASA has grounded an entire airline.

Tiger Airways chief executive Tony Davis has rejected CASA's claims, saying he does not accept there are immediate risks to air safety.

He says he hopes services can resume as soon as possible because Australians want competition and lower airfares.

Why the grounding - well this incident did not help - flight TT6207 from Sydney to Melbourne was making its final approach to Avalon Airport just after 11pm on Thursday, when air-traffic controllers at Melbourne's Tullamarine Airport saw the aircraft, which can carry 180 passengers, flying dangerously low as it approached from the north.

It was 15 kilometres from the runway when it was tracked flying just below 500 metres in a zone where the minimum safe altitude is 760 metres.

But was this enough to shut down an airline - after all the terrain alarm would have sounded in the cockpit as the plane dipped below the minimum altitude levels.

It was apparently the second time this year the Singapore-based budget airline had breached the low flight limits.

On June 7, another A320 - cleared to descend to 760 metres north-east of Tullamarine Airport - dropped to just above 600 metres over the outlying Melbourne suburb of Epping.

Singapore Air is the main shareholder of Tiger Airways and has been putting pressure on chief Tony Davis to fix the problems. Davis is an experienced low cost operator. 
 
In a curt statement to the Singapore Stock Exchange, Tiger said: ''The board has directed Mr Tony Davis, group president and chief executive officer of the company, to focus on assisting Tiger Airways Australia to resume operations as soon as possible.''

But it was the second point in the statement - that Chin Yau Seng had been appointed as an additional executive director with immediate effect - that broadcast the message loud and clear. Singapore and Tiger were no longer happy campers.

A former senior executive at Singapore Airlines and chief executive of Silk Air, Chin ''will work with Mr Davis in providing oversight of the rest of the company's interests''.

There are also likely to be repercussions at a political and diplomatic level as the island state has long believed that its national airline has been unfairly targeted by the Australian government.

Expect for instance significant focus on Jetstar's hub operations in Singapore.

The timing of the suspension is unfortunate and maybe deliberately damaging as it is right at the start of the school holidays despite being put on notice right at the start of Easter holidays.

But CASA must have had its reasons; although they appear hard to find in the media. What is clear is that Tiger was making neither money nor friends. The airline has not been profitable and by all accounts has managed to create an unusual amount of animosity among suppliers, state governments and state tourism bodies, particularly in Tasmania and South Australia, demanding cheap landing fees and promotional funds in exchange for promises of greater tourist numbers and benefits that never eventuated.

With Qantas' Jetstar and Virgin Australia already large domestic players it maybe that their was not room for a third carrier; although the presence of Tiger did drive airfares down. Still Tiger has managed to snare less than 6 per cent of the national market in its four years of operation.

The reality is that Tiger is a loss-making airline, it has been grounded and its parent is not at all impressed.

It may not be seen again in Australia.

Winning Smile

4 July 2011 - The Economist

Two months ago, Yingluck Shinawatra was a run-of-the-mill businesswoman and a political neophyte. Now she is set to become Thailand’s first female prime minister after a stunning victory for her opposition party, the Pheu Thai (PT), in Thailand’s election of July 3rd. The election commission announced on Monday that PT won an outright majority, taking 265 of 500 seats in parliament. The ruling Democrat Party took just 159 seats, down from the 170 they enjoy in the current assembly of 480 seats. A handful of smaller parties will share the remainder; some are clambering to join PT in a coalition government. The turnout was nearly 75%, as it was the last time Thais came out to vote, in 2007. The biggest losers are the royalist generals who tried and failed to stop PT in its tracks. The outgoing prime minister, Abhisit Vejjajiva, has announced that he will be stepping down as his party's leader.

Ms Yingluck’s transformation into a popular symbol of resistance to the military-backed coalition is quite a feat. An adept campaigner with a keen sense of the common touch, she capitalised on public grumblings over high prices for food and fuel. The Democrat Party trailed in the polls and struggled to convince voters that it could revive a slowing economy. Its main coalition partner, a breakaway faction of PT’s predecessor, was mired in allegations of graft. Ultra-conservative yellow shirts peeled away more votes that might have gone to the Democrats with their own “Vote No” campaign.

But Ms Yingluck’s victory also has a lot to do with her pedigree as the younger sister of the former prime minister, Thaksin Shinawatra, whose well-oiled political machinery she inherited. Mr Thaksin has called her his “clone”, and everyone knew it, though she insists that voters plumped for her policies and management style. People “didn’t select me because my last name is Shinawatra,” she told reporters jammed into the party headquarters, while jubilant fans cheered in the corridors. The former premier was quick to speak out from his self-imposed exile in Dubai, congratulating his sister on her victory and hailing the results as a vote for “change in a peaceful manner”.

Last year all of Thailand seemed on the brink of a violent upheaval, as Mr Thaksin’s red-shirted supporters clashed with troops on the streets of Bangkok. By the time the protests were put down, 92 people had been killed. The chaos deepened Thailand’s social divisions and hardened the views of the red shirts, whose leaders are now poised to re-enter parliament. Since 2001, Thais have overwhelmingly backed Mr Thaksin and his political parties in four straight elections. His allies have a lock on much of Thailand’s populous north and north-east, while the Democrat Party is solid in the south and won most of Bangkok’s seats.

Mr Abhisit congratulated Ms Yingluck on her win, but managed a dig at Mr Thaksin in a brief concession speech on the evening of July 3rd, saying that PT’s vote was not a “mandate” to grant amnesties to anyone. PT leaders have proposed a political amnesty for Mr Thaksin as path to the sort of reconciliation that might end the years of turmoil that have followed the 2006 coup. But his enemies want him to serve two years in jail for his conviction on abuse of power, a charge that he has dismissed as “Mickey Mouse”. The road ahead is rocky: no wonder that few expect a PT-led government to serve a full, four-year term. Anti-Thaksin protesters have already vowed to resist any attempt to rehabilitate him.

Parliament must convene within 30 days of the election to choose the house speaker, and subsequently to pick the prime minister. He or she is then to select a cabinet, which will be subject to royal appointment. Some insiders have speculated that the party might substitute another candidate for Ms Yingluck, partly as a sop to the army and to palace factions that loathe her brother. But Ms Yingluck’s margin of victory and her personal popularity suggest that Thailand will see its first female prime minister.

This is a smack in the face for the army chief, General Prayuth Chan-ocha, who urged voters on June 14th not to elect “the same people” to run the country and lambasted the red shirts as anti-monarchists. It is hard to see how General Prayuth, who commanded troops in the 2006 coup, could get along with a PT-led government that includes abrasive red-shirt leaders such as Nattawut Saikua, who has been charged with terrorism. But Phongthep Thepkanjana, an adviser to the party and a former minister, brushes off the implied threat. General Prayuth “is one in 65m”, he says. The election result “is the resolution of the people.”

A Thai government wish list

4 July 2011

Just the start up list - the policy list can wait until the government is fully functioning. But no previous Thai government will ever have come under this much scrutiny so it needs to be seen to be clean.

1. free all prisoners jailed or charged under the notorious lèse majesté law

2. end censorship of all types, especially of the internet and community radio stations

3. establish an all party public enquiry into the riots of April and May 2010

4. temporarily re-introduce the 1997 constitution, instead of the present military constitution, and start a process to rewrite the constitution to increase freedom and democracy

5. scrapping the lèse majesté and computer crimes laws that prevent freedom of expression.

6. complete the prosecution of those who closed bkk's airports in 2008

7. if Thaksin returns he has to be arrested and held on bail pending an appeal against his corruption sentence - better to leave him in Dubai until a deal has been agreed for his return

8. no change in PT leader - the people voted for Yingluck - she now has to be seen to be an effective PM
 

Thailand votes - what happens next ?

3 July 2011

It is the end of the 3rd July. Thais have voted - but this may not be their independence day. I fear it is just the next chapter of a political soap opera that still has a long way to run.

Yingluck Shinawatra has won a resounding victory for Peua Thai but whatever the outcome there will be people who declare that the election result is invalid.

Sadly Abhisit and his democrats did not deserve to be elected to power. Abhisit was PM because the courts declared the two previous Thaksin backed governments to be invalid. The Democrats then allied with Newin's BJP party to form an alliance that owed its position to the army who it repaid with dramatic increases in military spending.

Abhisit had a chance to lead. He had a chance to be seen to be fair. He had a chance to prosecute the yellow shirts for their 2008 closure of Bangkok's airports. He failed to peacefully manage the 2010 red shirt occupation of central Bangkok. He had the chance to investigate the 91 deaths resulting from those April/May protests. He failed to do so.

He may indeed be a decent guy. But he was been the wrong guy in the wrong place at the wrong time.

But what of Thaksin. His sister ran a good campaign. If she does in fact become Thailand's first woman prime minister everyone expects that she will have to bring Thaksin back. But his vengeance on those who forced him into exile will be unpleasant. Unless some sort of deal can be done behind the scenes.

There was no viable alternative.

But will the army accept  Yingluck led government. They must have already talked about it behind closed doors. Will the courts find another reason to ban Puea Thai? If they do the red shirts will be back in Bangkok in force? But will a PT led government bring the yellow shirts be back protesting.

Either way this election will not settle anything. All it has shown is that PT is better led and far more effective that the Democrats had expected.

The Democrats tactic of focusing on Bangkok with a campaign that was severely negative was poorly thought through. Bangkok Pundits's analysis explains this in more detail.